2020 Offensive Rookie Of The Year Odds & Prediction
The NFL Draft has been long over and the schedule has been released. The regular season is still a few months away but we don’t have many live sports to talk about at the moment so I will start to dig into some of the player awards for the upcoming season. Today I will take a look at the major candidates to take the Offensive Rookie Of The Year award and then give you my prediction on who will take it.
2020 Offensive Rookie Of The Year Odds (Courtesy of Vegas Insider)
Joe Burrow +200
Clyde Edwards-Helaire +700
Tua Tagovailoa +700
Jerry Jeudy +1200
D'Andre Swift +1200
Justin Herbert +1400
Henry Ruggs III +1400
CeeDee Lamb +1800
J.K. Dobbins +2000
Jalen Reagor +2000
Jonathan Taylor +2000
Justin Jefferson +2500
Brandon Aiyuk +3300
Cam Akers +5000
Zack Moss +5000
Those are the top 15 in terms of odds to win the award. I will not discuss all of them but I will take a look at a handful of those players, before giving a final prediction.
Let’s start at the top with Joe Burrow. He is the favorite and with good reason as he was the first player taken in the draft overall. Joe Burrow has a huge upside and he will be a very good pro QB. The question is, can he put on a good show in his first year without a good offensive line and just an average wide receiver corps? We shall see. He had an amazing year at LSU a season ago but he also had a ton of great skill players and it was the only year that was a god one for him in the college ranks. We also note that he will be playing in a division that has some tough defenses in it. Can Burrow win it? That remains to be seen.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire could be a very good choice and at a nice price of +700. He was the first running back taken in the draft when many thought he would be the 3rd one after D’Andre Swift and Jonathan Taylor. Clyde came from a high-powered offense that was run at LSU and he will now be apart of one of the best offensive attacks in the NFL. He had 1414 yards and 16 TDs for the Tigers last year and should step in and have a big year in this offense. Edwards-Helaire also had 453 yards receiving last year and Mahomes does know how to get his skill players the ball. He will have a chance to put up big numbers this year.
Tua Tagovailoa had a solid career at Alabama and is now ready for the NFL. he was taken with the 5th overall pick by the Miami Dolphins as they desperately needed a quarterback. There are a couple of questions with Tua. The first is, can he stay healthy the whole year. The Miami offensive line is not all that good and he is injury prone. He does have a very nice weapon in DeVante Parker, who had 1202 yards receiving last year but there is absolutely no running game to speak of and that could hurt the young QB. We shall see.
The Los Angeles Chargers have had Philip Rivers as their QB for many years but now the offense will be in the hands of Justin Herbert, who they took with the 6th overall pick in the draft. Herbert should be ready to step right in as their top guy and he has a very solid wide receiver corps to throw to. Anthony Lynn also likes an offense that can air it out. Herbert has perhaps the best NFL-ready arm of any of the QBs drafted this year and he could be a solid play at +1400.
Jerry Jeudy has a solid combination of explosiveness and precise route running. He was drafted by the Denver Broncos who need a bit more offense if they hope to make a run at a playoff spot this year. They may have gotten it with the addition of Jeudy, who had 2478 yards receiving and 24 TDs in his last two years at Alabama. He also has strong-armed Drew Lock to get him the ball. Lock really started to show how good he can be with his solid play down the stretch last year. Jeudy could have a big season.
D’Andre Swift was expected to be the first running back taken in the draft but he was the 2nd, behind Clyde Edwards-Helaire. The Detroit Lions have needed a running game to complement their passing game and they have added a nice piece in Swift, who rushed for 2267 yards and 17 TDs in his last two years at Georgia. He also had 513 yards and four TDs receiving in those two years. Swift is a home run threat every time he touches the ball and he could be in line for a very solid season in the Motor City.
The Indianapolis Colts had the 7th best ground attack in the league last year and it could be even better after they took Jonathan Taylor in the 2nd round. I felt that Taylor would have been the first r running back to go in the draft but he was the 3rd. The Colts have Marlon mack, who ran for 1021 yards last year but Taylor could very well steal the number one running back spot from him. The ex-Wisconsin RB rushed for 6174 yards and 50 TDs in three seasons with the Badgers. The Colts also will have a better passing game than a year ago and that should help Taylor find more running lanes. He is worth a look at +2000.
The Dallas Cowboys got a steal when Ceedee Lamb fell into their laps at number 17 in the draft. Dallas had the second-best passing game in the last year and they could have the top passing game this year with the addition of Lamb. They already had Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup, who both had at least 1100 yards receiving last year. The Cowboys could have three 1000-yard receivers this year and that puts Lamb in the mix for Offensive Rookie Of The Year.
Prior to the Draft, I felt that Henry Ruggs (Alabama) would be the 3rd wide receiver take but he was the 1st. The Las Vegas Raiders took him with the 12th overall pick and he could be in store for a solid season. Derek Carr had one of his best seasons as a pro last year and John Gruden gave him a shiny new toy to play with. Ruggs did not have impressive numbers at Alabama but he is a strong route runner and will fit in nicely in this west coast offense. Carr will go deep to Ruggs plenty of time this year and the former Crimson Tide WR could have a very nice season.
Let’s take a look at one more. The Minnesota Vikings lost Stefon Diggs in the offseason but they found his replacement in Justin Jefferson, who had 1540 yards receiving and 18 TDs at LSU a year ago. Kirk Cousins is a quarterback that loves to go deep and that means that Jefferson will fit in nicely here. He is a solid route runner and is very good after the catch. Do not count him, especially with a QB that loves to go deep as much as Cousins does.
Final Word: Many of the pundits feel that it is a forgone conclusion that joe Burrow will be this year’s Offensive Rookie Of the Year. I am not sold on that. He does have a couple of nice weapons to throw to but one of them is AJ Green, who has missed 23 games in the last two years. If he goes down then this offense will be in serious trouble and Burrow will not put up the numbers that he otherwise might. Even with Green, I don’t see him having the monster year than many others do, but he should be in the top five. This draft class is loaded with quality wide receivers and Justin Jefferson (Minnesota), along with Ceedee Lamb and Jerry Jeudy are certainly worth a look. Still, I feel that the ORY will be a running back and I will go with Clyde Edwards-Helaire who is in Kansas City. That offense gives him a great shot at piling up both rushing and receiving yards. Jonathan Taylor could have a solid season but can he take away enough carries from Marlon Mack to win the award. D’Andre Swift also has some competition with Kerryon Johnson in the backfield as well. Final Prediction: Clyde Edwards-Helaire +700