2022 NBA Eastern Semfinals Betting Preview: Miami Heat vs. Philadelphia 76ers

Philadelphia vs. Miami

Miami takes on Philadelphia on Monday in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference semifinals. Miami needed just five games to beat Atlanta. They won Game 5 despite not having Jimmy Butler (knee) as Victor Oladipo stepped up and scored 23 points. That’s a great sign for the Heat because Oladipo played in just eight games this year, averaging 12.4 points on 48% shooting. When healthy, Oladipo is a strong scorer if he starts. Point guard Kyle Lowry (8.3ppg, 5.3apg) played in just three games in the Atlanta series due to a hamstring injury. The Heat can beat the Hawks without Lowry and one game without Butler (30.5ppg, 7.8rpg, 5.3apg playoffs), but they need both of those players, especially “Jimmy Buckets” to beat the Sixers. But the real key is the play of center Bam Adebayo (6-9, 255), who has to try and contain 7-0, 280-pound Joel Embiid. Adebayo has had a quite playoffs (12.4ppg, 8rpg), but averaged 19.1 points, 10. 1 rebounds and 3.4 assists during the regular season. The Sixers took two of three games and they beat the Heat without Embiid in one of the wins. Fortunately, Miami has depth up front with Dewayne Dedmon (7-0, 245) and Omar Yurtseven (7-0, 275), who are big bodies who can lean on the big man.

The Sixers looked absolutely dominant in the first-round series against a pretty good Toronto team until Game 4. Just when it looked as though they were going to sweep the Raptors, who also lost Fred VanVleet to a hip injury. Instead, they lost Game 4 and were booed off their home floor in Game 5 when they fell by 15. However, they woke up in Game 6 and destroyed Toronto 132-97 on Thursday to take the series on the road. Embiid (26.2ppg, 11.3rpg) is not the key because you pretty much know you are going to get 25 and 10 with him, even though he’s playing with a torn ligament in his thumb. The key is the play of the backcourt led by James Harden (19ppg, 10.2apg playoffs) and Tyrese Maxey (21.3ppg, 4.8apg playoffs). Harden is shooting just 40.5% in the playoffs, but he stepped up in Game 6 with 22 points and 15 assists on 7-of-12 shooting. He was finally his aggressive self and assuming he faces Butler, that could be one of the great matchups in the playoffs. If he gets switched onto Tyler Herro, Oladipo or Max Strus, he has to take advantage.

The bottom line is that Miami, if healthy, is the better team here. They have the better defense that ranks fourth in the NBA in points against and field goal percentage. They also rank second in three-point defense. The Sixers aren’t bad either, but they don’t have a Butler on defense or an Adebayo or even a P.J. Tucker. They have Matisse Thybulle, a quality defender, who has struggled on the offensive end in postseason and is averaging just 3.3 points. This is one of those bets where you have to be careful and as of Friday, Lowry, Butler, Herro and Tucker are all questionable due to various issues. Butler should play the entire series, but Lowry appears to be a big question mark. I still would go with the Heat for a small bet because they have excellent depth and Butler is a great two-way player. If he can’t go on Monday and beyond, take the Sixers.

Series Price: Miami -170

Series Current Score: Miami 4-2 +475

Series total games: 6 games +200