Carlos Alcaraz U.S. Open Chances Rise to 40% on Kalshi

Carlos Alcaraz U.S. Open chances are climbing as the defending champion moves deeper into the tournament.

Kalshi currently gives Alcaraz a 40% chance to win the 2026 U.S. Open men's singles title, making him the clear leader in the prediction market entering the third round.

Alexander Zverev is currently his closest challenger at 22%, while the full U.S. Open winner market has generated approximately $17.5 million in trading volume.

Kalshi does not set traditional sportsbook odds. Its percentages are created by traders buying and selling event contracts, so a player's implied probability can move throughout the tournament as results, injuries and the draw change.

You can follow the U.S. Open men's singles winner market on Kalshi.

Carlos Alcaraz U.S. Open Chances Reach 40%

Alcaraz entered this market around the mid-30% range, but his probability has moved higher after successfully navigating his opening two matches in New York.

The defending champion opened the tournament with a straight-sets victory over Roman Safiullin before facing a more difficult test against Jaime Faria in the second round.

Faria took the opening set, but Alcaraz responded emphatically.

The Spaniard won the next three sets to complete a 4-6, 6-0, 6-3, 6-2 victory and advance to the third round.

That recovery matters for the outright market because Alcaraz entered the U.S. Open with some uncertainty surrounding his physical condition after a wrist injury interrupted his season.

Two wins into the tournament, he remains alive, his title defense is intact and traders have pushed his championship probability to 40%.

Alcaraz Faces Yibing Wu in the Third Round

The next immediate test comes against China's Yibing Wu.

Kalshi's match market currently gives Alcaraz approximately a 90% chance to defeat Wu, leaving him as a substantial favorite to reach the fourth round.

That does not mean the match is automatic.

Alcaraz already dropped the first set against Faria, showing that there is still room for volatility even when he enters a match as a heavy favorite.

Still, the combination of his championship pedigree, recovery from the slow start against Faria and favorable third-round market has strengthened his overall U.S. Open position.

A routine win over Wu could push his outright title probability higher again, particularly if one of the other leading contenders struggles or exits elsewhere in the draw.

Why Is Alcaraz Leading the U.S. Open Market?

The biggest factor is that Alcaraz is both the defending champion and one of the strongest remaining players in the field.

His market position has also benefited from developments around the rest of the draw.

Zverev currently sits well behind him at approximately 22%, while several other contenders are priced in the low double digits or below.

That gives Alcaraz a significant advantage at the top of the board without making him an overwhelming favorite.

A 40% probability still means the market assigns roughly a 60% combined chance to everyone else in the tournament.

That distinction is important. Alcaraz leads the field, but multiple rounds remain and Grand Slam markets can change dramatically after a single match.

What Could Move Alcaraz U.S. Open Odds Next?

Friday's third-round match against Wu is the immediate catalyst.

An efficient straight-sets victory would likely reinforce Alcaraz's position as the tournament favorite. A difficult five-set match, visible physical issue or unexpected loss would move the market in the opposite direction.

The results of his closest competitors matter as well.

If Zverev or another major contender exits early, the probability assigned to Alcaraz can increase even without a major change in his own performance.

That is one of the reasons prediction-market probabilities are useful during a tournament. The price reflects not only whether a player wins, but how the entire path to the championship changes around him.

For more tournament analysis and daily match coverage, visit the latest tennis picks and predictions at Winners & Whiners.

Kalshi U.S. Open Live Chances

At the latest market check:

• Carlos Alcaraz: 40%
• Alexander Zverev: 22%
• Alcaraz to beat Yibing Wu: approximately 90%

Alcaraz has therefore strengthened his position since the beginning of the tournament, but the title chase remains far from resolved.

Current Carlos Alcaraz U.S. Open title chance: 40% on Kalshi.

Prediction-market prices can change at any time. Trading involves risk, and users should review eligibility requirements and market rules before participating.