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NFL Week 4 Best Bets

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Our Top 5 NFL Week 4 Best Bets

We were pretty successful with our betting picks in Week 3, nailing four out of five, so we'll try to stay on the right path as Week 4 starts with a matchup between the Los Angeles Rams and Minnesota Vikings on Thursday night. The bettors will see 13 games on Sunday, September 30th, while the closing game between the Denver Broncos and the Kansas City Chiefs is set for a Monday Night Football.

The upcoming NFL Week looks quite tricky when it comes to finding safe bets, especially after witnessing how the Buffalo Bills smashed the Minnesota Vikings on the road last weekend. The Bills won the game 27-6 as a 17-point underdog, and this weekend, they will visit the Green Bay Packers as 10-point minnows. The Pittsburgh Steelers and the Baltimore Ravens both satisfied the odds and our expectations, so their H2H duel on Sunday night certainly demands the bettors' attention.

Jimmy G is out for the season, leaving C.J. Beathard under center to lead the San Francisco 49ers against the Los Angeles Chargers, and everyone waits to see how it all work. The New England Patriots are on a 1-2 start for the first time since the 2012 season after losing to the Detroit Lions last Sunday, so we are pretty excited about the Patriots' upcoming matchup against the Miami Dolphins who are still unbeaten in this campaign.

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.0)

The Baltimore Ravens (2-1; 2-1-0 ATS) are enjoying a nice start of the season, and they easily outplayed the Denver Broncos 27-14 on home turf last weekend. The Ravens' defense put on another impressive performance, completely shooting down the Broncos' attack in the second half when they allowed zero points to the visitors.

Baltimore is allowing just 273.0 total yards per game which ranks them first in the NFL. The Ravens are second-best in the league against the passing game (169.3 yards per contest), and if they continue with the hard work, Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers receiving corps could have a tough night. On the other hand, the Ravens are allowing 103.7 rushing yards per game which is the 13th best mark in the league, but the Steelers' ground game shouldn't cause a lot of problems (23rd-rank with 90.0 yards per game).

The Steelers' passing game is the second-best with 363.3 yards per game, so this should be a battle between Big Ben and the Ravens' defense. Roethlisberger won three games straight against Baltimore, including the last season's 39-38 home victory when he completed 44 of his 66 passes for 506 yards, two TDs, and zero interceptions. On the other side, Joe Flacco threw for 269 yards, two TD's, and an interception.

This season, Big Ben had some ups and downs, throwing for 1140 yards, seven touchdowns, and four interceptions. Flacco threw for 889 yards, six touchdowns, and a couple of interceptions, both against the Bengals in Week 2. The Steelers' defense hasn't impressed at all so far, allowing 410.3 yards per game which is the 4th-worst record in the league, so the Ravens should get some scores on this one.

The Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1-1; 1-2-0 ATS) finished all their three games in the over, and the matchup with the Ravens could be their first under of the season. On the other hand, betting trends are suggesting the opposite, as ten of Baltimore's previous 15 games ended up over, and six out of Ravens' last eight road games finished over as well. The chalk is a tricky one at 50.5, but I think both teams will struggle at the defensive end, so I'm backing the Over.

Week 4 Best Bet: Over 50.5 points (-110)

 

San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Chargers (-10.5)

The season is over for Jimmy Garoppolo due to a torn ACL, and the 49ers' fans look desperate as the last season's rookie C.J. Beathard will start under center. Beathard played in seven games last year, five times as a starter, throwing for four touchdowns and six interceptions to record just one win in those five outings. Hereof, San Francisco (1-2; 0-3-0 ATS) is an 11-point underdog against the Chargers, and many think this road challenge will be too much for the 49ers.

The Los Angeles Chargers (1-2; 1-2-0 ATS) lost the battle for LA last weekend, also failing to cover the spread, but their offensive game looks well at the start of the season. The Chargers rank eighth in total scoring (27.3 points per game) and fifth in total yards (415.3 per game), while Philip Rivers threw for 906 yards, eight touchdowns, and just one interception, completing 69.4% of his passes.

Without Jimmy G, the 49ers will have to rely more on their ground game which is already the second best in the league with 152.7 yards per game. The Chargers are allowing 120.3 rushing yards per game (24th-best in the league), so they could easily struggle against the ground attack. More rushing means less time on the clock, and that is why I'm backing the under here, although the Chargers finished all their three games in the over, while the 49ers had just one in the under. However, four of 49ers' last six games on the road were ended in the under, and the same ratio is on the Chargers' last six home games.

Likewise, the Chargers should take advantage of Garoppolo's absence and grab a victory here. They are 10-5-0 ATS in the last 15 games overall, and 5-1-0 ATS when playing against the 49ers. The visitors couldn't cover the spread in the first three weeks, so I'm backing them to continue this trend.

Week 4 Best Bet: Under 46.5 points (-110) & Los Angeles Chargers (-10.5)

 

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-7.0)

Rarely would one expect to see the New England Patriots (1-2; 1-2-0 ATS) with two losses after Week 3, but the Dolphins' unbeaten streak is probably an even bigger surprise. Miami (3-0; 3-0 ATS) has beaten the Jets and the Raiders with an 8-point margin, and the Titans with a 7-point margin, covering the spread on all three occasions, but the Dolphins will have a challenging task to upset the odds at Foxborough.

The Miami Dolphins rely on a strong defense, as they are allowing 17.3 points per game to their rivals (sixth in the league) while collecting seven interceptions which is tied for first with the Seahawks. However, Miami allowed 288.3 passing yards per game, which is the fourth-worst record in the NFL, and this could be a problem against Tom Brady, in spite of his horrid time last weekend at Detroit.

Brady threw for only 133 yards, his fewest since the game against the Bills almost four years ago while completing 14 of 26 passes for a TD and an interception. The Patriots have converted just 10 of their 35 3rd downs so far, and a much better job is needed if they want to defeat the Dolphins. Miami is 1-5-0 ATS in the last six games on the road and 2-5-0 ATS in the previous seven meetings with the Patriots. Likewise, the Dolphins are 0-5-0 ATS in the last five games at Foxborough, while the Patriots are 7-2-0 ATS in their last nine games on home soil. I expect to see these trends to continue, and an improvement in Tom Brady's game, so I'm backing the Patriots to cover the spread here and inflict the first defeat to the Miami Dolphins.

Week 4 Best Bet: New England Patriots (-7.0)

 

Buffalo Bills at Green Bay Packers (-10.0)

After a massive upset against the Vikings, the Buffalo Bills (1-2; 1-2-0 ATS) are facing another tough challenge this weekend, visiting the Green Bay Packers (1-1-1; 1-2-0 ATS) at Lambeau Field. The Bills dominated the Vikings for all four quarters, but the bookies don't believe they can do it again this weekend against the Packers.

Green Bay is having some serious problems at the defensive end, allowing 124.3 rushing yards per game (7th-worst in the league) and 262.3 passing yards per game (11th-worst). The Packers will have to solve this issues as soon as possible, or they could easily struggle against the Bills, particularly on the ground. The Bills' rushing game is the 19th-best in the NFL with 98.3 yards per contest, as running back Chris Ivory racked up 20 totes for 56 yards against the Vikes, also adding three receptions for 70 yards. Starting RB LeSean McCoy should suit up after missing the previous week due to an injury, so the Bills certainly have a plan on how to damage the Packers' defense.

On the other side, Aaron Rodgers will be ready for the clash, although he missed all practice sessions this week. Rodgers has thrown for 832 yards so far, recording six touchdowns and zero interceptions while completing 77 of his 116 passes. The Bills' defense is allowing 256.7 passing yards per game which ranked them 19th in the league, while they are fifth with just 80.0 rushing yards allowed per contest.

The Buffalo Bills are 4-2-0 ATS in their last six games on the road and 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine meetings with the Packers. Green Bay is 1-5-0 ATS in the last six games overall, and 2-5-0 ATS in the previous seven outings at home. The trends are suggesting the Bills here, but I don't think they will replicate the performance from their previous game so that I will go against the streak.

Week 4 Best Bet: Green Bay Packers (-10.0)

 

 

Our Best Play of the Week

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (-1.0)

The one-point spread set by the bookies tells a lot about this clash, as the matchup between the Indianapolis Colts (1-2; 2-1-0 ATS) and the Houston Texans (0-3; 0-3-0 ATS) could be one of the trickier plays in Week 4. Both teams are desperate to grab a victory here, especially the Texans who have lost all three games by seven points or fewer, still failing to cover the spread on all three occasions.

While covering the spread or hitting the moneyline may be a challenge, the value is found in the total, as the number is set at 47.0 points. Both teams have finished two of their three games under thus far, and their divisional duel looks like another one.

The Houston Texans averaged 19.7 points per game which rank them 25th in the league, while the Colts are ranked 21st with 20.0 points per contest. With 396.3 total yards per game, the Houston Texans are ranked eighth, but they managed to score in just four out of their 11 visits to the red zone while completing 12 out of their 34 3rd downs. On the other side, the Indianapolis Colts are the fifth-worst team in the NFL in total yards per game (290.0), while their ground game is the fourth-worst in the league with just 82.3 yards per contest.

Defensively, the Houston Texans are allowing 24.7 points, and 350.3 total yards per game (17th-best), while the Indianapolis Colts are permitting 21.0 points and 347.7 total yards per contest. The total has gone under in four out of the Texans’ previous five games overall, and the same ratio is on their previous five road games. Likewise, the under is 5-0-0 in the last five H2H duels at Lucas Oil Stadium. Ten out of the Colts’ previous 11 games have gone under, and five out of their last six games at home were finished below the total. Hereof, I’ll go with these trends to see another low-scoring affair.

Week 4 Best Bet: Under 47.0 points (-110)

The Admiral

You want someone to show you how to make some money, then talk to me, I am your man. Folks, I have been doing this since....forever, so yeah, I know a thing or two on how to beat the spread and get your pockets loaded with the totals. Basketball, Soccer, Football, Hockey, you name it, and I will find the best pick for you.

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