Yankees 55%, Padres 56% to Win Game 2 | Kalshi Promo Code
Two MLB Wild Card favorites have a chance to end their first-round series Wednesday night.
Kalshi currently gives the New York Yankees approximately a 55% chance to beat the Boston Red Sox in the 8 p.m. ET game, while the San Diego Padres sit around 56% to beat the Chicago Cubs in the 10 p.m. ET nightcap.
Both teams lead their best-of-three series 1-0.
The Yankees routed Boston 9-0 in Tuesday's opener at Yankee Stadium.
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San Diego also enters Game 2 with a series lead after shutting out Chicago in its opener at Petco Park.
That makes both night games potential elimination games.
Eligible new users can enter Kalshi promo code WINNERS when registering.
Yankees Have 55% Chance to Eliminate Red Sox
The first night game begins at 8 p.m. ET at Yankee Stadium.
Kalshi currently prices the Game 2 winner market at approximately:
- New York Yankees: 55%
- Boston Red Sox: 45%
New York has moved roughly two percentage points higher in the market.
Boston has moved two points lower.
The Yankees only need one more victory to advance to the American League Division Series.
Boston needs to win tonight to force a deciding Game 3 on Thursday.
Yankees Dominated Game 1
New York could hardly have opened the postseason more convincingly.
The Yankees beat Boston 9-0 in Game 1.
Cam Schlittler struck out 10 while throwing 6 1/3 scoreless innings.
Ben Rice powered the offense with two home runs and six RBIs, including a grand slam that blew the game open in the eighth inning.
Boston managed only two hits against Schlittler.
That performance gives New York both the series lead and the chance to finish the rivalry matchup without playing a third game.
Sonny Gray Faces Max Fried in Game 2
Wednesday's pitching matchup changes significantly from Game 1.
Boston turns to veteran right-hander Sonny Gray.
Gray finished the regular season 18-5 with a 2.72 ERA and was one of Boston's most dependable starters throughout the year.
The Yankees counter with left-hander Max Fried, who enters Game 2 after posting a 2.80 ERA.
Boston deliberately held Gray for Game 2, while New York elected to follow Game 1 starter Schlittler with Fried.
That creates a much more experienced pitching matchup than Tuesday's opener.
Yankees Run-Line Market Is More Cautious
The Game 2 winner market favors New York, but traders are less aggressive on the Yankees winning comfortably.
Kalshi currently gives New York approximately a 37% chance to win by more than 1.5 runs.
That is a major difference from Game 1, when the Yankees eventually won by nine.
The market therefore favors New York to advance while still pricing a significantly tighter game than Tuesday's final score.
Over 6.5 Runs Is Slightly Favored
The total market is also close.
Kalshi currently gives Over 6.5 runs approximately a 54% probability.
That puts the scoring market almost directly in the middle despite Boston being shut out in Game 1.
With Gray and Fried starting, traders appear to expect another relatively controlled pitching matchup, but not necessarily another shutout.
Padres Have 56% Chance to Eliminate Cubs
The second elimination game begins at 10 p.m. ET at Petco Park.
San Diego currently holds the slightly stronger game probability of the two night favorites.
Kalshi has the Game 2 market around:
- San Diego Padres: 56%
- Chicago Cubs: 44%
San Diego has moved approximately four percentage points higher.
Chicago has moved four points lower.
That is currently the larger move among the two late Wild Card games.
San Diego Took Control of Series in Game 1
The Padres also opened their postseason with a dominant performance.
San Diego shut out Chicago in Game 1, with Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado both homering.
Michael King controlled the Cubs lineup on the mound and gave the Padres the opening victory they needed to put Chicago immediately on the brink of elimination.
The Padres now get another opportunity to close the series at home.
Nick Pivetta Starts Game 2 for Padres
San Diego is expected to turn to Nick Pivetta in Game 2.
Pivetta finished the regular season 3-2 with a 2.86 ERA after returning from a lengthy flexor injury absence.
He gives San Diego another experienced right-handed starter after King handled Game 1.
Chicago entered Wednesday without the same certainty surrounding its Game 2 starter.
That pitching situation provides another reason the Padres have moved higher in the prediction market.
Padres Spread Market Mirrors Yankees
Interestingly, Kalshi's Padres run-line market looks almost identical to the Yankees market.
San Diego currently has approximately a 37% chance to win by more than 1.5 runs.
That means traders favor the Padres to win while remaining considerably less confident in another comfortable victory.
The Cubs only need a one-run win to extend their season.
Cubs-Padres Total Leans Slightly Lower
The Padres game total is currently more cautious than Yankees-Red Sox.
Kalshi gives Over 7.5 runs approximately a 47% chance.
That implies a slight lean toward seven or fewer combined runs.
San Diego's Game 1 pitching performance, plus another favorable starting-pitcher setup, helps explain why the total remains relatively restrained.
Two Wild Card Series Can End Tonight
The Wednesday night schedule gives baseball fans two consecutive elimination games:
- 8 p.m. ET: Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees
- 10 p.m. ET: Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres
The Yankees and Padres each lead their series 1-0.
A win sends either club directly to the Division Series.
A loss means a winner-take-all Game 3 on Thursday.
Kalshi Promo Code WINNERS
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Kalshi offers MLB prediction markets covering game winners, spreads, totals and postseason series outcomes.
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Yankees and Padres Favored to Close Wild Card Series
Wednesday night's prediction markets point toward two home teams finishing their first-round series.
New York currently has approximately a 55% chance to beat Boston.
San Diego is slightly higher at approximately 56% against Chicago.
Neither market is overwhelmingly one-sided.
But both teams already own the advantage that matters most: a 1-0 series lead.
The Yankees and Padres now have one night to turn that advantage into a trip to the Division Series.
Prediction-market prices can change before and during games and represent current trader pricing rather than guarantees. Event-contract trading involves risk. Promotion availability, eligibility requirements and geographic restrictions apply.
