Who Will Win the 2026 U.S. Open? | Kalshi Live Odds

Carlos Alcaraz and Aryna Sabalenka enter U.S. Open Fan Week as the players most likely to win the men's and women's singles titles according to the latest Kalshi prediction markets.

Alcaraz currently has a 32% chance to defend his men's championship, while Sabalenka leads the women's market at 22%.

The men's race changed dramatically when world No. 1 Jannik Sinner withdrew from the tournament on Aug. 21 because of a persistent right knee injury.

Sinner's absence removes the reigning Wimbledon champion and last year's U.S. Open finalist from a field that already had questions near the top.

Alcaraz is returning from a four-month wrist injury.

Alexander Zverev enters New York after an early Cincinnati exit.

Novak Djokovic is trying to win a record 25th Grand Slam singles championship at age 39.

The women's race is even more open. Sabalenka leads, but Iga Swiatek and Coco Gauff are both within seven percentage points of the favorite.

The result is two very different U.S. Open futures markets heading into the final week before the singles main draw begins.

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2026 U.S. Open Men's Winner Chances on Kalshi

Kalshi traders have made Alcaraz the clear men's favorite following Sinner's withdrawal.

More than $6.7 million has been traded across the Kalshi U.S. Open men's singles winner market.

No player is close to an even-money probability.

That matters.

Alcaraz is clearly the man to beat according to traders, but a 32% probability still leaves roughly two chances in three that somebody else wins the championship.

Why Carlos Alcaraz Is the U.S. Open Favorite

Alcaraz has the strongest combination of championship history and upside remaining in the field.

He defeated Sinner in last year's U.S. Open final and enters the 2026 tournament as the defending champion.

He also won the Australian Open earlier this season, completing the career Grand Slam at just 22 years old.

The question is not whether Alcaraz has the game to win in New York.

It is whether he can immediately reproduce his best tennis after four months away from competition.

A right wrist injury has kept him out since April. He missed the French Open, Wimbledon and the major North American hard-court events leading into New York.

That creates an unusual market.

The defending champion is simultaneously the favorite and one of the biggest injury unknowns in the draw.

Kalshi had Alcaraz around 34% immediately after Sinner withdrew. He has since eased to approximately 32%.

Traders therefore appear comfortable keeping him clearly ahead of the field without treating his return as automatic.

Alcaraz will also have an opportunity to test himself during Fan Week after receiving a mixed-doubles wild card alongside Serena Williams.

That could give traders their first meaningful look at his movement, timing and wrist before singles play begins Aug. 30.

For additional tournament markets and long-range plays, visit the Winners & Whiners tennis futures picks page.

Sinner's Withdrawal Opens the Door for Alexander Zverev

Zverev is now the clear second choice at 20%.

The German already knows how close he can come to winning this tournament.

He reached the 2020 U.S. Open final before losing to Dominic Thiem after taking a two-set lead.

His major résumé changed this season when he finally broke through at Roland Garros.

Sinner's withdrawal removes one of the few players who had separated himself consistently from the rest of the men's tour.

That is particularly important because Alcaraz enters with his own health and match-fitness questions.

Zverev's current price effectively makes him the primary alternative if Alcaraz is not immediately back at championship level.

His own form is not perfect.

Tommy Paul eliminated Zverev in Cincinnati after rallying from a set down, so he arrives in New York without the momentum he would have wanted.

Still, the draw looks materially different without Sinner.

A 20% probability reflects that opportunity.

Can Novak Djokovic Win Grand Slam No. 25?

Djokovic is third among the displayed men's leaders at 10%.

At most tournaments, a 10% probability would make a player a secondary contender.

With Djokovic, the number carries more weight.

He has won the U.S. Open four times and owns 24 Grand Slam singles titles.

One more would move him alone atop the all-time major singles list.

Sinner's withdrawal also eliminates the world No. 1 from Djokovic's potential path, while Alcaraz has not played a competitive singles tournament since April.

The concern is age.

Djokovic is now 39, and winning seven best-of-five matches over two weeks requires a physical workload unlike anything else on the calendar.

Kalshi traders are therefore giving him a legitimate chance without pricing him anywhere near Alcaraz or Zverev.

The current men's market is effectively asking whether Alcaraz can return at full strength, whether Zverev can capitalize if he cannot, or whether Djokovic has another historic Grand Slam run left.

2026 U.S. Open Women's Winner Chances on Kalshi

The women's board is tighter.

Approximately $780,000 has been traded across the Kalshi U.S. Open women's singles winner market.

Sabalenka holds the lead, but the gap between first and third is only seven percentage points.

That is a much different setup than the men's field.

There is a clear favorite, but there is no dominant favorite.

Aryna Sabalenka Leads the Women's U.S. Open Market

Sabalenka enters Fan Week at 22%.

She is also the current world No. 1.

The market has softened slightly around her, however, and her final tune-up did not go according to plan.

Sara Bejlek upset Sabalenka in Cincinnati, giving the top-ranked player another reason to use Fan Week to reset before the singles tournament.

Sabalenka will also be active in New York before the main draw begins, partnering Djokovic in the U.S. Open mixed doubles event.

Her power game has always translated well to hard courts, but the current probability shows how competitive the women's tournament has become.

At 22%, traders make her the favorite while still assigning nearly an 80% combined chance to the rest of the field.

Iga Swiatek Remains Close at 16%

Swiatek sits second at 16%.

That puts her only six points behind Sabalenka.

Swiatek has already won the U.S. Open once, taking the 2022 championship, and she remains one of the most accomplished players in the field.

She will also participate in the mixed doubles event alongside Casper Ruud during Fan Week.

Her current price makes her part of the top tier rather than a distant second choice.

The Sabalenka-Swiatek gap is much smaller than the Alcaraz-Zverev gap on the men's side.

Coco Gauff Has Climbed to 15%

Gauff is now only one percentage point behind Swiatek.

Kalshi's current board shows her at 15%, up two points.

That makes Gauff the strongest displayed mover among the top three women.

She also owns a U.S. Open championship, having won the tournament in 2023.

For American tennis fans, that creates a compelling setup.

Gauff enters New York within striking distance of the market lead rather than as a longshot chasing Sabalenka and Swiatek.

Another strong week of practice or favorable draw development could tighten the top of the women's board even further.

For daily match markets once the tournament begins, Winners & Whiners also tracks current ATP and WTA tennis odds throughout the season.

How Jannik Sinner's Withdrawal Changes the U.S. Open

Sinner's absence is the defining development in the men's championship market.

He withdrew after determining that his injured right knee still needed additional recovery time.

The world No. 1 had gone 44-3 this season and won Wimbledon before the injury interrupted his summer.

He also had recent success in New York, winning the 2024 U.S. Open before losing to Alcaraz in the 2025 final.

Removing that résumé from the draw changes every contender's route.

Alcaraz no longer has his biggest recent rival waiting on the other side of the bracket.

Zverev's path to a second major becomes more realistic.

Djokovic has one fewer elite obstacle between himself and No. 25.

American contenders and other players outside the top three also gain opportunity because one of the tournament's two dominant recent men's players will not participate.

The withdrawal does not make Alcaraz unbeatable.

It makes the field considerably more open behind him.

When Does the 2026 U.S. Open Main Draw Begin?

Monday, Aug. 24 is still part of U.S. Open Fan Week.

Men's and women's qualifying is underway, along with mixed doubles qualifying and player practices around the Billie Jean King National Tennis Center.

Singles main-draw play begins Sunday, Aug. 30.

That gives markets several more days to react to practices, qualifying results, mixed doubles action, injury updates and the eventual singles draw.

Those developments can matter significantly for futures prices.

A difficult quarter can push a contender lower.

A favorable path can attract money.

Most importantly for Alcaraz, every public appearance this week gives traders additional information about how his wrist responds after four months away.

Who Will Win the 2026 U.S. Open?

Kalshi traders currently give the clearest answers to Alcaraz and Sabalenka.

Alcaraz leads the men's field at 32%.

Sabalenka leads the women's field at 22%.

Neither market is close to settled.

Alcaraz must prove he can return from a four-month injury layoff and immediately survive seven best-of-five matches.

Zverev sits close enough to capitalize if the defending champion struggles.

Djokovic remains a serious threat as he pursues history.

On the women's side, Sabalenka has only a modest advantage over Swiatek and Gauff.

The biggest certainty entering Fan Week is that Sinner's withdrawal has made the men's U.S. Open considerably less predictable.

For now, Alcaraz and Sabalenka are the favorites.

The live probabilities show that New York remains wide open.