CF Montreal vs. Toronto FC, Prediction, Preview & Odds - 4/17/21
Opening weekend of the 2021 MLS season will feature an All-Canadian rivalry showdown CF Montreal takes on Toronto FC on Saturday afternoon in Fort Lauderdale. Montreal is coming off a ninth-place finish in the Eastern Conference at 8-2-13 and qualified for the postseason play-in round, where it lost 2-1 to the New England Revolution to be eliminated. Toronto had the second-best record in the East last season at 13-5-5, but was bounced in the first round of the playoffs with a 1-0 loss to Nashville SC.
These teams met four times last year including a group stage match in the MLS is Back Tournament, with Toronto winning three of the meetings. Toronto leads the Canadian Classique 13-8-4 since both teams joined MLS.
Toronto hopes to build on a bounce-back season
After a rare down season in 2019, Toronto returned to form last regular season by falling just three points short of the Supporters’ Shield despite not being able to play at home for most of the year. Things ended in disappointing fashion with a first-round playoff loss to Nashville SC, but Toronto is running it back with the same successful core it had for years and should head to the postseason again.
The club won’t be exactly the same, as head coach Greg Vanney left for the LA Galaxy after leading Toronto to the 2017 MLS Cup and Supporters’ Shield plus two other Eastern Conference titles in seven seasons. Chris Armas, who was the head coach of New York Red Bulls the last three seasons and led the team to the 2018 Supporters’ Shield, takes over for Vanney and will have playoff expectations right away.
Toronto’s lineup will return 10 starters, as reigning MLS MVP Alejandro Pozuelo is back after racking up nine goals and nine assists last season. Ayo Akinola could be one of the league’s most exciting players to watch after scoring nine goals at age 20 last year.
The only key offseason departure is a big one, as Pablo Piatti moved to the Spanish league after putting up four goals and three assists in his lone season with Toronto. Homegrown forward Jordan Perruzza is the only addition to the first team and likely won’t start for now. One player who could be in the rotation soon is 16-year-old Jahkeele Marshall-Rutty, who is getting attention from major clubs like Bayern Munich.
Toronto finished around mid-pack last season with 1.43 goals per game, and slowed down in the final few fixtures after a strong start. Opponents put up 1.13 goals per game last season, and Toronto’s +7 goal differential was only the 11th-best in MLS even with the club’s lofty win-loss record.
Injuries are already a concern, as a whopping 10 players were unable to go in a CONCACAF Champions League match against Leon last week. Most have returned healthy and will be able to play this weekend, but the status of both Pozuelo and Akinola with undisclosed injuries is unknown. Jozy Altidore also left the first leg against Leon with an apparent hamstring injury after missing much of last season with the same problem, and is considered day-to-day.
Montreal enters season of uncertainty hoping to surprise
CF Montreal has now finished ninth in the Eastern Conference in three of the last four years with a playoff drought that stretches back to 2016, and while that isn’t expected to end this season, a roster that was remade via trades and academy promotions could surprise. It will have to do so under a new coaching staff,as French legend Thierry Henry left the head job after one season due to family reasons, with assistant Wilfried Nancy taking over.
Top scorer Romell Quioto is back after putting in eight goals a season ago. Defensive midfielder Victor Wanyama, formerly of EPL side Tottenham is the club’s best all-around player and scored two goals with an assist last season.
There will be several new faces in the regular lineup, as defensive back and captain Jukka Raitala signed with Minnesota United in the offseason. Forward Orji Okwonkwo, voted the team MVP in 2019 with eight goals and two assists, struggled in 2020 and was loaned to Serie B team Reggina. Bojan Krkic, a former Barcelona prospect who scored seven goals in two seasons with Montreal, was also not brought back.
To fill the needs, Montreal made several trades with other MLS teams, including bringing in 22-year-old Djordje Mihailovic from the Chicago Fire to act as the team’s primary creative playmaker. Kiki Struna was brought over from the Houston Dynamo to help shore up what was an awful defense in 2020, although that move cost Montreal striker Maxi Urruti.
Montreal was a solid offense last season, finishing with 1.43 goals per game, tied with Toronto for fifth-most in the Eastern Conference. The problems came on the other end, as Montreal allowed 1.87 goals per game, the worst mark in the conference and fourth-worst in all of MLS.
There are no current injury reports coming out of Montreal’s camp, and it had several key regulars play in an exhibition match against the Tampa Bay Rowdies on Monday.
Side pick: Toronto FC -102
There are fair questions about how Toronto will perform this year as some of its key players get deeper into their 30s, but the club will still be in the top half of MLS and has the same core that has been very successful for over half a decade. Toronto has more high-end talent and depth than their Canadian rivals, and this is a tough first assignment for Montreal after a lot of change in the offseason.
While Toronto faded near the end of last year as some of the older players wore down with nagging injuries, the team lost just twice in its first 20 matches and will be tough with everyone fresh at the start of the new season. That experienced group can pick apart Montreal, which has new players all over the field with some uncertainty of how they will fit together.
There’s plenty of promise with the new young players Montreal brought in both from other teams and the academy, but they haven’t produced much at the MLS level yet, and it just might not happen in the first game. While the injury report needs to be monitored, Toronto can handle this Montreal team even if a couple of regulars are out.
Total Pick: Over 2.5 (-130)
The CF Montreal defense was horrendous last season with 43 goals allowed and even worse marks by the expected goals metric, and while it should be at least slightly better, it’s going to be tough for the new group to have much chemistry. A couple of new players who will be leaned on heavily in defense are Struna and Kamal Miller, who weren’t even starters last season on other teams and Toronto’s playmaking front is going to be hard to deal with.
Toronto figures to be a stronger team offensively than defensively again in 2021, and the central defense was very vulnerable by the end of last year particularly in the shocking playoff loss to Nashville. Mihailovic has a ton of playmaking potential he might start to fully realize after the change of scenery and will help Montreal avoid getting blanked here, which will take the total over.
