NFL Best Bets for Sunday, September 13th
The first full NFL Sunday of the 2026 season gives bettors a 13-game board stretching from the 1:00 p.m. ET window through Sunday Night Football.
Our NFL best bets for Sunday, September 13 focus on three games where the current number still matches the handicap: Houston as a short home underdog, an NFC North Under and the Giants catching the key number of three against Dallas.
Here are the three best bets:
- Houston Texans +1.5 vs Buffalo Bills
- Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings Under 46.5
- New York Giants +3 vs Dallas Cowboys
For every matchup on the board, visit the Winners & Whiners NFL picks page.
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Houston Texans +1.5 vs Buffalo Bills
Best Bet: Houston +1.5
Buffalo has Josh Allen, but Houston has enough advantages everywhere else to make taking the home underdog our preferred position in one of Sunday's tightest games.
The current market has Buffalo favored by approximately 1.5 points, leaving Houston available at +1.5.
That number matters because the Texans do not need to outperform Allen for four quarters. They need to stay within one score and give C.J. Stroud a chance to decide the game late.
Houston's defense provides the strongest reason to believe that happens.
The Texans can create pressure without constantly committing extra defenders, which is critical against a quarterback like Allen. Sending too many rushers creates exactly the kind of broken-play opportunities that allow him to turn a third-and-long into a scramble or explosive completion.
Houston is better equipped to make Buffalo sustain drives.
The Texans also upgraded the offensive support around Stroud and added David Montgomery to a backfield that should allow Houston to play with more patience on early downs.
That gives the Texans a path to control possession rather than turning the afternoon into a pure quarterback shootout.
The final injury picture is also relatively favorable for Houston. Rookie defensive tackle Kayden McDonald has landed on injured reserve, but the Texans otherwise enter the opener with most of their core roster available.
Buffalo has had several players appear on the injury report during the week, adding another small reason to prefer the home team in what is already priced close to a coin flip.
Winners & Whiners projects a 23-20 Houston victory.
Read the full Bills vs Texans picks and prediction.
Play it at: Houston +1.5 or better. If the Texans flip to the favorite, the original value changes.
Packers vs Vikings Under 46.5
Best Bet: Under 46.5
The most interesting development in Green Bay-Minnesota has been the favorite flip.
Green Bay opened around -1.5, but Minnesota is now favored by approximately 1.5 points.
The total has moved the other direction, climbing from roughly 45.5 to 46.5.
That upward total movement gives us the number we want on the Under.
Minnesota begins the season with Kyler Murray taking over at quarterback in Kevin O'Connell's offense.
Murray's mobility creates explosive-play potential, but a season opener against a divisional opponent is not necessarily the spot for Minnesota to immediately turn the offense loose.
Green Bay has similar reasons to stay balanced.
Jordan Love gives the Packers an established quarterback advantage, but the offense enters Week 1 with changes in the receiving room and questions elsewhere in the lineup.
The Packers have also dealt with several injury issues entering the opener, while Minnesota finished the week in significantly better health.
That disparity may help explain why the spread moved toward the Vikings, but it does not automatically create a higher-scoring game.
Both defenses have ways to produce negative plays without constantly gambling with all-out pressure.
Minnesota's defense under Brian Flores can create confusion up front, while Green Bay can force Murray to prove he is already fully comfortable operating a new offense against a familiar divisional opponent.
At 46.5, both teams can reach the low 20s and the Under can still cash.
Winners & Whiners projects a 23-20 Green Bay victory, which would finish three-and-a-half points below the current total.
Read the full Packers vs Vikings picks and prediction.
Play it at: Under 46.5. The current number is materially better for an Under bettor than the opener around 45.5.
New York Giants +3 vs Dallas Cowboys
Best Bet: New York Giants +3
Sunday Night Football gives us the most important key-number decision on the card.
Dallas is favored by approximately three points at MetLife Stadium.
We want New York +3, not +2.5.
That half-point is significant because Winners & Whiners projects Dallas to win the game by only one point, 24-23.
Dallas has the more established offense.
Dak Prescott returns with CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens, giving the Cowboys two receivers capable of creating difficult coverage decisions for New York.
But the Giants have one obvious way to disrupt that advantage: their defensive front.
Brian Burns and Kayvon Thibodeaux give New York the ability to pressure Prescott without blitzing on every obvious passing down.
That matters even more with Dallas already dealing with offensive-line attrition entering the opener.
The Cowboys have also lost backup running back Malik Davis to a hip injury.
New York's biggest injury question is Malik Nabers.
Nabers is officially questionable with his knee injury, although he practiced fully throughout the week.
His availability is important because the Giants need an explosive receiving threat to prevent Dallas from compressing the field against second-year quarterback Jaxson Dart.
Even if Dallas remains the more likely outright winner, +3 gives New York enough protection in a divisional game that projects to remain competitive deep into the fourth quarter.
That is why the number is more important than simply choosing which team we believe will win.
Read the full Cowboys vs Giants picks and prediction.
Play it at: Giants +3. At +2.5, the bet becomes materially less attractive.
NFL Best Bets Card for September 13
Sunday's card gives us three different ways to attack the market:
- Houston +1.5: Back the home defense and take the points in a near pick'em.
- Packers-Vikings Under 46.5: Fade an elevated total in a divisional opener with offensive transition on both sides.
- Giants +3: Take the full key number in a Sunday Night Football matchup W&W projects Dallas to win by only one.
None of these wagers requires us to chase a bad number.
Houston remains an underdog, the Green Bay-Minnesota total remains at 46.5, and New York is still available at the full field goal.
That price discipline is especially important in Week 1, when markets can move rapidly as injury information and game-day betting volume arrive.
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Sunday NFL Betting Strategy
A large NFL Sunday board creates temptation to bet every marquee game.
The better approach is to isolate the numbers where the handicap and the current market still align.
Houston +1.5 works because the Texans remain underdogs.
The Packers-Vikings Under works because the total has risen to 46.5 rather than forcing us to bet into the lower opening number.
Giants +3 works because three is one of the most important numbers in NFL spread betting.
If those numbers disappear, the decision should change with them.
NFL Best Bets for Sunday
Our three best NFL bets for Sunday, September 13 are:
Houston Texans +1.5
Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings Under 46.5
New York Giants +3
Houston gives us a strong defense and home field in a game priced close to even. Green Bay-Minnesota gives us an inflated total in a divisional opener. New York gives us the key number of three in a game W&W expects Dallas to win by only a single point.
Those are the numbers worth attacking before Sunday's board begins moving more aggressively toward kickoff.
Odds, injury statuses and promotional terms can change. Always verify the latest lines and game-day information before wagering.
