CJ Carr Heisman Chances at 11% on Kalshi Live Odds

CJ Carr Heisman chances are at 11% on Kalshi before Notre Dame faces Wisconsin on Sunday night at Lambeau Field.

The Fighting Irish quarterback sits second in the live 2026 Heisman Trophy market behind Miami's Darian Mensah at 14%, while Texas quarterback Arch Manning is at 9%. More than $14 million has already been traded on the market.

Carr entered the weekend around 12%, but his slight drop has nothing to do with a Notre Dame result. The Irish have not played yet. Instead, Mensah's five-touchdown season opener at Stanford changed the early Heisman picture before Carr gets his first chance to respond Sunday at 7:30 p.m. ET.

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CJ Carr Heisman Chances Sit at 11% on Kalshi

Carr remains firmly in the first tier of the Heisman race despite slipping one percentage point before Notre Dame's season opener.

Kalshi currently has Mensah at 14%, Carr at 11% and Manning at 9%, leaving just five percentage points between the three leading quarterbacks.

The movement around Carr is a useful reminder of how quickly an early Heisman market can react.

Carr has not thrown a pass in 2026. He has not lost a game or suffered a setback. Another contender simply produced the first major quarterback performance of the season.

That gives Sunday's game additional significance.

Notre Dame opens against Wisconsin in the Shamrock Series at Lambeau Field, with NBC and Peacock carrying the game nationally. A strong performance would give traders their first new data point on a quarterback who entered September among the Heisman favorites.

Darian Mensah Jumps Carr After Five-Touchdown Opener

Mensah supplied the first major move near the top of the Heisman board Friday night.

In his Miami debut, Mensah completed 27 of 30 passes for a career-high 401 yards and five touchdowns as the Hurricanes routed Stanford 45-6.

That performance moved his Kalshi Heisman probability up five points to 14%.

Carr, meanwhile, slipped from roughly 12% to 11% while waiting for Notre Dame's opener.

The comparison makes Sunday's storyline straightforward: Mensah has already put a major performance on the board, and Carr now gets an opportunity to answer.

Carr has his own statistical case entering the season.

He started all 12 games for Notre Dame in 2025 and threw for 2,741 yards and 24 touchdowns. His 24 touchdown passes tied the most by a Notre Dame quarterback through his first 12 career starts since 1966.

He also threw at least one touchdown pass in every game and produced nine games with multiple touchdown passes.

With Carr behind center, Notre Dame averaged 41.8 points per game, the second-highest scoring average in the country.

Among returning Power Four quarterbacks, Carr ranked first last season in yards per completion at 14.06 and second in both yards per attempt at 9.35 and touchdown rate at 8.2%.

That production helped make Carr a preseason Heisman contender rather than a player trying to break into the race from the outside.

Wisconsin Gives Carr a National Heisman Stage

Carr could hardly ask for a more visible setting for his first game of the season.

Notre Dame and Wisconsin meet at Lambeau Field in Green Bay at 7:30 p.m. ET in the 2026 Shamrock Series.

It will be Notre Dame's first game at Lambeau and the first meeting between the Irish and Badgers since 2021, when Notre Dame pulled away for a 41-13 victory at Soldier Field.

The Sunday-night window also separates Carr from most of the crowded Saturday college football schedule.

That matters in a race driven partly by national attention.

Carr enters the season on the Maxwell Award, Walter Camp Player of the Year and Johnny Unitas Golden Arm Award watch lists. Notre Dame also begins the year ranked No. 4, putting both Carr and the Irish into the national conversation immediately.

The Heisman implications go beyond one box score.

Quarterbacks generally need their teams to remain relevant in the national championship race, and Carr starts the season leading a Notre Dame team expected to contend for the College Football Playoff.

If the Irish meet those expectations, Carr should continue getting high-profile opportunities throughout the fall.

But the first one comes Sunday.

Can Carr Retake the Heisman Lead Against Wisconsin?

Carr does not necessarily need to match Mensah's 401 yards and five touchdowns to move his Heisman chances higher.

The circumstances are different, and Heisman markets react to more than raw yardage.

An efficient multi-touchdown performance, a convincing Notre Dame victory and a few nationally replayed moments could all strengthen Carr's position.

The opposite is also true.

An uneven opener would give Mensah and the other contenders an early opportunity to create more separation.

That is why Carr's current 11% probability is more interesting before the Wisconsin game than it would be on an ordinary offseason day.

There is an obvious catalyst only hours away.

For additional analysis of the matchup, check the latest college football predictions and picks from Winners & Whiners.

The early Heisman lead currently belongs to Mensah at 14%.

Carr is next at 11%.

Sunday night at Lambeau is his first opportunity to change that.

Kalshi market probabilities and prices can change in real time. Percentages cited reflect the market at the time of writing. Promotional terms and eligibility requirements can also change.