MLB Best Bets for Saturday, August 22nd
Saturday's MLB Best Bets card focuses on five wagers from the current Winners & Whiners free-picks slate: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5, New York Mets moneyline, St. Louis Cardinals moneyline, Minnesota Twins-San Diego Padres Under 8, and Baltimore Orioles moneyline.
The Saturday evening board gives us a useful mix of markets without forcing every play through a heavy favorite. Los Angeles is the one run-line selection, the Mets and Cardinals offer near-even or plus-money side prices, San Diego-Minnesota gives us a full-game total, and Baltimore provides another plus-money moneyline.
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Saturday MLB Best Bets at a Glance
- Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-122)
- New York Mets ML (-101)
- St. Louis Cardinals ML (+110)
- Minnesota Twins vs San Diego Padres Under 8 (-105)
- Baltimore Orioles ML (+113)
MLB Best Bet: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-122) vs Pirates
The first Saturday play comes from the Pittsburgh Pirates vs Los Angeles Dodgers prediction, where Los Angeles is again one of the biggest favorites on the board.
Best Bet: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-122)
The Dodgers are laying roughly -260 on the full-game moneyline, which is too expensive for a Best Bets roundup. The run line offers a much more reasonable way to back the better team behind Tarik Skubal.
Skubal enters with a 2.85 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP, while Jared Jones carries a 4.78 ERA for Pittsburgh. Los Angeles also enters Saturday on a four-game winning streak after beating the Pirates 5-4 in 10 innings Friday night.
The current matchup page backs Los Angeles on the run line because the starting-pitching gap and home-field setup still favor the Dodgers. The run line asks more than the moneyline, but it also cuts the price dramatically.
Pittsburgh has been competitive offensively and Jones has enough strikeout ability to keep this from becoming automatic. Still, if Skubal controls the Pirates lineup and Los Angeles creates a lead in the middle innings, the Dodgers have the profile to separate.
Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers 5, Pittsburgh Pirates 2
Pick: Dodgers -1.5 (-122)
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MLB Best Bet: New York Mets ML (-101) vs White Sox
The New York Mets vs Chicago White Sox prediction gives us one of the cleanest near-pick'em prices on the evening board.
Best Bet: New York Mets ML (-101)
New York has won four of its last five games and gets the stronger starting-pitcher profile with Christian Scott facing Luis Castillo.
Scott enters 4-3 with a 3.51 ERA and 1.29 WHIP across 84.2 innings. Castillo is 4-9 with a 4.99 ERA and has allowed 19 home runs.
Chicago has been much better at home than on the road and still owns the stronger season-long offense, so this is not a mismatch. The appeal is the price. The Mets do not need to cover a run line, and the current market is effectively asking bettors to choose a side.
The W&W matchup handicap sides with New York because Scott's current pitching numbers and the Mets' recent form give them enough of an edge in a game priced close to even.
Prediction: New York Mets 4, Chicago White Sox 3
Pick: Mets ML (-101)
MLB Best Bet: St. Louis Cardinals ML (+110) vs Phillies
The strongest plus-money side on the card comes from the St. Louis Cardinals vs Philadelphia Phillies prediction.
Best Bet: St. Louis Cardinals ML (+110)
Philadelphia enters on a six-game winning streak, but Andrew Painter remains the vulnerable part of the matchup.
Painter is 2-8 with a 6.43 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP. He has allowed 98 hits and 17 home runs in 85.1 innings, creating a clear route for St. Louis to generate offense early.
The Cardinals also bring a winning road record into Philadelphia and have already taken two of the first three meetings between the teams this season.
St. Louis is not being priced as the better overall team. That is why the moneyline is plus money. The bet is specifically about whether the starting-pitcher setup gives the Cardinals enough of an advantage to win this game before Philadelphia's stronger recent form becomes decisive.
At +110, the W&W side recommendation is more attractive than taking protection on the run line.
Prediction: St. Louis Cardinals 5, Philadelphia Phillies 4
Pick: Cardinals ML (+110)
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MLB Best Bet: Twins vs Padres Under 8 (-105)
Saturday's best total comes from the Minnesota Twins vs San Diego Padres prediction at Petco Park.
Best Bet: Twins-Padres Under 8 (-105)
San Diego is sending Casey Mize to the mound after two strong bounce-back starts. Mize owns a 3.18 ERA and 1.07 WHIP for the season and has allowed only two earned runs across his last 12 innings.
The Padres' home environment also supports the lower-scoring case. San Diego has played a large share of its home games under the total, and Petco Park remains one of the better run-suppression settings on the Saturday schedule.
Minnesota counters with Dean Kremer, whose 5.40 ERA introduces obvious risk to an under. The Padres can score enough against him to threaten the number themselves.
The reason the under still gets the nod is that Minnesota's road offense has been inconsistent, while Mize has the right contact-management profile for this park. If San Diego does most of the scoring and Minnesota stays in the two- or three-run range, the total can remain below eight.
Prediction: San Diego Padres 4, Minnesota Twins 2
Pick: Under 8 (-105)
MLB Best Bet: Baltimore Orioles ML (+113) vs Rays
The final Saturday selection comes from the Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles prediction.
Best Bet: Baltimore Orioles ML (+113)
Tampa Bay is the road favorite at roughly -136, but the W&W matchup projection calls for Baltimore to win 3-2.
The Orioles snapped a four-game losing streak Friday with a 5-3 win over Tampa Bay. Pete Alonso hit his 30th home run of the season, while Baltimore's lineup produced enough power to hand the Rays another loss.
Saturday's pitching matchup is relatively close on paper. Shane McClanahan enters with a 3.25 ERA for Tampa Bay, while Brandon Young owns a 3.52 ERA for Baltimore.
That makes the price the key part of the handicap.
Baltimore does not need to be the clearly superior team for +113 to be useful. The Orioles need to turn a competitive home matchup into a win often enough for the plus-money return to matter.
The risk is Tampa Bay's overall record and McClanahan's ability to limit damage. But in a game W&W projects Baltimore to win outright, taking the Orioles at plus money is the cleanest way to express the pick.
Prediction: Baltimore Orioles 3, Tampa Bay Rays 2
Pick: Orioles ML (+113)
Saturday MLB Best Bets Card
- Pirates vs Dodgers: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-122)
- Mets vs White Sox: New York Mets ML (-101)
- Cardinals vs Phillies: St. Louis Cardinals ML (+110)
- Twins vs Padres: Under 8 (-105)
- Rays vs Orioles: Baltimore Orioles ML (+113)
These recommendations come directly from Saturday's same-day Winners & Whiners free-picks coverage. The objective of the roundup is to collect the strongest current markets in one place without changing the underlying side or total recommendation from the individual game analysis.
The evening card begins with St. Louis-Philadelphia shortly after 6 p.m. ET, followed by Tampa Bay-Baltimore, New York-Chicago and Pittsburgh-Los Angeles shortly after 7 p.m. The Twins and Padres close this group at 8:40 p.m. ET.
That schedule leaves little room for stale numbers. Before locking in any wager, confirm the listed line has not moved materially. A Cardinals moneyline at +110 is a different proposition than the same team at -105, and a full-game total moving from 8 to 8.5 changes the Twins-Padres under.
For more matchup-by-match analysis throughout the night, return to the Winners & Whiners MLB free picks hub.
MLB Best Bets for August 22: Final Picks
Saturday's card gives us three moneylines, one run line and one total without paying an extreme favorite price.
The Dodgers run line lets us back Skubal and the stronger home team without laying roughly -260. The Mets sit near a pick'em behind the better starting-pitcher numbers. St. Louis offers a plus-money shot against Painter, San Diego-Minnesota gives us a Petco Park under, and Baltimore closes the card as a home underdog in a matchup W&W projects the Orioles to win.
Final MLB Best Bets: Dodgers -1.5 (-122), Mets ML (-101), Cardinals ML (+110), Twins-Padres Under 8 (-105), Orioles ML (+113).
