2022 World Series Betting Preview as of Oct. 31
Two games into the World Series and there is intrigue aplenty. The series is tied at one, the Phillies are heading home where the runs are and Justin Verlander still loathes the World Series. Let’s take a deep dive into the rest of the series as it likely plays out over this week.
Heading to the Betting Window…
#6 Philadelphia (+145) vs. #1 Astros (-170): The series is tied at one and the numbers have shifted slightly. If you’ve held off until now, the odds are more favorable if you like the Astros to win as it has shifted from -185 to -170. If you waited on jumping on the Phillies bandwagon, you lost some steam as the Phils have shifted from +170 down to +145. Let’s take a look at where this series might go.
Game 3: I like the Astros to get the win in the first game in Philadelphia. All betting eyes will likely turn to the Phillies’ unblemished home record in the playoffs but Citizens Bank Park should be a friendly hitting backdrop to the Astros as well. Houston also had the second-best road record in baseball and are 3-0 on the road in the playoffs. If you are an Astros fan, you have to be enthused by the breakout performance by Jose Altuve in game three. If his bat heats up, it sets the table for the likes of Yordan Alvarez, Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker. I also like Lance McCullars Jr over Noah Syndergaard in this spot. Syndergaard’s loss in velocity gives him much less margin for error with his offspeed stuff and McCullars has been great down the stretch and has more playoff experience. Houston takes game 3.
Games 4 & 5: I’m lumping these two games together for a very good reason. As of this writing, the weather reports prior to game 3 are very dicey. If it is called, the game 3 matchup stays the same but the game four matchup will likely swing over to the Phillies turning to game one starter Aaron Nola. Down a game, Phillies manager Rob Thomson won’t hesitate to go to one of his aces. Dusty Baker will likely stick with Cristian Javier for game 4. He’s been excellent down the stretch and was dominant against the Yankees in his only playoff start. In this matchup, I’m leaning towards the Phillies. Nola won’t pitch two bad games in a row and the Phillies bats will respond in a big way at home.
This means we would be knotted up at 2-2 with a game five on Thursday instead of Wednesday. Now we are looking at the likelihood of a Justin Verlander vs. Zach Wheeler matchup. I can’t see a scenario where Thomson doesn’t roll the dice with a chance to pitch his two best pitchers at home. The Verlander jinx ends here. He’s been too good for too long not to meet his lofty standards, at least one in the Fall Classic. In truth, if he catches that soft line drive in the fourth inning of game one and turns the easy double play, we could be having a completely different conversation here. Astros win an extremely tight game as the exhausted Phillies bullpen gives one up late. Houston and Philadelphia split games four and five.
Game 6: Baker’s gamble to stick with Javier puts him in a prime spot. He sends his ace 1A in Framber Valdez back to the mound at home to bring home the first managerial World Series title of his career. Thomson has played his hand and turns to lefty Ranger Suarez. Unfortunately, the Astros have destroyed left-handed starters this year with a 42-12 record against them. This one isn’t very close and the countdown to the title begins by the sixth. Baker gets his ring and the Astros wash the taste of the cheating scandal out of their mouths. Astros win game 6 and the World Series.
Oh, and as I’ve said before, Jose Altuve gets the MVP and cleans his own slate.
*Current Odds to win the league are in parenthesis, courtesy of draftkings.com