UFC 271: Israel Adesanya vs Robert Whittaker - Prediction - 02/12/22
Israel Adesanya vs Robert Whittaker
Israel Adesanya (21-1) probably needs no big introduction at this point but here’s a quick run down on “The Last Stylebender” and what he’s accomplished. He burst onto the middleweight scene and won his first 6 fights. In his 2nd fight of that stretch he fought ultra tough grinder, Marvin Vettori, en route to a split decision victory. Near the end of that streak he got a shot at former champion, Anderson Silva. At that point, Silva was coming off of a victory over Derek Brunson and wasn’t quite on his full fledged UFC downward spiral just yet so defeating the legend was still a fairly nice feather in the cap. Adesanya then defeated Kelvin Gastelum pretty soundly over 25 minutes, which then netted him his first title shot. Enter Robert Whittaker.
Robert Whittaker (23-5) actually got his UFC start after successfully winning The Ultimate Fighter reality show back in 2012. At that point, a welterweight-sized Whittaker had mixed results as he suffered consecutive losses to Court McGee and Stephen Thompson. He bounced back from those with a win but then headed north to middleweight, where he soon set the division on fire. He won his next 6 fights which set up a fight with Yoel Romero for the vacant interim middleweight title at the time. He won the fight by unanimous decision but would end up locked in the cage for an additional 25 minutes on his next outing in a rematch against Romero. That one ended up quite a bit closer but “The Reaper” won by split decision, although this fight was a non-title fight due to Romero missing weight. Even still, Whittaker would get promoted to undisputed champion shortly after GSP retired.
This set up the first fight between Adesanya and Whittaker. After a competitive first 4 minutes and 30 seconds, Adesanya would drop Whittaker right at the bell. Round 2 would see a repeat event without the bell saving the Australian this time, leading to Adesanya becoming champ via KO.
Adesanya would then go on to defeat the division’s beefcakes - Yoel Romero, Paulo Costa, and Marvin Vettori. The latter of which erased any doubt over the split decision the first time. Sandwiched in there was Adesanya’s first pro loss however, as he jumped up to light heavyweight in an attempt to become champ-champ. Jan Blachowicz used size and ground control to send the City Kickboxing standout back to the middleweight division.
Whittaker got back on track as well, picking up 3 straight unanimous decision victories over Darren Till, Jared Cannonier, and Kelvin Gastelum. And now we’ve arrived at their rematch, taking place this weekend.
Adesanya will stand 4 inches taller and hold a 7 inch reach advantage.
How They Match Up
Adesanya made several “bull and matador” references in his fight against Paulo Costa, but it was actually his first fight with Whittaker that this comparison was truly on display. Adesanya sitting back patiently waiting and Whittaker rushing in periodically with bursts of offense (and usually missing). Adesanya generally keeps his hands pretty low and backs up and leans his head out of the way to avoid shots. That “head straight up” defense can be a death sentence for less experienced kick boxers but Adesanya only has to combine this with a step or two back to get fully out of the way. We saw Sean Strickland utilize this with success last week and he has one of the best defense ratings on the roster. The ranginess of Adesanya certainly helps his case in this regard. Whittaker did have some success on some of those blitzes however and it could be argued that he was winning based on volume (if you remove the two moments where the matador stuck the proverbial Australian bull twice). That final exchange in that fight does show you a couple things though. 1) Adesanya’s accuracy in a frenzy is elite and he’s incredibly dangerous if he can land a shot you don’t see coming. And 2) He is also in considerable danger in these exchanges with his hands so low. If he doesn’t connect there and it’s Whittaker’s hook that finds the mark, the trajectory of that fight could have been vastly different.
Both fighters have gone on to show big improvements in their games since their first encounter and that’s why this rematch should be awesome. Both fighters have exceptional fight IQ so we will see what adjustments are made to secure the W. Whittaker historically would be a striker first and maybe land a takedown here and there, but we’ve seen him really blend the grappling and secure wins against Gastelum and Till in particular. The threat of a potential takedown has made his striking less predictable. He’s also a bit more measured but not at all in a way that compromises his volume. As evidenced by large output numbers in all post-Adesanya fights.
Unfortunately for Bobby Knuckles, Adesanya has also made huge strides in the grappling department as showcased in his last fight with Marvin Vettori. Vettori caught a kick early and took Adesanya down but it wasn’t long before he got back to his feet. The next 2 takedowns Vettori got ended with Adesanya exploding out and reversing position (1 reversing back take to top control and the other a beautiful sweep from the bottom to end up on top). The fourth takedown was a non factor as it was only a brief few seconds where Adesanya was planted. The remaining takedown attempts from Vettori’s grapple-heavy attack involved Adesanya defending against the cage and breaking away when the time was right. Another big improvement was in Adesanya’s head movement - when his back is against the cage and there’s no move backward option, he slipped numerous punches matrix style. He then proceeded to rack up significant strike counts and batter the Italian’s legs in particular from range.
All of this spells danger for Whittaker. But for those looking to pick the dog here, if he chains some takedown attempts at the end of his blitzes then he could very well have significant success stealing rounds. Adesanya did slow down in the later rounds after dealing with a powerhouse in Vettori, grinding on him throughout the fight. If Whittaker does this, I like his chances. The problem is he’s never really done this. He landed a couple beautiful body lock takedowns against Gastelum last fight but those were a result of Gastelum lunging into range and locking up. Gastelum is also the most undersized middleweight on the roster so I’m not putting a ton of stock into it. Adesanya is surely not going to jump into the clinch like that and if grappling isn’t a huge threat then that leaves this to be solved via kickboxing. As solid a striker as Whittaker is, he’s outmatched here. If the finish doesn’t materialize for Adesanya, he won’t force it either as we’ve seen him routinely hold his ground and strike from range. It’s not pretty to watch sometimes but it shows discipline and a commitment to gameplan. For all of these reasons I gotta take Adesanya to retain the title although I’ll be pulling for “The Reaper” to score the upset KO.