UFC on ESPN+ 59: Diana Belbita vs Gloria de Paula - Prediction - 2/19/22
Diana Belbiţă vs Gloria de Paula
Diana Belbita (14-6) would use her Karate, Kickboxing, and Kempo background to put together a 13-4 record in MMA. She mainly fought in the Romanian promotion, Real Xtreme Fighting at bantamweight and flyweight. “The Warrior Princess” would find out that competition in the UFC is a bit stiffer however, dropping her first two UFC bouts to Molly McCann and Liana Jojua. A drop to strawweight would pay dividends as she would secure her first UFC victory in her most recent outing, besting Hannah Goldy by decision.
Gloria de Paula (5-4) would make the most out of her Contender Series fight to secure a UFC contract. Much like Belbita, “Glorinha” would drop her first two UFC fights. Those defeats would come at the hands of Jinh Yu Frey and Cheyanne Vlismas. The latter of those two (and also her most recent fight) would sting the most, as it would be the first time Paula would be separated from consciousness inside the cage. She’ll want to avoid dropping 3 in a row and most likely getting sent packing this Saturday.
She will have to overcome a 2 inch height and 1 inch reach disadvantage against Belbita.
How They Match Up
Belbita’s performance against Goldy was both impressive and frustrating all at once. She dropped her on the feet and proceeded to unload shots seeking the finish and then just sort of fell down, giving Goldy top control. You can’t blame fighters for getting overzealous during potential finishing sequences but this one was really ugly. I like that she at least got it back to the feet quickly but that was in part due to Goldy’s horrendous decision to give her space.
She does have solid boxing and is quite good at punishing lazy low kicks from her opponent with straight shots down the pipe. She also excels at capping her combinations with a low kick. That’s pretty much her entire game in a nutshell.
De Paula sort of has a similar game except she prefers to counter and is really solid striking in the clinch. As shown in her fight with Frey, she has weak takedown defense or no urgency to get the fight back to standing when taken down.
Luckily for De Paula, Belbita isn’t shooting for any takedowns so this one should largely play out as a kickboxing battle. I’m not really going to over analyze it, I think Belbita’s volume and aggression should give her a solid strike count lead. De Paula looking for big counter moments is better suited for athletic fighters with finishing power. Without those attributes, she is simply going to fall behind on the judges’ scorecards. There’s still possibility for split decision territory but momentum is on Belbita’s side.