Upcoming Free Picks

Bellator 206: Aaron Pico vs. Leandro Higo - 9/29/2018 Betting Prediction

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

At Bellator 206, featherweight super-prospect, Aaron Pico, gets his toughest test to date against savvy Brazilian veteran, Leandro Higo. Will the hype train keep rolling or does the experience of Higo lead to a surprising upset?

A Star in the Making?

As a teenager, Aaron Pico was a hugely accomplished freestyle wrestler and Golden Gloves boxing champion. At only 19 years of age, Pico qualified for the Olympic trials and came extremely close to being a part of the men’s national freestyle wrestling team. Given his athletic gifts and will to succeed, it’s only logical he transitioned to MMA.

Unlike most fighters who make their professional debut on regional shows, Pico turned professional under the bright lights of Bellator and paid the price. Getting caught by an uppercut and submitted in the first minute of his debut, things couldn’t have gone worse for the young prodigy. However, Pico came back with a vengeance and annihilated his next three opponents by way of first-round stoppage. The KO victory over Justin Linn was particularly impressive, as his opponent was unconscious before he even hit the canvas.

Pico is athletic, powerful, a great wrestler and throws excellent boxing combinations. However, he’s supremely aggressive and leaves openings on the feet. His submission defense is also a question mark.

How Does Higo Approach This Fight?

Make no mistake, Leandro Higo is a massive step up in competition from anyone Pico has faced. The Brazilian has decent hands and is an opportunist submission threat. The biggest problem is that he’s an average-sized bantamweight, and this is a featherweight bout.

While Higo has a few knockout wins on his record, he’s not a power puncher, and he’s even less likely to score a KO at a higher weight class. Perhaps Higo will aim to rock his opponent on the feet and snatch up a submission on the mat.

In addition to the size disadvantage, Higo is nowhere near the caliber of wrestler that Pico is. It will be the American fighter that decides whether the fight will take place on the feet or the ground. Still, Higo is a skilled combatant who is coming for a win, not a paycheck. If Pico doesn’t respect him, he will undoubtedly pay for it.

Who Wins?

These betting lines are wide, but I can’t recommend a playing the underdog because it seems so unfavorable stylistically. There is no way Higo is landing a takedown - he either has to score a club and sub finish or somehow lock in a submission off his back. I don’t think Pico gives him that opportunity.

Ultimately I believe someone, probably Higo, is getting finished here. It’s hard to envision this going all three rounds.

Pick: Fight doesn’t go to decision -245

Are you going through a tough run lately? Check out my advice for recovering from a betting losing streak.

Free Ultimate Guide to MMA Betting

Free Ultimate Guide to MMA Betting

You want to win? This guide was created for you as The Bible for the MMA Sports Bettor. The most compherensive collection of strategies, tips, and techniques to consistently grow your bankroll.

Download it now!

You want to win? This guide was created for you as The Bible for the MMA Sports Bettor.
Download it now!

Pig Lord

Sup fools? My name is Pig Lord. I’m a degenerate and I like to gamble on MMA.

I’m not some fraudulent turd trying to sell predictions by marketing myself as the #1 expert on MMA. I’m just a solid capper who has managed to generate consistent profits by betting on fights for the past few years.

I enjoy writing breakdowns from a gambling perspective and helping people to earn money while sitting in front of a computer in their undergarments. My predictions are always free, and you can find more at my website!

Login

Forgot Password?
Forgot your password? Enter your email and we'll send you a reset token:

Return to login
Enter the token from your email and a new password. Don't forget to check your spam folder if you didn't get the email.

Upcoming Free Picks

Bank the Bet Podcast
Thursday, Jan 17
NBA
#541 New York Knicks 228
#542 Washington Wizards -6.5
3:05pm
View Pick
#543 Philadelphia 76ers 224.5
#544 Indiana Pacers -3
7:05pm
View Pick
#545 Sacramento Kings 230
#546 Charlotte Hornets -3
7:05pm
View Pick
#547 Phoenix Suns
#548 Toronto Raptors
7:35pm
View Pick
#549 Chicago Bulls 212
#550 Denver Nuggets -12
9:05pm
View Pick
#551 Los Angeles Lakers 226
#552 Oklahoma City Thunder -10
9:35pm
View Pick
NCAAB
#601 FAU 151
#602 Marshall -9
7:00pm
View Pick
#603 Charleston 139.5
#604 Northeastern -3.5
7:00pm
View Pick
#605 Georgia Southern -2
#606 Troy 161
7:00pm
View Pick
#607 UNCW 152
#608 Hofstra -12.5
7:00pm
View Pick
#609 James Madison 134
#610 Delaware -4
7:00pm
View Pick
#611 Towson 146
#612 Drexel -5.5
7:00pm
View Pick
#613 Wright State -5.5
#614 Youngstown State 141.5
7:00pm
View Pick
#615 Southern Miss -4.5
#616 Charlotte 122.5
7:00pm
View Pick
#617 Louisiana Tech 129
#618 ODU -6.5
7:00pm
View Pick
#619 Northern Kentucky -9
#620 Cleveland State 142
7:00pm
View Pick
#621 UTSA -3.5
#622 Middle Tennessee State 137.5
7:30pm
View Pick
#637 Georgia State -5.5
#638 South Alabama 141
8:00pm
View Pick
#635 UTEP 132
#636 UAB -8
8:00pm
View Pick
#633 Michigan State -1
#634 Nebraska 144
8:00pm
View Pick
#631 Illinois - Chicago -3
#632 Wisconsin-Milwaukee 142.5
8:00pm
View Pick
#629 IUPUI 163
#630 Wisconsin-Green Bay -4
8:00pm
View Pick
#627 FIU 163.5
#628 Western Kentucky -13
8:00pm
View Pick
#625 Arkansas - Little Rock 140
#626 Texas State -11.5
8:00pm
View Pick
#623 Arkansas State 139.5
#624 UT Arlington -4.5
8:00pm
View Pick
#639 Loyola Marymount
#640 Gonzaga
9:00pm
View Pick
#641 Stanford 138
#642 Washington -10
9:00pm
View Pick
#643 Oregon 130
#644 Arizona -4.5
9:00pm
View Pick
#645 San Francisco -6.5
#646 Pacific 138
9:00pm
View Pick
#647 Hawaii 148
#648 Cal State Northridge -2
10:00pm
View Pick
#649 California
#650 Washington State
10:00pm
View Pick
#651 Oregon State 141
#652 Arizona State -5.5
10:00pm
View Pick
#653 San Diego -10
#654 Portland 134
10:00pm
View Pick
#657 UCSB -3
#658 UC Davis 131.5
10:00pm
View Pick
#659 Santa Clara
#660 St Marys
11:00pm
View Pick
#661 BYU -2.5
#662 Pepperdine 163
11:00pm
View Pick
NHL
#31 New Jersey 6
#32 N.Y. Islanders -150
7:05pm
View Pick
#33 St. Louis 5.5
#34 Boston -175
7:05pm
View Pick
#41 Anaheim 5.5
#42 Minnesota -180
8:05pm
View Pick
#43 Los Angeles 5.5
#44 Dallas -175
8:35pm
View Pick
Saturday, Jan 19
NCAAB
#629 James Madison
#630 Drexel
2:00pm
View Pick
Sunday, Jan 20
NFL
#311 Los Angeles Rams 56.5
#312 New Orleans Saints -3.5
3:05pm
View Pick
#313 New England Patriots 58
#314 Kansas City Chiefs -3
6:40pm
View Pick