Alcaraz US Open Chances at 56% Before QF | Kalshi Live Odds

Carlos Alcaraz US Open chances sit at 56% on Kalshi before the defending champion faces Ben Shelton in Tuesday night's quarterfinal at Arthur Ashe Stadium.

Alcaraz has strengthened his position considerably as the tournament has moved into its final week.

Kalshi currently makes him the clear men's title favorite at about 56%, ahead of Alexander Zverev at roughly 27%. Shelton remains below 10% in the outright market despite reaching his second U.S. Open quarterfinal.

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Carlos Alcaraz US Open Chances Rise to 56%

Alcaraz entered the final stages of the tournament as the player the market expected everyone else to catch.

That position has only strengthened.

His title probability was around 49% on Polymarket before his fourth-round match against Tommy Paul.

After beating Paul 6-4, 6-3, 6-4, Alcaraz has moved into the mid-50s on Kalshi.

The shift reflects both his own performance and the changing draw around him.

Alcaraz has not dropped a set through four matches.

His win over Paul extended his Grand Slam winning streak to 18 matches and sent him into his fifth U.S. Open quarterfinal in six appearances.

The wrist injury that kept him out for nearly five months was the biggest uncertainty when he arrived in New York.

Four rounds later, the market is treating him much more like the defending champion than a player returning from a long layoff.

Alcaraz Is 78% to Beat Ben Shelton

The separate match market makes Alcaraz an even stronger favorite Tuesday night.

Kalshi currently gives him about a 78% chance to beat Shelton.

Shelton sits around 23%.

That gap comes despite Shelton producing one of his strongest performances of the tournament in the fourth round.

The American defeated Stefanos Tsitsipas 6-2, 6-3, 6-4 without facing a break point.

He won 83% of his first-serve points and reached the quarterfinals in straight sets.

Alcaraz has nevertheless controlled their previous meetings.

He owns a 3-0 career record against Shelton entering Tuesday.

The matchup presents a clear contrast.

Shelton brings one of the biggest serves and most aggressive first-strike games remaining in the draw.

Alcaraz has countered power with movement, return quality and the ability to take control of longer rallies.

Tuesday's Arthur Ashe crowd should heavily favor Shelton.

The market still expects Alcaraz to advance.

Alcaraz Is Chasing the First US Open Repeat Since Federer

The title chase carries a historical angle that goes beyond another Grand Slam trophy.

Alcaraz won the U.S. Open last year.

If he wins again in 2026, he would become the first man to successfully defend the men's singles title in New York since Roger Federer completed his fifth consecutive championship in 2008.

No men's champion since Federer has returned the following year and won again.

Alcaraz began the tournament after 139 days away from singles competition because of his wrist injury.

He has moved from simply testing the wrist to becoming the player most likely to leave New York with the trophy.

He also has an opportunity to add an eighth Grand Slam title to his career total.

His route remains difficult.

Shelton comes first.

If Alcaraz advances, an American would be waiting again in the semifinal, with Frances Tiafoe and Alex Michelsen meeting in the other quarterfinal on his side of the draw.

Alexander Zverev remains the closest challenger in the outright market from the opposite half.

The 56% number therefore does not mean Alcaraz has an easy path.

It means the market currently gives him better odds of winning the tournament than the rest of the individual contenders by a wide margin.

Tuesday Night Is the Next Test of the Repeat Chase

Alcaraz entered New York with questions about whether his wrist would allow him to survive two weeks of Grand Slam tennis.

Those questions have changed.

He is now four wins into the tournament, has not lost a set and is one victory away from another U.S. Open semifinal.

The title market has moved with him.

A player who was below 50% earlier in the week now sits around 56% on Kalshi.

Tuesday night determines whether that move continues.

Shelton has the serve, the crowd and the home-stage confidence to make the quarterfinal uncomfortable.

Alcaraz has the 3-0 head-to-head record, an 18-match Grand Slam winning streak and the shortest title price in the field.

If he reaches the semifinal, the attempt to become the first back-to-back men's U.S. Open champion since Federer moves one step closer.

If Shelton wins, the strongest remaining title market gets completely reshaped in one night.

For more U.S. Open coverage, visit the latest tennis picks and predictions at Winners & Whiners.

Prediction-market prices can change in real time. Percentages cited reflect Kalshi prices available at the time of writing. Trading involves risk. Promotional terms and eligibility requirements can change.