2025 NFL Super Bowl Pick, Best Win Total Bets And Top Player Props

The 2025 NFL season is here, and it’s time to lock in predictions. From a projected Super Bowl champion to my favorite win/loss total bets and season-long player props, this article breaks down where I see the most value. With contenders stacked across both conferences and stars poised for breakout years, I’ve zeroed in on the wagers that stand out the most heading into kickoff. Here’s how I’m attacking the new season.

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Top 3 Win Total Best Bets

Jacksonville Over 7.5 Wins (-130)

Jacksonville looks like a prime bounce-back candidate after last year’s 4–13 collapse, and the number at 7.5 wins feels like an overreaction. Trevor Lawrence returns healthy, and new head coach Liam Coen brings an offensive system that should help unlock a young receiving corps led by Brian Thomas Jr. and Heisman winner Travis Hunter. The Jaguars were crushed by turnovers (–15) and a brutal 0–7 mark in close games, factors that tend to normalize year over year. With better luck and Lawrence upright, this roster has enough firepower and defensive upgrades to push back toward .500 or better, making the Over 7.5 a strong play.

New England Under 8.5 Wins (-110)

Oddsmakers have set New England’s win total at 8.5, but that feels too ambitious for a team coming off back-to-back 4–13 seasons. While Mike Vrabel and Josh McDaniels bring credibility to the sideline and second-year quarterback Drake Maye now has Stefon Diggs, Dalton Schultz, and a stronger line, the roster still looks a year away from serious contention. The AFC is loaded with elite quarterbacks, and the Patriots don’t yet have the depth or consistency to keep pace. Even with improvement, expecting a five-win jump is a stretch, making the Under 8.5 the sharper play.

Tennessee Under 6.5 Wins (-145)

The Tennessee Titans look like one of the AFC’s clear rebuilds, making 6.5 wins a tough hurdle to clear. They bottomed out at 3–14 last year, and while No. 1 overall pick Cam Ward brings excitement at quarterback, rookie passers rarely translate to immediate wins. The offense no longer has Derrick Henry to lean on, with Tony Pollard stepping in behind an offensive line that surrendered 52 sacks in 2024. Defensively, the unit ranked third in yards allowed but still gave up 27 points per game thanks to turnovers and poor field position. Jeffery Simmons anchors the line and rookie T’Vondre Sweat adds interior strength, yet the roster remains thin in too many areas. With questions at quarterback, a new coaching staff settling in, and a schedule stacked against them, expecting seven wins is optimistic. The Under 6.5 stands out as the safer bet.

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Top 3 Player Props

Geno Smith (Las Vegas) UNDER 3675.5 Yards Passing (-125)

Geno Smith Under 3,675.5 passing yards is a strong look given his new situation in Las Vegas. The Raiders hired Pete Carroll and brought Smith over to steady the offense, but this isn’t a pass-happy roster. Las Vegas will lean heavily on tight end Brock Bowers, a strong run game led by Alexander Mattison and rookie Ashton Jeanty, and a defense trying to shorten games. Smith has surpassed this yardage mark only once in the past three seasons, and with fewer proven wideouts outside of Bowers and Michael Mayer, the volume just isn’t likely to match his Seattle years. The fit suggests a more conservative, balanced approach, making the Under 3,675.5 the smarter side.

Josh Jacobs (Green Bay) Over 1050.5 Yards Rushing

Josh Jacobs looks like a strong bet to clear 1,050.5 rushing yards in his first season with Green Bay. After a 1,410-yard, 15-touchdown campaign in 2024, Jacobs steps into a Packers offense that leans heavily on the run to balance Jordan Love’s development. Behind an improving line anchored by Zach Tom and Elgton Jenkins, and with defenses forced to respect Love’s passing game and a deep group of receivers, Jacobs should see plenty of favorable looks. Green Bay’s commitment to physical football under Matt LaFleur, combined with Jacobs’ track record of handling heavy workloads, makes him a clear candidate to top this number. If he stays healthy, 1,200+ yards is well within reach, and the Over 1,050.5 offers value.

Justin Jefferson (Minnesota) Over 1200.5 Yards Receiving

Justin Jefferson remains one of the NFL’s most dominant receivers, and even with Minnesota handing the reins to rookie quarterback J.J. McCarthy, the Over 1,200.5 yards is well within reach. Jefferson has topped this mark in three of his first four seasons, including a 1,591-yard effort last year despite uneven quarterback play. With Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson drawing coverage, Jefferson will continue to see favorable matchups as the focal point of the passing attack. McCarthy’s learning curve could lead to some inconsistency, but Jefferson’s route-running and ability to create separation make him a security blanket for a young quarterback. Minnesota’s defense also projects to give up points, ensuring plenty of pass-heavy game scripts. As long as he stays healthy, Jefferson has both the talent and target share to push well beyond 1,200 yards, making the Over a confident play.

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Super Bowl Pick

Baltimore Ravens over Detroit Lions

Baltimore finally looks ready to break through, and the matchup against Detroit in the Super Bowl sets up favorably. Lamar Jackson is coming off his most efficient season, Derrick Henry adds a physical element that few defenses can handle, and the Ravens’ fast, aggressive defense has the balance to contain Detroit’s high-powered attack. The Lions are explosive with Jared Goff, Jahmyr Gibbs, and a deep set of weapons, but Baltimore’s ability to control tempo with its run game and create turnovers on defense gives them the edge. After years of playoff frustration, this is the year John Harbaugh’s team puts it all together, outlasting Detroit to deliver the Ravens their first Lombardi since 2012.

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Check Out My NFC Team Previews