CF Montreal vs. Columbus Crew SC Prediction, Preview and Odds - 5/1/21
The defending MLS Cup champion Columbus Crew will look to pick up their first win of the season on Saturday afternoon when they take on CF Montreal in Fort Lauderdale. Columbus has only played one match so far this season, a scoreless tie at home against the Philadelphia Union two weekends ago with the draw cashing in at -114 odds. Montreal is one of the early season surprises at 1-0-1 as a heavy underdog in both games, as it tied 2-2 at Nashville SC on Saturday with the draw hitting at massive +558 odds.
These teams met once last season in early October, with Montreal pulling off a 2-1 upset. Columbus leads the head-to-head series 10-8-3 all-time.
Columbus offense slow out of the gate
After opening their 2021 domestic campaign with a scoreless draw against Philadelphia, the Crew had last weekend off from MLS competition as they play in the CONCACAF Champions League. In an opening weekend match that pitted the defending MLS Cup champions against the reigning Supporters’ Shield holders, both teams looked rusty offensively, as the Crew only managed six shots on target and 47% possession.
Eloy Room had to make a couple of good stops to preserve the shutout, with Philadelphia generating five shots on target. Artur had the best shot on net for Columbus in the 83rd minute after Philadelphia failed to clear a free kick, but two-time MLS Goalkeeper of the Year Andre Blake made a terrific reaction save.
That was an uncharacteristic performance for the Columbus offense, which was fourth in the East last season at 1.57 goals per game and was only shut out twice for the entire year. The Columbus defense is picking up where it left off after allowing just 0.91 goals per game last year and kept three straight clean sheets in the playoffs en route to a title.
Just about everyone from last year’s roster is back, including star midfielder Lucas Zelarayan who tallied six goals and seven assists in the regular season before being named MLS Cup MVP. Midfielder Gyasi Zardes led the Crew with 12 regular season goals while adding four assists. The Crew made some additions to the roster, including bringing in Bradley Wright-Phillips, who scored eight goals with LAFC last year and is now sixth all-time on the MLS scoring list.
Columbus had dealt with numerous injuries for the past month, but head coach Caleb Porter said that all but two players are fit this week. Midfielder Kevin Molino, another offseason addition who scored nine goals with Minnesota United last year, is out for at least another month with a hamstring injury. Reserve midfielder Aidan Morris injured his knee last week and is out.
CF Montreal holds on to get another result
After pulling off a major upset of Canadian rival Toronto FC to open the season, Montreal managed a 2-2 road draw against a solid Nashville team last weekend, but will be a little upset not to grab all three points. Mason Toye opened the scoring in the 13th minute before Zachary Brault-Guillard added another goal right before half, only for Nashville to score in the 54th and 77th to force a draw.
Nashville recorded 18 shots and eight shots on target, so Montreal goaltender Clement Diop was busy and had to make a terrific save on a Randall Leal shot from close distance just moments after conceding the first goal. Montreal was outplayed for the vast majority of the match, as it had only four shots on target and 43% possession.
Through two matches, Montreal is tied with NYCFC atop the MLS leaderboard with three goals per game while averaging 10.5 shots per contest. Defense was a massive issue for Montreal in 2020, and things are off to a rocky start this season with opponents putting up two goals and 15 shots per game.
Toye scored early in the match against Toronto as well and is the only Montreal player with multiple goals early on. Romell Quioto, who led the team in scoring last season, has a goal and an assist so far. Offseason addition Djordje Mihalovic has fit in quickly as Montreal’s primary playmaker and scored a goal against Toronto.
Montreal is mostly healthy with just two bench players on the injury report. Winger Ballou Tabla is questionable with a groin injury, while fellow winger Lassi Lappalainen is recovering from a shoulder injury.
Side: Columbus +132
It’s been an impressive start to the season for a CF Montreal team that was expected to finish in the lower half of the Eastern Conference, but this will be a much more difficult match against the defending champs. Columbus is an excellent team all around and will be able to pick apart the weak Montreal back line, giving the Crew great value to win outright at these odds.
The defensive issues are going to bite Montreal even harder soon enough, and not being organized against a team that features superstars like Zelarayan and Darlington Nagbe is asking for trouble. Don’t expect the Crew to be as rusty offensively as they were in the opener again, and there’s also plenty of depth here to offset the fact they played a match on Wednesday, with the still effective Wright-Phillips available off the bench.
Columbus will also be able to slow down the prolific Montreal offense, as its defense is about as good as it gets in MLS and controlled the opener against a good Philadelphia team. Getting the Crew at plus odds is usually going to be good value this season, and Montreal won’t keep its current pace up.
Total: Over 3 (+110)
Even against the strong Crew defense, Montreal probably isn’t going to get blanked here, as it scored twice on a stingy Nashville team and made solid additions to what was already a good offense over the offseason. Mihailovic appears on the verge of a breakout, as he’s been one of the more productive MLS players through two games by expected goals and expected assist metrics.
Defense was the concern heading in after Montreal allowed nearly two goals per game last season, and it was fortunate not to concede three or more times against Nashville. Montreal looks like it is going to play in a lot of high-scoring games this season and the over is the play here as Columbus has too much firepower to handle.
