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We are entering the twelfth week of the NFL schedule after an exciting Week 11 which featured one heck of a shootout between the Rams and Chiefs as well as a New Orleans Saints blowout of the Eagles. Every division leader except for Washington in the NFC East has at least a pair of games separating them from the second-place team with the Rams enjoying a huge lead in the NFC West. Let’s find out what awaits us in Week 12 as we look at the best bets for the upcoming week and see if I can’t improve on my pedestrian 16-14 record.
Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys (-7)
It didn’t take long for the money to come pouring in on the Cowboys for their Thursday afternoon meeting with the Redskins. The opening line of Dallas -5.5 has moved two points at a lot of books but it can still be had at -7. The high spread makes sense considering that the Cowboys seem to have found some momentum and are playing at home on top of the fact that the Redskins are severely banged up and just lost their starting quarterback.
Both teams are rather similar in that their defenses are both playing well and neither offense has been lighting up the scoreboard. Dallas has been able to record wins at home this year but they haven’t been the most reliable home team to bet on ATS. They have been even less reliable as a home favorite and they are just 1-10 in their last eleven home games as a favorite of a touchdown or more. Of course, they haven’t been in that spot since 2016 so take that stat for what it’s worth. Meanwhile, Washington has won and covered in three of their four road games so far but they are in deep with so many deficiencies against a confident Cowboys team.
My Pick: Dallas Cowboys -7
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-12.5)
The New Orleans Saints are becoming what many expected them to be coming into the season. They are scoring at an incredible pace and their defense is tough to score on. The Falcons haven’t been all that bad defe4nsively over the past few weeks but their offense appears to have dried up. They have covered just twice in their last eight games and have struggled on the road. Dating back to last season, the Falcons are 3-9 ATS in road games and they are 1-3 ATS on the road this year.
The Saints have now won their last nine in a row and covered their last eight in a row including their last three games at home. The Saints are also 5-2 SU and ATS in their last seven home games versus Atlanta. The total currently sits at 59.5 at most books and considering that New Orleans has put up at least 45 points in their last three games and is averaging 37.8 points per game this season, a play on the over looks like a solid play assuming the Atlanta offense can rise to the occasion against a hated rival.
My Pick: Over 59.5
New England Patriots at New York Jets (-9.5)
As has been the case for several years, the 3-7 New York Jets look like they are just playing out the schedule. They have lost seven of their last nine both SU and ATS including their last four straight. Simply put, they stink! Then we have the 7-3 Patriots who are coming off a bye week after having their streak of six straight wins come to an end in a stunning loss to the Titans. New England is 2-3 ATS in their road games this year which isn’t terrible but they have lost a ton of money in recent years for those who have taken them a road faves of 9 points or more. Total bettors will be interested to know that the under has prevailed in the last 10 straight games in which the Patriots have been favored by nine or more points.
For their part, a relatively small sample size shows that the Jets are a very solid ATS bet as home dogs of 9 or points. The under is also a predominant feature in those games. It is also interesting to note that the Jets have covered their last five games when hosting the Pats and have held Brady and company to an average of just 22 points in those games. In what is sure to be a staple of many teasers this week, I’ll take the points. This will be New York’s Super Bowl.
My Pick: New York Jets +9.5
Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills (+3)
It was almost painful to watch how Jacksonville lost their swagger in their collapse versus the Steelers last week. As it is, they are 3-7 and look like they are destined to miss the playoffs. However, they aren’t done yet and a win this week at least keeps them in the Wildcard hunt. Strangely enough, the Bills are also 3-7 but they haven’t had the same expectations put on them. As with Jacksonville, a win at least keeps the Bill in the Wildcard hunt.
Records and quarterbacks aside, the Jaguars offense is superior to that of the Bills although that isn’t saying much. The Jags might have been held to 20 points or less in five of their last six games but the Bills have been held to 10 or less in three of their last four. There is also a pretty big difference on the defensive side of the ball. Leonard Fournette should be able to have a big game as Jacksonville makes what could be their last stand.
My Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars -