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There are a lot of key matchups in the NFL in Week 5, but two contests standout above the others as the Minnesota Vikings and Philadelphia Eagles square off in a rematch of last year’s NFC Championship game. Also, the 3-1 Jacksonville Jaguars take on the 4-0 Kansas City Chiefs.
However, those are not the only exciting games this weekend, especially for those who are looking for a smart bet this weekend. If you’re looking to finish the weekend on a high note, here are five favorite bets of Week 5.
New York Giants vs. Carolina Panthers (-6.5)
There is a lot of skepticism about Carolina at home because they are just 18-11-1 against the spread when facing teams from the NFC. However, that number is skewed as Carolina is 4-7-1 against NFC South division opponents and they are 14-4-1 against the rest of the NFC in their own home stadium.
You also have to like the fact that Carolina is 3-0 against the spread and straight up when coming off a bye week since 2015. Those games have included them scoring better than 30 points per contest on average.
The Giants have struggled stopping the run this season, allowing better than 4.7 yards per carry, one of only seven teams in the National Football League to allow that many. Since Ron Rivera became the head coach in Carolina, the Panthers are 19-10 against the spread when facing a team allowing better than 4.5 yards per rush and they have scored better than 30 points per game in those 29 contests.
As a reference, the Giants have not scored 30 points in a single game since 2015, significantly reducing their odds of taking down the Panthers.
Week 5 Best Bet: Carolina -6.5 (-110)
Los Angeles Rams (-7) vs. Seattle Seahawks
There are those who had plenty of doubts about Seattle entering the season, feeling their chances of being a competitor for a Super Bowl title were long past. They lost their first two games on the road, but have battled back to even their record, including an impressive home victory over the Dallas Cowboys two weeks ago in front of the howling 12th Man.
This week, Seattle takes on the Los Angeles Rams at home. The Rams won a great battle over the Minnesota Vikings a week ago Thursday, 38-31, in their third straight game at home. It was the first time this season that they did not cover the spread.
It makes sense that Los Angeles would be favored in this game. They are arguably the best team in the NFL to this point, but giving seven points in Seattle is a lot. In his last 45 games at home, quarterback Russell Wilson is 25-20 against the spread and in the previous 18 at home for head coach Pete Carroll the 'Hawks 13-5 against the number.
Los Angeles has not left the state of California this season, and Seattle is not a vast distance to travel, but the Seahawks are no cakewalk. The Rams will likely win, but we doubt they cover the spread.
Week 5 Best Bets: Seattle +7 (-105)
Miami Dolphins vs. Cincinnati Bengals (-6)
The Miami Dolphins may be 3-1, but they have not looked overly impressive. They beat a Tennessee Titans team who had lost their quarterback halfway through the contest and then defeated two teams that stand a combined 2-6. They then squared off against the New England Patriots, who utterly destroyed them, 38-7.
Cincinnati is also 3-1, and they have earned that record by averaging better than 31 points per game and 375 yards in offense. They have also bested the likes of the Baltimore Ravens and the Atlanta Falcons, with their only loss coming in a 10-point defeat in Carolina. This team may be the actual Super Bowl contender, while Miami and their offense got exposed last week.
As long as Andy Dalton avoids giving up the ball, Cincinnati’s going to roll in this game.
Week 5 Best Bets: Cincinnati -6 (-106)
Minnesota Vikings vs. Philadelphia Eagles O/U 46
This rematch of the NFC Championship game should be a good contest, but this probably won't be a defensive slugfest. Minnesota is coming off a game where they allowed 38 points to the Los Angeles Rams, and averages 27.5 points allowed per contest, 22nd best. Philadelphia is allowing 20.2 points per contest, tied for ninth in the league.
Those numbers would seem to make it logical that the over/under of 46.0 would be about accurate, and we agree. Minnesota looks like they are starting to put their offense together behind new quarterback Kirk Cousins, and Carson Wentz looked very good last weekend, throwing for nearly 350 yards and two touchdowns. However, these two teams are still among the bottom third in the league in points scored per contest, as Minnesota is averaging 22.5 and Philadelphia 20.5.
In the last five meetings between these two teams in Philadelphia, the total went under in four of those contests. That trend looks to continue here as well.
Week 5 Best Bets: Under 46.0 (-107)