Sabalenka U.S Open Three-Peat at 39% | Polymarket Live Odds

Aryna Sabalenka is two wins away from a piece of U.S. Open history.

The two-time defending champion survived her toughest match of the tournament Tuesday, beating Wimbledon champion Linda Noskova in three sets to reach another semifinal at Flushing Meadows.

Prediction-market traders responded by strengthening Sabalenka's position at the top of the women's championship market.

Polymarket now gives Sabalenka approximately a 39% chance to win the 2026 U.S. Open, making her the clear favorite ahead of Thursday's semifinals.

The full women's championship market has generated more than $10 million in trading volume.

View the live Sabalenka U.S. Open championship market on Polymarket.

Eligible new users can currently deposit $10 and receive a $20 trading bonus after a qualifying trade with Polymarket promo code PICKS2026. Eligibility, geographic restrictions and promotional terms apply.

Sabalenka U.S. Open Chances Reach 39%

Sabalenka enters the semifinals with more separation from the field than she had earlier in the tournament.

The current Polymarket championship board has Sabalenka around 39%, followed by Coco Gauff near 21%, Elena Rybakina around 19% and Jessica Pegula near 13%.

Those probabilities can continue moving as the remaining quarterfinal matches are completed and traders react to the semifinal draw.

Sabalenka's position is already significant.

She is the only player currently approaching a 40% implied chance of winning the title, but the market still gives the rest of the field a combined probability above 60%.

She is the favorite.

She is not close to a certainty.

That distinction matters after a quarterfinal that nearly ended her title defense.

Sabalenka Survives Linda Noskova in Quarterfinal

Noskova pushed Sabalenka harder than anyone else has during this U.S. Open run.

Sabalenka won the opening set in a tiebreak, dropped the second and then fell behind by a break in the deciding set.

She recovered and eventually forced another tiebreak before closing out a 7-6, 3-6, 7-6 victory.

The match ended with Sabalenka hitting a second-serve ace on match point.

It was the first set Sabalenka had lost during the tournament.

More importantly, she survived it.

Championship markets often move dramatically late in Grand Slam tournaments because each victory removes another path to elimination.

Sabalenka is now through five rounds and needs only two more wins.

Jessica Pegula Is Next in the Semifinals

Sabalenka will face Jessica Pegula in the semifinals.

Pegula reached the final four by coming from behind to beat Emma Navarro 3-6, 6-4, 6-3.

It is Pegula's third consecutive U.S. Open semifinal.

The matchup also brings back memories of the 2024 U.S. Open final, when Sabalenka defeated Pegula to win the first of her back-to-back New York titles.

Thursday's women's semifinal session begins at 7 p.m. ET at Arthur Ashe Stadium.

The exact match order can affect the individual start time, so bettors should check the final order of play before the session begins.

Pegula's championship probability sits around 13% on the current Polymarket board.

That makes her a significant underdog to Sabalenka in the overall title race, but she has already demonstrated that she belongs deep in this tournament.

Sabalenka Is Chasing a U.S. Open Three-Peat

A Sabalenka championship would carry more historical weight than a normal Grand Slam victory.

She won the U.S. Open in 2024.

She defended the title in 2025.

Winning again in 2026 would make Sabalenka the first woman since Serena Williams to win three consecutive U.S. Open singles championships.

Williams completed her three-peat from 2012 through 2014.

That is the history Sabalenka is chasing this week.

The challenge is not simply winning another major.

It is maintaining championship form at the same tournament for three straight seasons while dealing with an increasingly difficult draw and the pressure that comes with being the player everyone is trying to beat.

Sabalenka has openly acknowledged that pressure.

She has also made clear that completing the three-peat matters more to her than protecting the No. 1 ranking.

Why Sabalenka's Polymarket Price Has Climbed

Sabalenka entered the tournament as the women's favorite, but her probability has changed considerably throughout the event.

Early in the tournament, Polymarket placed her in the low-20% range.

Each victory has reduced the number of remaining competitors.

Other contenders have also been eliminated, while injuries, form and individual matchups have reshaped the bracket.

The quarterfinal victory over Noskova was particularly important because Sabalenka survived a match in which she was genuinely threatened.

The result removed the reigning Wimbledon champion from the draw and moved Sabalenka within one victory of another U.S. Open final.

That combination has pushed the market toward 39%.

For a look at how the market looked earlier in the tournament, see our 2026 U.S. Open title odds after the draw.

At that stage, Sabalenka was trading closer to 23%.

The move from roughly 23% to 39% shows how dramatically an outright championship market can change once the field reaches the final rounds.

Coco Gauff and Elena Rybakina Remain Major Threats

Sabalenka may lead the market, but the other side of the bracket remains important.

Coco Gauff is still one of the leading championship contenders at approximately 21%.

Elena Rybakina is close behind around 19%.

Both remain capable of emerging from the opposite half and meeting Sabalenka or Pegula in Saturday's championship match.

That is one reason Sabalenka remains below 50%.

She still needs to defeat Pegula and then beat another elite player in the final.

Polymarket prices are continuously traded rather than fixed like traditional preseason sportsbook odds.

A semifinal victory could therefore move Sabalenka's probability substantially before the championship match is played.

A loss would immediately resolve her championship contract to No.

How the Sabalenka Polymarket Contract Works

The Sabalenka market is part of Polymarket's 2026 women's U.S. Open winner market.

A Yes contract on Sabalenka represents the position that she will officially win the women's singles championship.

A price near 39 cents corresponds with an implied probability near 39%.

If Sabalenka wins the tournament, winning Yes contracts settle at $1.

If she is eliminated, the Yes side resolves at $0.

Prices can move before resolution.

Traders can buy or sell positions as expectations change throughout the tournament.

The current market includes separate outcomes for the remaining championship contenders and has generated more than $10 million in overall trading volume.

Polymarket Promo Code PICKS2026

Eligible new users can use Polymarket promo code PICKS2026 when creating an account where available.

The current Picks & Parlays promotion provides a $20 trading bonus after an eligible $10 deposit and qualifying trade.

Eligibility, geographic restrictions and promotional terms apply.

Prediction-market contracts can lose their full purchase value.

Users should review the exact market-resolution rules and current promotional terms before trading.

Can Sabalenka Win a Third Straight U.S. Open?

The market now gives Sabalenka the clearest championship position of any woman left in the tournament.

She is through to the semifinals.

She has won two consecutive U.S. Open titles.

And she is only two victories away from becoming the first woman since Serena Williams to complete a three-peat in New York.

Polymarket currently prices that possibility around 39%.

Thursday's semifinal against Pegula is the next obstacle.

If Sabalenka wins again, the three-peat will be one match away.