Ashley Yoder vs Livinha Souza Odds and Preview, UFC 252 Prelims
The UFC 252 Prelims offer strawweight women’s action as Ashley Yoder and Livinha Souza battle for top-15 ranking considerations. Both fighters are unofficially grouped just outside the division’s twenty best by various outlets. To heighten suspense, each combatant enters Saturday with a recent loss. Urgency will be palpable at the Apex Center when the Octagon door closes behind these athletes.
Ashley Yoder (7-5, +140)
Ashley ‘Spider Monkey’ Yoder fell just shy last October of running her UFC win streak to three fights. In a tight call the Team Quest standout was edged by Randa Markos. After making her name in the TUF 20 house, Markos "continued an alternating win-loss Octagon run by outstriking Yoder 94-82 to override two takedowns.
A sentimental favorite for using MMA as a positive escape amid personal tragedy, Ashley Yoder is solid in all areas, but lacks signature victory through 12 paid bouts. ‘Spider Monkey’ entered Octagon consciousness by defeating promotional veteran Jodie Esquibel during their TUF 23 encounter. However, subsequent losses vs. Kate Jackson, Justine Kish, Angela Hill, Mackenzie Dern and Markos make Yoder litmus test fodder. The Dern and Markos setbacks came by split decision, however, and sandwich the former high school cheerleader's two UFC hand-raisers.
Even while she has the more recognizable name, Yoder enters Saturday a slight +140 underdog. The main purpose of the dedicated striker’s next mission is to determine where Souza fits among Zuffa’s pecking order. Overall, Yoder adds 2.67 significant strikes landed per minute, 1.25 takedowns per 15 minutes and 0.75 subs per 15 minutes.
Livinha Souza (13-2, -160)
Souza enters this weekend shouldering a loss to then-surging Brianna Van Buren last July, and hasn't competed since. However, the former Invicta FC strawweight champion owns four wins in five tries and is 2-1 vs. Octagon fare -including an erasure of Sarah Frota's unbeaten mark and quick sub over Alex Chambers. The only blemishes on Souza's paid mark come from Angela Hill and the aforementioned Van Buren. Both fighters stand on the cusp of title contention after padding their UFC resumes.
Overall, Souza boasts eight subs in 13 paid wins, with two TKO's for good measure. A grappling ace from her storied BJJ homeland, the Brazilian averages an eye-opening 4.59 takedowns and 3.59 submissions per 15 minutes. While Yoder offers four paid subs, the numbers and background attest Souza owns a considerable mat edge vs. her Saturday assignment.
For that reason, I'll take 'The Brazilian Gangsta' to plant, control and submit a game-but-outmatched Ashley Yoder. I believe the odds are closer than normal due to Souza's lay-off. Though, the 28-year-old should bounce back after a round spent plying trade vs. Yoder.
Winner: Livinha Souza by submission
Odds courtesy of BestFightOdds.com