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The Ultimate Fighter 28 Finale: Ji Yeon Kim vs. Antonina Shevchenko - 11/30/2018 Betting Prediction

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

It’s a great weekend for combat sports with lots of fights to bet on. One fight that stands out is the women’s flyweight contest between Antonina Shevchenko and Ji Yeon Kim.

A Precision Muay Thai Striker

As the sister of one of the best women in mixed martial arts, Valentina Shevchenko, Antonina also comes from a muay thai background and is a decorated champion in the sport. As you’d expect, the older Shevchenko sister likes to keep her MMA fights standing - although I don’t think she’s as well-rounded as Valentina.

In her Contender Series bout against a totally outmatched opponent in Jaymee Nievara, Shevchenko performed a demolition job in the clinch. With precision striking from the southpaw stance, Shevchenko is going to be a tough test for any opponent so long as the fight stays vertical.

While her win against Nievara was emphatic, there are some questions about Shevchenko that I’d like to see answered. Firstly, her stance is extremely rigid and she has little to no head movement. No one has tested her defense so far in her MMA career, but she’s getting a much higher caliber of opponent in the Korean warrior, Ji Yeon Kim.

From the glimpses I’ve seen, I don’t think Shevchenko has much of a ground game. Still, this is an area she must be working on now that she’s in the UFC.

Can the Korean Fighter Cause Another Upset?

Ji Yeon Kim will always have a warm place in my heart for the fortune I won betting on her against Justine Kish. While that decision could have gone either way, Kim proved that she can make a fight competitive as a heavy underdog.

Predominantly a boxer, Kim head hunts a lot but her hands are sharp. The Korean will have a four-inch reach advantage and I believe her right hand will find a home on the chin of Shevchenko. Kim doesn’t have the plethora of offensive weapons that her opponent does, but she can absolutely find success with her boxing.

On the mat, Kim should have the advantage. She’s a purple belt in jiu-jitsu and watching some of her footage from Road FC, looks to be a competent grappler. Things will get very interesting if the fight hits the ground, although I question whether Kim has the wrestling ability to take down such a physically strong opponent.

Who Wins?

The most likely scenario for this contest is Shevchenko landing the cleaner strikes on the feet and earning a dominant decision victory - but do you really want to play an unproven fighter at -310? I know Antonina has a famous last name, but these lines are wide.

I think it’s entirely possible that Kim can land her right hand repeatedly and perhaps have some success on the mat as well. I’ll take my chances with the +250 underdog for a small wager.

Pick: Ji Yeon Kim +250

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I’m not some fraudulent turd trying to sell predictions by marketing myself as the #1 expert on MMA. I’m just a solid capper who has managed to generate consistent profits by betting on fights for the past few years.

I enjoy writing breakdowns from a gambling perspective and helping people to earn money while sitting in front of a computer in their undergarments. My predictions are always free, and you can find more at my website!

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