Austin FC vs. LAFC Prediction, Preview and Odds - 7/7/21

A pair of Western Conference clubs coming off big wins, will look to keep the momentum rolling on Wednesday night when LAFC visits Austin FC at Q2 Stadium. LAFC is in fifth place in the West at 4-3-4 after battling for a 1-0 win at Real Salt Lake on Saturday to hit at +116 odds on the money line. Austin FC had little trouble with the Portland Timbers last Thursday in a 4-1 home win to cash in as a +123 dog and move into 10th place in the conference at 3-4-5.

These teams met in Austin FC's first-ever MLS match back on April 17,, with LAFC winning 2-0 to hit as a massive -247 home favorite.

LAFC earns first road win of the season in Salt Lake City

LAFC entered the weekend having been outscored 26-1-1 in its last 12 road games, so finally picking up a win away from home on Saturday could be huge as it attempts to get some separating from the crowded middle of the Western Conference table. Most of the dangerous chances on the night belonged to Real Salt Lake with LAFC goalkeeper Thomas Romero making three excellent saves to preserve the 0-0 deadlock, and Jose Cifuentes finally broke through with a goal in the 69th minutes.

Cifuentes' strike was the only shot on goal for LAFC all night compared to four for Real Salt Lake, which also held 58% possession. Eddie Segura helped LAFC effort with an assist to set up Cifuentes, while also making a goal-line clearance to preserve the lead late on a Real Salt Lake chip shot that got over Romero's head.

LAFC hasn't been nearly as potent offensively as in previous seasons, while averaging just 1.18 goals and 13.27 shot attempts per game. This one of the better LAFC defensive units since the club was formed in 2018 however, as opponents are managing only 1.09 goals and 10.72 shot attempts per match. Romero's strong effort over the weekend gave LAFC its third clean sheet of the season, as it also shut out FC Dallas two weeks ago.

Corey Baird has been LAFC's most productive player with three goals and two assists, while Cifuentes and Diego Rossi have also found the back of the net three times. After missing last season, 2019 MLS MVP Carlos Vela has provided one goal and a team-high three assists, despite starting just three games.

Starting left back Diego Palacios is just returning from Copa America duty with Ecuador and it's unclear when he will be back in the LAFC lineup. Forward Kwadwo Opoku has been limited to four games with a knee injury and is still out.

Austin FC snaps eight-match winless streak with first victory in new stadium.

It's been an uneven inaugural season for Austin FC as expected from an expansion side, but the team turned in its best MLS performance to date last Thursday against Portland to treat a sold-out home crowd to a win. Jon Gallagher gave the hosts the lead with a 28th-minute tap-in before Diego Fagundez added another five minutes later, and Austin FC kept piling on with late goals from Alexander Ring and Hector Jimenez.

Austin FC held a whopping 70% possession and recorded eight shots on target to just one for the Timbers, although that lone Portland effort on goal went in the next just before halftime. Cecilio Dominguez earned man-of-the-match honors with strong play all-around while recording two assists.

Offense has been the main issue for the MLS newcomers, as Austin FC is averaging a paltry 0.83 goals per game despite recording a respectable 14.36 shots attempts per game. Austin FC has put together a strong defense in its first season, allowing an average of exactly one goal per game, although opponents are racking up a lot of shots at 18.45 per game. Goaltender Brad Stuver has kept four clean sheets, three of which resulted in scoreless draws.

Dominguez has been Austin FC's top playmaker with three goals and two assists on the season. Fagundez is tied with him at the top of the team leaderboard with three goals, while Jared Stroud has dished out a club-high three assists.

There are some injury issues for Austin FC, most notably starting left back Ben Sweat, who is done for the season after tearing his ACL in April. Starting right back Nick Lima is also out with a strained hamstring and it's unclear when he will return. Midfielder Ulises Segura has yet to play this year after undergoing knee surgery just before the start of the season. Striker Danny Hoesen will miss significant time with a hip problem, while forward Aaron Schoenfield has yet to play due to a knee injury.

Pick: Austin FC +205

While this is a talent mismatch, it has been an uninspiring season for LAFCS, particularly on the road, and Austin FC has built a strong enough defensive system to remain competitive in most matches. With Austin FC riding high after finally breaking through at home last week in front of the most raucous crowds we've seen in MLS, LAFC is certainly on upset watch here.

The offense just hasn't been there for LAFC despite all their attacking options, as they have a middling 16.3 expected goals for the season and have scored more than once in just three matches all season, all of which were at home. Austin FC has struggled even more to score, but there are some players who can create offense in their lineup like Ring and Tomas Pochettino, with productive stats showing the team has been a bit unlucky to tally so few goals.

One big factor will be that LAFCS is on a short turnaround after playing in altitude at Salt Lake City on Saturday with Austin FC having two more days of rest. Austin FC is much improved from the first week of the season when it lost this matchup, and it worth a bet at these plus odds.

Total: Under 2.5 (even)

This will certainly still be a challenge for the Austin FC offense, as LAFC has been carried to a decent overall record thanks to its defense, something nobody expected heading into the season. LAFC has some of the best advanced stats in the league with only 10.5 expected goals allowed and has been only getting better

Josh Wolff and the Austin FC coaching staff have done a great job installing a defensive system that gives up a lot of possession, but limits dangerous chances and the team has only allowed five goals in its last six matches. Neither team has shown enough firepower for this to go over the total, especially considering Austin FC will go for a pretty conservative approach early on against a more talented opponent.