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NFL Week 1 Strong Value Plays

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

All 32 teams will see action in week 1 when the NFL kicks off the regular season. There are 16 games on tap including the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles hosting the Atlanta Falcons, an AFC North battle between Pittsburgh and Cleveland, and an AFC West showdown between the Kansas City Chiefs and the San Diego Chargers. There are plenty of money making opportunities to be had this week so let’s take a look at some plays that will give you bankroll an early boost.

  • Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns

The Spread: Pittsburgh -5.5 (-110)

The Total: Over 46.5 (-110), Under 46.5 (-110)

The Pittsburgh Steelers start their season on the road against a Browns team that can’t do much worse than they did last year. This game opened up with Pittsburgh being 6-point favorites but the money appears to be on Cleveland at this point as the spread has dropped to Pittsburgh -5.5. It seems that bettors are aware that the Steelers didn’t exactly blow the doors off of Cleveland in either of their games last year. They won 21-18 in Week 1 and 28-24 in Week 17 but failed to cover the spread in either of those game.

Let’s focus on the total in this one as there is certainly value to be found. Last year, the Under was 10-6 in Pittsburgh’s games and it was 9-7 on Cleveland’s. Even more interesting is the fact that the Under went 7-1 in Pittsburgh’s road games and 6-2 in Cleveland’s home games. On top of this, the Under has prevailed in the last 5 straight meetings between these two teams in Cleveland and also in 8 of their last 11 head to head meetings overall.

The Play: Under 46.5 (-110)

  • Houston Texans at New England Patriots

The Spread: New England 6.5 (115)

The Total: Over 51 (-110), Under 51 (-110)

The last time these two teams met was last year in Week 3 and it was a thriller as both offenses took turn pummeling the other’s defense in what would result in a 36-33 New England victory. Brady torched Houston to the tune of 378 passing yards and 5 touchdowns while Deshaun Watson racked up 301 yards and a pair of touchdown passes. The Texans were leading going into the final minute of the game but another Brady miracle saved the day for the Patriots with 23 seconds left on the clock.

With Deshaun Watson back in Houston’s lineup, both of these teams have the ability to score a lot of points especially when one considers that both defenses are vulnerable. Houston has never beaten New England in Foxborough but the Over has prevailed in 5 of the 6 games that these two teams have played there. The Over is 6-1-1 in New England’s last 8 September games and 8 of the last 10 meetings between these two teams have gone Over.

The Play: Over 51 (-110)

  • Teaser of the Week

The New Orleans Saints will be going up against a Tampa Bay squad that allowed the most passing yards per game, the 10th-most rushing yards per game, and the 9th-most points per game. Meanwhile, the Bucs will probably be starting Ryan Fitzpatrick who will likely not have gelled with his receivers. Tampa Bay might have made a few improvements on the defensive side but it won’t be enough to stop the potent running game and Drew Brees’ air attack. New Orleans’ defense is much better now. Tampa Bay has just a single win in their last 7 visits to New Orleans.

Lambeau Field will be rocking with the return of Aaron Rodgers. Chicago has lost 13 of the last 15 meetings between these two teams and 8 of the last 10 in Green Bay. We’re just asking for a win here.

You probably know that the New York Jets have a pretty terrible offense but did you know they have a pretty bad defense too? Oh...you did? Well, Detroit’s defense isn’t much better but at least their offense is average. This Week 1 Monday nighter is a game that is hard to get excited about unless you happen to have the Lions to win straight up as the third leg of your teaser. The Jets have won just 4 road games in the last 2 seasons. Two of those wins were against the Browns so those ones almost shouldn’t count. They got a road win against the Bills in Week 2 of 2016 as well a win over Miami. Their ATS record in those 16 games is 5-10-1. Detroit might not have the most stellar home record but at least the games they lose are to contenders. The Lions have won 7 home games in a row when favored by 7 or more and 8 of their last 9. Once again, we’re just asking for a win.

The Play: New Orleans Saints -2.5 + Green Bay Packers 1 + Detroit Lions PK (7-point teaser)

The Admiral

You want someone to show you how to make some money, then talk to me, I am your man. Folks, I have been doing this since....forever, so yeah, I know a thing or two on how to beat the spread and get your pockets loaded with the totals. Basketball, Soccer, Football, Hockey, you name it, and I will find the best pick for you.

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