Upcoming Free Picks

UFC 230: Chris Weidman vs. Ronaldo Souza - 11/3/2018 Betting Prediction

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

After an injury to Luke Rockhold forced him out of his bout with Chris Weidman, Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza was removed from his fight with David Branch to create the new middleweight co-main event. This card is serving as clarification for the top of the middleweight division and we could see one of these fighters earn a title shot on short notice by the end of the night. This classic wrestler vs. grappler matchup is not what we expected but it is still an outstanding matchup between two of the very best at 185 pounds.

Another Brazilian legend tests Weidman

Chris Weidman (14-3) has taken out the best Brazilian middleweights ever to grace the octagon. After an early win over Demian Maia, he won the title from Anderson Silva and defended it in two strange and unforgettable fights before defending against Lyoto Machida and Vitor Belfort. After picking up the first loss of his MMA career and losing the belt to Luke Rockhold, Weidman went on a bit of a skid. He was knocked out twice more by Yoel Romero and Gegard Mousasi and some considered Chris Weidman’s time as a contender to be over. That proved to be untrue when Weidman submitted current contender, Kelvin Gastelum in July of 2017. After considerable recovery time, Weidman has a chance to build off that win and put himself back in line for the belt.

Weidman’s most recent fight, though it was over a year ago was very telling of his mental rebound and his ground game. After three straight losses we had to wonder if he lost some confidence but Weidman looked better than ever when he defeated Kelvin Gastelum in New York. Not that MMA math should ever be used but Weidman looked far more comfortable fighting the rising Gastelum than Souza did and proved how good his ground game is in the process. If this fight goes to the ground, do not expect Jacare to knife through Weidman’s guard.

Chris Weidman matches up well with Jacare because of his wrestling background. The former Division I wrestler is not easy to get to the mat as we saw against Demian Maia. Maia went zero for seven on takedown attempts against Weidman. In an unusual strategy against Maia, Weidman, a black belt himself, trusted his ground game enough to take the jiu-jitsu expert to the mat on four occasions. Jacare is obviously a better striker than Maia but Weidman would love to strike with the Brazilian and get himself in place for some ground and pound.  

Jacare guns for another prestigious belt

At 38 years old, there are few milestones left for Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza (25-6, 1 NC) to accomplish in martial arts. The sixth degree Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt is a multiple time world grappling champion and has earned titles in DREAM and Strikeforce before joining the UFC in 2013. Since then, he has really not slowed down, going 8-3 under the UFC banner with two of those losses coming by split decision. His most recent fight against Kelvin Gastelum was essentially a toss of the coin and could have gone either way with no complaints. Because of how close that fight was, Jacare will have a reasonable claim to a title shot if he can get past Chris Weidman.

Jacare is known for his grappling but he is an incredibly well-rounded fighter with solid striking. In his career, Souza has wins by submission and seven by knockout. Notable knockout finishes came against outstanding strikers including Derek Brunson (twice), Vitor Belfort, and Yushin Okami. Souza has fought killers throughout his entire career and holds submission wins over the likes of Robbie Lawler, Gegard Mousasi, and Tim Boetsch. With this kind of resume, we can be certain that Jacare will not crumble under the pressure. He is ready for Weidman, even on short notice.

It will be interesting to see how Souza approaches this fight against a strong wrestler in Weidman. He is not especially known for his submissions from the back and has zero triangle wins on his record. Weidman has proven that he can fight from the top against high-level grapplers without putting himself in danger so Souza will likely be safest on the feet until a clear-cut opportunity to score a takedown presents itself. If he finds a way to get Weidman on his back, Souza will need to secure a submission or he may not get another chance.

Prediction

Chris Weidman’s striking ability along with his top pressure as a wrestler make him a big favorite in this one. His takedown defense is amazing so it is not likely that Souza will be able to blow through him into a submission in a three-round fight. As long as he can avoid getting caught on the feet and is smart with his ground and pound, this is a favorable matchup for Chris Weidman to come back and campaign for a title shot.

Pick: Chris Weidman -171

Check out our free Ultimate Guide to MMA Betting.

Free Ultimate Guide to MMA Betting

Free Ultimate Guide to MMA Betting

You want to win? This guide was created for you as The Bible for the MMA Sports Bettor. The most compherensive collection of strategies, tips, and techniques to consistently grow your bankroll.

Download it now!

