Chicago Fire FC vs. NYCFC Prediction, Preview, and Odds - 9/29/21
Intro
New York City FC will be looking to maintain its position in the Eastern Conference when it travels to Chicago on Wednesday. NYCFC is coming off a 1-0 loss to the Red Bulls over the weekend. The Fire are winless in their last five matches, including a 0-0 draw against Nashville on Sunday.
NYCFC searching for a rare win
NYCFC will be looking for just its second win in its last seven matches when it takes the pitch on Wednesday. It has lost three of its last six contests, playing to two draws along the way. One of those losses came against the Red Bulls on Saturday. Omir Fernandez scored two minutes before halftime in what ended up being the only goal scored in the rivalry meeting. NYCFC dominated possession, controlling the ball for 65% of the match. However, it was outshot 6-4 in shots on target. New York City has now been blanked six times this season. Goalie Sean Johnson finished with seven saves.
NYCFC is currently in third place in the Eastern Conference, trailing Nashville by six points. Philadelphia and Orlando City are each one point back in the table, while DC United and Montreal are two points behind. This has become close to a must-win match for the visitors. It would mark the longest winless stretch of the season if they cannot come through with three points. NYCFC has been solid at the end of matches, scoring nine goals in the final 15 minutes of play this year (fifth-most in the MLS). The Pigeons face Nashville this weekend, so this is potentially a look-ahead spot.
Chicago continues to struggle
Chicago comes into this match having gone winless in its last five contests. The Fire did snap a four-match losing skid its last time out, though, picking up a point in a nil-nil draw against Nashville on Sunday. They had dropped matches to Sporting Kansas City, DC United, Montreal and New England in their previous four outings. The first three losses were all shutouts, so they have now been blanked in four of their last five contests. Chicago had 63% of the possession against Nashville, but it was unable to score on its four shots on goal. Nashville rested its leading scorer in the draw.
The Fire have been one of the worst teams in the conference, sitting third from the bottom heading into Wednesday’s matches. They are 13 points behind Montreal for the final playoff spot. Coach Raphael Wicky chose to play six players who were 23 or younger against Nashville, so it appears that he could be looking ahead to next season. It would take a miracle finish for his team to appear in the postseason. The Fire are going to be on the road for five of their final seven matches. They have only picked up one road win this season, which makes their playoff chances appear even slimmer. However, they have only lost two of their last 10 home matches.
Spread (Chicago +0.5)
Home-field advantage has been a massive factor in how Chicago has played this season. It has really struggled to get anything done on the road, but it has only lost two of its last 10 matches at Soldier Field. The Fire are coming off one of their better results in recent outings, picking up a point against Nashville. They featured a young lineup in that contest and should have a similar group on the field in this game. NYCFC is not in its best form, getting shut out for the sixth time its last time out. There is value on the home underdog in this match.
Total (Under 3)
The under is an even stronger play than the side in this contest. If Chicago is going to pick up a point as I anticipate, the under is very likely to cash. The Fire have been blanked in four of their last five matches. They really struggle to generate any quality chances in the final third and they are facing a solid defensive side on Wednesday. NYCFC has scored one goal or fewer in four of its last six contests. This is not going to be a high-scoring tilt—I think a push is a worst-case scenario.
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