2022 NBA Playoffs Betting Preview
2022 NBA Playoffs Preview
The NBA Playoffs start on Saturday, April 16th. First, we have the play-in tournament featuring seeds 7-10. On Tuesday, we have the Brooklyn hosting Cleveland and Minnesota hosting the LA Clippers. On Wednesday, Atlanta will meet Charlotte in a Southeastern Division battle and that will be followed by the Pelicans taking on the Spurs from New Orleans.
Top Five Picks to win the NBA Finals
(odds from Caesars)
1)Phoenix Suns +270
Is this the year Chris Paul finally holds up the Larry O’Brien Trophy? The Suns won 64 games this season despite losing CP3 for 17 games. They have so much talent and depth, that it’s hard to overlook them. Devin Booker (26.8ppg, 5.0rpg, 4.8apg) has become a start, while DeAndre Ayton (17.2ppg, 10.2rpg) is a modern-day big man with the ability to shoot from the perimeter, rebound and protect the rim. If they really need a rim protector on defense, they can bring in JaVale McGee or Bismack Biyombo. The depth that Steve Nash has is astounding and he will need to pair the rotation down in the playoffs to his best nine players. It will not be an easy trip to the Finals because there is so much incredible talent in the West.
2)Memphis Grizzlies +1500
The Grizz are receiving very little respect and that’s understandable due to their history and recent lack of success. But if you are looking for a score, take them at +600 to win the West or you may be able to find better odds. Memphis won 56 games this season and that’s without star point guard Ja Morant for 25 games. Morant did play on Sunday against New Orleans and he racked up 21 points, nine assists and four rebounds. Morant put up 27.4 points and 6.7 assists this season, but what made the Grizzlies’ run more remarkable is that he was injured in mid-March and the team didn’t miss a beat. They won seven straight without him and that included a 122-114 win over Phoenix and 127-102 at home against the Bucks. Thirty-seven-year-old Taylor Jenkins has done a remarkable job with this young team. Dillon Brooks (18.4ppg) is an outstanding defender and one of the most underrated players in the game, but he played in just 32 games. Here’s another team with impressive depth, great athleticism and size with Steven Adams and Jaren Jackson Jr. The bigger question is whether they can play a slower pace in the playoffs (7th in pace).
3)Milwaukee Bucks + 475
Do the Bucks have the hunger for the repeat? What they do have is the best all-around player in the game in Giannis Antetokounmpo, who probably won’t win the MVP (29.9ppg, 11.6rpg), but he’s in the mix. The “Greek Freak” has improved his free throw shooting (72.2%), so the only thing he needs to improve is his three-point shooting (29.3%). He would be unguardable if that happened and he basically already is. Getting Brook Lopez (12.4ppg, 36% 3pt) back from injury gives Milwaukee more size up front and that’s important if they are going to take on Philadelphia at some point and Joel Embiid or Chicago in the first series with Nikola Vucevic. Milwaukee’s defense is certainly capable, but they rank just 11th in field goal percentage defense (45.6%) and 19th in three-point defense (35.6%). You would think with Jrue Holiday and Antetokounmpo defending the perimeter, that defense would not be a huge issue-but it has been this season. The Bucks also have some injury question marks with Grayson Allen (hip), George Hill (abdominal) and Bobby Portis (shoulder) being listed as questionable. Allen has been a major boost for the team as a sometime starter, who averages 11.1 points and shoots 41% from long range. Don’t love them to repeat, but they should win the East (+250).
4)Golden State Warriors +900
If they had all their players at 100%, you’d have to give them consideration to win the West. But Steph Curry (foot) may miss the first game or so of the first round. He hasn’t played since getting hurt on March 16 and the Warriors wound up losing four straight. But they ended the season winning five straight games. The key is Klay Thompson (20.4ppg, 38.5% 3pt), who is coming off an ACL and Achilles injuries. His shooting numbers (42.9% FG) are a little down, but he also put up 41 points, 33 points and 36 in his last three games. Curry (25.5ppg, 6.3apg) was in the MVP conversation before his injury and Draymond Green (7.5ppg, 7.3rpg, 7apg) leads the defense. Golden State ranks second defensive rating according to DunksandThrees.com, second in field goal percentage defense (43.8%) and third in defensive three-point percentage (33.9%). The problem is at center with James Wiseman (knee) out for the season. This is a team that could go far, but you look at that first matchup against Denver and that’s a tough one considering they have to face 7-0 Nikola Jokic.
5)Miami Heat +1200
At one point, the Heat looked like the overwhelming favorite in the East. Then they imploded on March 23 against Golden State (118-104 loss) when star Jimmy Butler got into with Udonis Haslem and coach Erik Spoelstra. But they survived that and losing three straight to win six straight games before falling to Orlando in a meaningless finale on Sunday. The playoffs were made for teams like the Heat, who are physically tough and apparently healthy at this time. Health is always going to be a factor with Butler (21.4ppg, 5.5apg), who runs the team and veteran point guard Kyle Lowry (13.4ppg, 7.5apg). They have the best sixth man in the league in Tyler Herro (20.7ppg, 39.9% 3pt) and an underrated big man in Bam Adebayo (19.1ppg, 10.1rpg). They also have quality depth, but won’t have P.J. Tucker (calf) in the first round. He’s one of those playoff stars, who can defend and hit big shots. They rank second in the NBA in three-point defense and first in three-point shooting (37.9%). But do they have an answer for Antetokounmpo and the Bucks? That seems to be the lingering issue among other things as they are one of the weaker No. 1 seeds I’ve seen in a long time.
Other odds:
Toronto Raptors +4000 to win the Eastern Conference. Love the coach (Nick Nurse), they have great guard play and the East is pretty wide open. They also have an edge against Philadelphia at home since Matisse Thybulle can’t play on the road due to Toronto’s vaccination policies.