You want to win? This guide was created for you as The Bible for the MMA Sports Bettor.
Download it now!

Nick Cowie

Nick graduated with an environmental science degree and is a freelance writer, covering anything from fighting to forestry. He is a washed up swimmer and a sports and comedy enthusiast.

Login

Forgot Password?
Forgot your password? Enter your email and we'll send you a reset token:

Return to login
Enter the token from your email and a new password. Don't forget to check your spam folder if you didn't get the email.

Upcoming Free Picks

Monday, Mar 18
NBA
#533 Detroit Pistons -4.5
#534 Cleveland Cavaliers 214
7:05pm
View Pick
#535 Utah Jazz -5.5
#536 Washington Wizards 228.5
7:05pm
View Pick
#537 Denver Nuggets 222.5
#538 Boston Celtics -3.5
7:35pm
View Pick
#539 New York Knicks 215
#540 Toronto Raptors -11
7:35pm
View Pick
#541 Miami Heat 213.5
#542 Oklahoma City Thunder -5.5
8:05pm
View Pick
#543 Golden State Warriors -2.5
#544 San Antonio Spurs 225.5
8:05pm
View Pick
#545 New Orleans Pelicans 230.5
#546 Dallas Mavericks -5
8:35pm
View Pick
#547 Chicago Bulls 229
#548 Phoenix Suns -2
10:05pm
View Pick
#549 Indiana Pacers 213.5
#550 Portland Trailblazers -4.5
10:35pm
View Pick
NCAAB
#661 Quinnipiac 143.5
#662 NJIT -5
7:00pm
View Pick
NHL
#71 Arizona 6.5
#72 Tampa Bay -275
7:38pm
View Pick
#73 Vancouver 6
#74 Chicago -250
8:38pm
View Pick
#75 Winnipeg -175
#76 Los Angeles 6
10:38pm
View Pick
#77 Vegas 6.5
#78 San Jose -170
10:38pm
View Pick
Tuesday, Mar 19
NBA
#557 Los Angeles Lakers 236.5
#558 Milwaukee Bucks -13
8:05pm
View Pick
#559 Brooklyn Nets 230.5
#560 Sacramento Kings -3.5
10:05pm
View Pick
NCAAB
#669 Fairleigh Dickinson -2.5
#670 Prairie View A&M 150
6:40pm
View Pick
#705 IUPUI 163.5
#706 Marshall -6.5
7:00pm
View Pick
#685 San Diego 148
#686 Memphis -5.5
8:00pm
View Pick
#689 Loyola - Chicago 134
#690 Creighton -10
9:00pm
View Pick
#693 Cal State Northridge 156
#694 Utah Valley -13
9:00pm
View Pick
#671 Belmont -3.5
#672 Temple 154.5
9:10pm
View Pick
NHL
#9 Washington -230
#10 New Jersey 6
7:38pm
View Pick
Wednesday, Mar 20
NCAAB
#715 North Dakota State 133
#716 NC Central -5.5
6:40pm
View Pick
#717 Toledo 140
#718 Xavier -6
7:00pm
View Pick
#719 Norfolk State
#720 Alabama
7:00pm
View Pick
#713 Arizona State -1
#714 St. John's 151
9:10pm
View Pick
Thursday, Mar 21
NCAAB
#773 Minnesota 134
#774 Louisville -5
12:15pm
View Pick
#767 Yale 160.5
#768 LSU -8
12:40pm
View Pick
#763 Vermont 133
#764 Florida State -10.5
2:00pm
View Pick
#761 Murray State 148
#762 Marquette -4.5
4:30pm
View Pick
#771 Abilene Christian
#772 Kentucky
7:10pm
View Pick
#769 Seton Hall 142.5
#770 Wofford -3
9:40pm
View Pick
Friday, Mar 22
NCAAB
#819 Northern Kentucky
#820 Texas Tech
1:30pm
View Pick
#827 Cal Irvine 118
#828 Kansas State -5
2:00pm
View Pick
#825 Oregon 116
#826 Wisconsin -1
4:30pm
View Pick
#815 Georgia State 142
#816 Houston -12
7:20pm
View Pick
#821 Liberty 135
#822 Mississippi St -7
7:27pm
View Pick
#813 Ohio State 140
#814 Iowa State -5.5
9:50pm
View Pick
#823 St. Louis 126
#824 Virginia Tech -10.5
9:57pm
View Pick