Atlanta United FC vs. Miami CF Prediction, Preview, and Odds - 9/29/21

Eastern Conference foes battling for playoff positioning will square off in a huge match on Wednesday night when Inter Miami CF visits Atlanta United at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Miami will need to recover quickly from a 5-1 blowout loss to Nashville SC last Wednesday as a +258 home underdog to fall into 10th place in the East at 9-5-11. Atlanta holds the eighth and final playoff spot at 9-9-8, although it is coming off a 1-0 road loss to the Philadelphia Union last Saturday as a +301 underdog.

These teams played to a 1-1 draw back in early May at Lockhart Stadium. Miami leads 2-3-0 since joining MLS prior to the 2020 season.

Miami blown out for second straight game

Following a run of losing just once in a span of 12 matches, Miami has now been outscored 9-1 over its last two games as it took an ugly home defeat against Nashville last Wednesday. Things got out of hand quickly as Nashville opened the scoring in the sixth minute before adding two more in the first half, and only a nice finish by Gonzalo Higuain in the 64th minute kept Miami from getting shut out.

Miami did manage 55% possession as it chased the game, but it was all Nashville otherwise with the visitors holding a 19-8 advantage in total shots. Rodolfo Pizarro picked up an assist with a nice pace to set up Miami’s lone goal, while Nick Marsman made five saves facing heavy pressure all game.

It’s about players taking accountability. Making silly mistakes. No excuses. That is the worst excuse. We had players on that field well capable of defending those five goals really well,” manager Phil Neviile said to The Miami Herald. “We’re hiding behind excuses and not taking accountability for simple, basic fundamentals of defending and it’s unacceptable and I have to take full responsibility.”

While things have gotten a lot better over the last three months, Miami still has poor stats on both sides of the ball thanks to an awful start, averaging exactly one goal on 9.28 shots per match. Opponents are putting up 1.60 goals and 12.36 shots per match, with Miami keeping five clean sheets.

Higuain is having an outstanding season to pace Miami’s offense with 10 goals and four assists, both of which lead the team. Robbie Robinson has scored four times in just 12 starts, while Pizarro now has three goals and one assist.

Starting midfielder Gregore will be suspended for Wednesday’s match due to yellow card accumulation. The defense has been hit hard by injuries, with Ventura Alvarado (undisclosed), Joevin Jones (knee), Ryan Shawcross (undisclosed) and Ian Fray (undisclosed) all out. Midfielder Victor Ulloa is also out for undisclosed reasons after making 14 starts earlier in the season.

Atlanta’s three-match winning streak comes to an end

A strong run since Gonzalo Pineda took over managing duties on August 12 has helped Atlanta climb into playoff position, but it couldn’t quite keep up with a top four team on the road in Philadelphia last week. With star Josef Martinez getting a day off due to knee soreness, Atlanta’s offense couldn’t get much of anything going, and the Union finally scored the breakthrough in the 70th minute to ensure all three points.

While possession was about even, Atlanta had just six total attempts, only two of which went on target. Brad Guzan made five saves in the first half alone to at least keep things scoreless until the late stages, while Atlanta’s only real chance came early in the second half when Marcelino Moreno’s seeing-eye shot was stopped by Philadelphia.

"I will have to reflect on that. I will reflect first on myself if the preparation was good. Did we prepare the players in any way, whether it's physical, tactical or mental preparation. I have to go with my staff and reflect on what we did,” Pineda said via The Atlanta Journal-Constituiton. There was a complete lack of intensity on and off the ball in the first half. I felt that the second half was a little better.

The attack hasn’t quite been at the same level in 2021 as previous seasons for Atlanta with an average of 1.35 goals and 13.03 shots per match. Atlanta’s defense has generally been solid, allowing 1.19 goals and 13.57 shots per match while keeping seven clean sheets.

After missing nearly all of last season with a torn ACL, Martinez hasn’t missed a beat with a team-high nine goals in 17 matches. Ezequiel Barco has seven goals and a team-high five assists, while Moreno has scored seven times while dishing out four helpers.

Martinez was considered day-to-day with knee trouble, so it seems likely he should be back in the lineup for an important match. Defender Ronald Hernandez has been limited to nine matches and is currently sidelined by an illness. Midfielders Franco Ibarra (hamstring) and Emerson Hyndman (knee) are also sidelined.

Side prediction: Atlanta 1 (-105)

Total: Under 2.5 (+102)

While the hot streak in July and August helped Miami get out of the basement, it has reverted back to early-season form with two horrendous performances in a row. Atlanta’s attack has looked much better since Pineda took over as manager, and it is very tough to beat at home which will lead to a win by multiple goals here.

The talent has been there for Atlanta to play better offensively than it has shown throughout the season, and Pineda’s new-look attack is averaging 1.75 goals per game in the eight matches since he took over. Things slowed down last weekend against a great Philadelphia defense, but getting the superstar Martinez back in the lineup changes everything and Miami has been far easier for opponents to break down.

Miami’s bigger issue is that it has one of the worst offenses in MLS with little scoring depth to support Higuain, and the Atlanta defense is solid enough. Atlanta is 7-3-3 at home this season with two of those losses coming to the best teams in the East, and Miami doesn’t have nearly enough to keep up in its current form.

While Atlanta can tally multiple goals here, it’s hard to trust the over when Miami offers so little in attack. Miami is last in MLS by a healthy amount with just 0.91 expected goals per game, and things won’t be easy in this one as Atlanta’s defense is solidly above average across the board, particularly with Guzan playing well in net.

Miami’s defense isn’t great but certainly grades out better than its offense, and has been good on the road for whatever reason with 1.48 expected goals allowed per match. Atlanta has a great chance at a clean sheet here, and Miami’s defense will get in the way enough to ensure a 2-0 scoreline.