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NCAAF Week 10 Best Bets

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

Our hot streak goes on as we nailed five out of five last week to end the month on a high note. November is coming, and the things are hitting up in college football, so we'll see some great games in Week 10 including the SEC showdown between the Alabama Crimson Tide and the LSU Tigers. The conference matchups are always a joy to watch, and we'll see a few down below, so here are our best bets for the NCAAF Week 10.

 

Kansas State Wildcats at TCU Horned Frogs (-8.0)

The Big 12 showdown between the Kansas State Wildcats and the TCU Horned Frogs is first up on our betting list, and both these teams have struggled recently, losing four of their previous five games. The Wildcats are coming off a 51-14 defeat at Oklahoma while the Horned Frogs lost at Kansas 27-26 last week, suffering their third loss in a row.

Kansas State is scoring 22.1 points per contest (116th in the country), while the Wildcats' defense is allowing 28.2 points per game (73rd in the country) on 443.6 total yards per game (107th in the league). On the other side, the talented TCU's defense is allowing 25.0 points per game (55th in the country), while the Horned Frogs are tallying 28.1 points per game (77th in the country) on 408.0 yards per contest (67th). Both teams are struggling offensively, but the Frogs' attack still looks better than Kansas State's offense.

TCU is 0-5 ATS in the last five games overall and 1-6 ATS in the previous seven games at home, while Kansas State is 4-2 ATS in the last six games overall and the last six outings on the road. The under is 6-2-1 in Kansas State's last nine games overall, and it is 4-4-1 in Kansas State's previous nine games on the road. Likewise, the under is 4-3 in TCU's last seven games overall, and it is 8-3 in TCU's previous 11 games at home. The Frogs will be looking to bounce back on this one, so I'm backing them to cover along with the under on the total.

Week 10 Best Bet: Under 45.5 points (-110) & TCU Horned Frogs -8.0 (-110)

 

Navy Midshipman at Cincinnati Bearcats (-13.5)

The Cincinnati Bearcats (7-1; 5-3 ATS) barely escaped with a 26-20 overtime victory at Southern Methodist last weekend, so they will have to be wary against the Navy Midshipman (2-6; 2-6 ATS) this Saturday. Navy has lost four games in a row including three tough matchups at home against Notre Dame, Houston, and Temple, so the Midshipman will try to bounce back on this one and upset the odds.

Cincinnati's defense is still among the best in the country, as they are allowing only 15.8 points per game (9th) on 286.2 total yards per game (7th), while the Bearcats' are scoring 34.1 points per game (34th in the country) on 449.4 total yards per game (33rd). On the other side, Navy is scoring 28.2 points per game (75th in the nation), while they are allowing 35.5 points per contest (111th) on 440.8 total yards per game (105th in the country).

I expect to see a strong performance by Cincinnati's defense once more, while the Bearcats' attack shouldn't have any problems to put points on the scoreboard against Navy's defense. The Bearcats are 7-6 ATS in the last 13 games overall and just 3-8 ATS in the last 11 games at home, while they are 2-4 ATS in the previous six outings as double-digit underdogs, so this is an excellent chance to improve their stats. Navy is 1-5 ATS in the last six games on the road and 4-2-1 ATS in the last seven games as double-digit underdogs.

Week 10 Best Bet: Cincinnati Bearcats -13.5 (-110)

 

Nebraska Cornhuskers at Ohio State Buckeyes (-17.5)

The Ohio State Buckeyes (7-1; 3-5 ATS) are coming off a bye after a painful 49-20 defeat at Purdue that could cost them a playoff appearance. The Buckeyes were -500 money line favorites against Purdue, so they need to regroup and get back on the winning track as soon as possible, and there shouldn't be a better opportunity than the home matchup with Nebraska.

The Nebraska Cornhuskers (2-6; 3-5 ATS) have won two games in a row, both at home against Minnesota 53-28 and Bethune Cookman 45-9, as their defense finally did a solid job. The Cornhuskers once-vaunted Blackshirt defense has struggled mightily this season, allowing 33.4 points per game (101st in the country) on 438.0 total yards per game (103rd), so they could easily struggle against a Buckeyes attack that is scoring 43.0 points per contest (8th in the country) on 555.8 total yards per contest (3rd). The Buckeyes are averaging 51.4 points per home game this season, and they smashed Nebraska 62-3 at home two years ago.

Ohio State is 1-5 ATS in the last six games overall and 4-2 ATS in the last six games at home, while the Buckeyes are 4-0 ATS in all four meetings with Nebraska and 4-7 ATS in the last 11 games as double-digit favorites. On the other side, Nebraska is 3-1 ATS in the last four games, but only 4-8 ATS in their last 12 games overall. The Cornhuskers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games on the road, and they are 3-5 ATS in the previous eight outings as double-digit underdogs.

Week 10 Best Bet: Ohio State Buckeyes -17.5 (-110)

 

 

 

 

The Best of the Best

Houston Cougars at Southern Methodist Mustangs (+13.5)

I was so close to wagering against Southern Methodist (3-5; 4-4 ATS) last week when they upset the odds against Cincinnati, losing 26-20 after the overtime as 9-point underdogs. However, I won't miss a chance this Saturday when the Mustangs host the 17th-ranked Houston Cougars (7-1; 5-3 ATS) who won five games in a row including a 57-36 home victory over South Florida last weekend.

Houston is 2nd in the country in points per game (49.8), and only Alabama has scored more points per contest. Likewise, the Cougars are 1st in the in total yards per game (570.6), but their defense is not on the same level as their attack. The Cougars are allowing 30.0 points per game (89th in the country) on 480.2 total yards per game (120th in the nation). On the other side, the Mustangs are scoring 27.0 points per game (85th in the country), conceding 35.9 points per contest (114th in the country).

According to the stats and numbers, we should see a proper high-scoring affair, and after nailing 20 points against Cincinnati's sturdy defense, the Mustangs should surpass this mark against the Cougars. Over is 4-2 in Houston's last six games overall, and it is 4-1 in Houston's last five games on the road, while the under is 6-3 in Southern Methodist's previous nine games overall. The chalk has been set pretty high, but I will go with the over here along with Houston to cover. The Cougars are 3-5 ATS in their last eight games on the road, while the Mustangs are 4-4 ATS in their previous eight games at home.

Week 10 Best Bet: Over 71.0 points (-110) & Houston Cougars -13.5 (-110)

The Admiral

You want someone to show you how to make some money, then talk to me, I am your man. Folks, I have been doing this since....forever, so yeah, I know a thing or two on how to beat the spread and get your pockets loaded with the totals. Basketball, Soccer, Football, Hockey, you name it, and I will find the best pick for you.

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