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UFC on Fox 30: Joanna Jedrzejczyk vs. Tecia Torres Betting Prediction

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

In what could be one of the best striking contests in women’s MMA, former UFC champion, Joanna Jedrzejczyk, looks to work her way back to the top of the division with a win over the lightning fast kickboxer, Tecia Torres.

A Redemption Story?

As champion of the women’s strawweight division, Jedrzejczyk looked phenomenal. With a razor-sharp jab, fluid combinations and superb takedown defense, it looked as if the Polish Muay Thai stylist would retire unbeaten. However, after a terrible weight cut before UFC 217, Jedrzejczyk underperformed and was blasted in the first round by surging contender, Rose Namajunas.

 

The rematch with Namajunas was far more competitive, with both fighters finding their rhythm in different periods of the fight. Nevertheless, it was the masterful footwork, slips, and use of angles that ultimately won the fight for Namajunas - as well as a well-timed takedown in the dying seconds of the fight. Jedrzejczyk found success in rounds three and four, but at other times looked as if her timing was off.

 

Throughout her career, Jedrzejczyk has been able to stuff takedowns and outland her opponents on the feet. In this fight, she faces one of the few fighters in the division that could potentially give her a run for her money in a striking battle.

TThe "Tiny Tornado"

As one of the smallest fighters in the division, Tecia Torres doesn’t cut much weight to make the strawweight limit. While she normally faces a height and reach disadvantage, her agility and speed allow her to close the distance and land shots on larger opponents.

 

Her size is more of a disadvantage in grappling exchanges. Against the supremely aggressive Jessica Andrade, Torres fought excellently off the back foot and was able to land the more eye-catching strikes in the first round. Realizing that striking wasn’t working out too well, Andrade changed her approach in rounds two and three. Using her strength and wrestling edge, Andrade was able to take Torres down and control her on the mat to secure a decision victory.

 

Jedrzejczyk rarely uses her wrestling offensively. In fact, word on the street is that Torres has been training wrestling relentlessly and if anyone is to shoot, it’s likely to be her.

The Lines are Too Wide

On paper, this looks like a good fight for Jedrzejczyk to get back in the win column. However, after reviewing the footage, I think the fight could definitely be more competitive than the betting lines indicate. Jedrzejczyk has great distance control and probably picks Torres apart with her straight punches, but for me to play a -300 favorite I need to feel it will be a mismatch. Torres moves in and out of range excellently. I believe she’ll land her fair share of strikes as well.

 

While I’m tempted to take a shot on the +235 underdog, I’m going to recommend a more conservative play that you can put in a parlay.

 

Pick: Fight goes to decision -320

 

Check out my other predictions for UFC on Fox 30.

 

 

 

 

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