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UFC Fight Night 140: Neil Magny vs Santiago Ponzinibbio Betting Prediction

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

UFC will make it’s first trip to Argentina on Saturday with surging contender Santiago ‘Gente Boa’ Ponzinibbio and perennial top 10 welterweight Neil Magny headlining the card. Ponzinibbio is on a six-fight winning streak which includes three first-round knockouts with the most notable name on his resume being Gunnar Nelson. Meanwhile, Magny is on two-fight winning streak himself, picking up a decision win over the former interim champion Carlos Condit along the way.

X-Factors

The Argentinian will undoubtedly have the crowd on his side as he steps into the octagon on home soil for the first in over eight years. Although at first glance you would think that fighting in front of your home crowd is an advantage, it could also be of detriment to the fighter’s preparation. For example, there will be an increased amount of eyeballs and pressure on the fighter as well as friends and family asking for tickets in the lead up to the fight.

Ponzinibbio hasn’t fought since picking up a unanimous decision over Mike Perry in December 2017. He was scheduled to face Kamaru Usman in May but was forced to withdraw due to an injury.

Magny has had experience in upsetting the partisan crowd when he played spoiler and decisioned Kelvin Gastelum in Mexico. Therefore, it is unlikely that Magny will be affected too much by the pro-Ponzinibbio crowd come fight night.

Paths to Victory

Ponzonibbio is a striker through and through and will look to keep the fight upright. In Magny’s previous fights he has shown susceptibility to leg kicks and pressure. Therefore, ‘Gente Boa’ will be smart to not give too much space to Magny as well as mix in the leg kicks. Furthermore, due to Magny’s height, his defence isn’t the best and the Argentinian will be looking to find his chin from boxing range.

Magny is a very well rounded fighter is capable both on the ground and on the feet. However, in this fight, he should look to tie up with Ponzinibbio and drag him to the ground where he should have an advantage, especially if he is in top position. Additionally, Magny’s cardio has always been one of his strong points so dragging the fight into the later rounds should also benefit the American.

Conclusion

Overall, I believe that Ponzinibbio’s striking will prove too much for Magny and he should be able to find a knockout to the delight of the home crowd. However, Ponzinibbio should be wary of Magny’s clinch game and takedowns even though he won’t be lost on the ground if the fight does end up there.

Recommended Play: Santiago Ponzinibbio wins by T/KO @ -120 at 5dimes.

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Vladimir K

Vladimir has followed combat sports for the majority of his life and loves breaking down fights to help other people win money. He also runs his own website where he focuses on providing spotlight for up-and-coming fighters through interviews and prospect reports. You can see more of this work at his website MMAScout.com

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