Chicago Fire vs. Real Salt Lake Prediction, Preview, and Odds - 10/23/21

Real Salt Lake will look to move into playoff position with a win over the Chicago Fire on Saturday night at Soldier Field. After picking up a huge 3-1 home win over the Colorado Rapids last weekend to cash in as +173 underdog, Real Salt Lake is now in eighth place the Western Conference at 12-6-11 on the season. Chicago is having a tough year in 12th place in the East at 8-7-16, but picked up a 4-3 win at Cincinnati on Wednesday night to hit at +163 odds.

These teams haven’t met since battling to a 1-1 draw back in June of 2019. The all-time series is knotted up at seven wins apiece with nine draws.

Real Salt Lake moves into eighth with emphatic win in Rocky Mountain Cup

Facing a tough assignment last Saturday against the third place Rapids, Real Salt Lake responded with one of its best performances of the season in a 3-1 win to move within one point of the seventh and final playoff spot in the West. Damir Kreilach continued his terrific season with a 13th minute goal to open the scoring before Rubio Rubin doubled the lead in the 56th on a short-range attempt, and while Colorado would pull one back off a corner in the 73rd, Real Salt Lake got some insurance deep into stoppage time on Anderson Julio’s goal to secure all three points.

Colorado finished with a 12-8 advantage in total shots while holding 52% possession, but five of Real Salt Lake’s attempts went on target and three of those found the back of the net. Kreilach was also credited with two assists to round out a huge night, while David Ochoa came up with two saves and dealt with some pressure down the stretch well as the Rapids came close to an equalizer multiple times.

“As the game wore on they were pushing for it, but the great thing for me was that I felt like we were solid defensively. We did a really good job of managing those moments, whereas in games past I felt like we were a lot more loose in that regard. I think there were some really big performances tonight, including the three in the back line,” interim head coach Pablo Mastroeni said to Real Salt Lake’s official website about his team’s performance in the big win.

The offense has been clicking this season for Real Salt Lake, which is averaging 1.66 goals on 12.82 shots per match. It’s a different story for a struggling defense allowing 1.55 goals and 14 shots per game while keeping six clean sheets for the season.

Kreilach has been one of MLS’ best players this season with 14 goals and seven assists to pace the potent Real Salt Lake attack. Defender Aaron Herrera has dished out a team-high nine assists, while Rubin is having a big season with eight goals and five helpers.

Real Salt Lake enters the stretch run mostly healthy, although center back Marcelo Silva has not played in over a month due to an undisclosed issue after making 19 starts this season and his status is unknown moving forward. Striker Bobby Wood and defender Andrew Brody are both playing on loan with the Real Monarchs of the USL as they attempt to get back into game shape after missing significant time with injury.

Stojanovic’s last-second strike gives Chicago another victory

It’s too little too late for the Fire to make a playoff push, but they have at least turned in some strong performances lately and came out on top of a wild shootout by a 4-3 final score on Wednesday night in

Cincinnati. Robert Beric scored twice in a three-minute span early in the first half to stake Chicago to a quick lead, but Cincinnati would quickly battle back to even things before halftime. Alvaro Medran put the Fire up again in the 71st on an excellent free kick only for the hosts to tie it dramatically in stoppage time, yet it was still Chicago that prevailed as Luka Stojanovic turned in a goal of the year candidate with a rocket from outside the box on essentially the last kick of the game.

Eleven of Chicago’s 16 attempts on the night hit the target, with the Fire holding 59% possession in the up-and-down game. Teenager Gabriel Slonina did just enough with three saves, while Mauricio Pineda and Ignacio Aliseda each helped set up a goal in the first half with strong shot attempts that Beric tapped in on the rebound both times.

“I think we dropped off a little bit and we let them back into the game. But I think we came out the second half, we made some adjustments and the team played really well. We moved the ball extremely well. We made good decisions. We could have been a little bit more dangerous in the final third and decisive to finish the action,” interim head coach Frank Klopas said to Chicago’s website regarding the wild back-and-forth game.

Despite the recent surge, Chicago still has poor numbers on both sides of the ball with an average of 1.13 goals and 13.64 shots per match. Opponents are putting up 1.65 goals and 13.64 shots per game against the Fire defense, which has kept seven clean sheets this season.

Stojanovic is the leader of the Chicago offense with eight goals and an assist this season despite only starting 15 matches. Beric is now not far behind with seven goals and two assists, while Medran has a team-best six assists to go along with his three goals.

Chicago figures to be without one of its best players again on Saturday, as defender Boris Sekulic remains sidelined by a back injury. Fellow defenders Francisco Calvo and Carlos Teran are also likely to miss this weekend due to thigh injuries after combining to start 26 games earlier in the year. Goaltender Kenneth Kronholm is still recovering from a torn ACL suffered last August.

Side prediction: Real Salt Lake +0.5 (-120)

Total: Over 3 (+102)

Even though Chicago has turned in some impressive results lately, it shouldn’t be this big of a favorite against a Real Salt Lake team that is making a late-season push of its own. A more rested Real Salt Lake side will challenge the shaky Chicago defense, and the visitors will be able to at least get a result here behind a significant firepower advantage.

This Real Salt Lake attack travels well as it ranks seventh in MLS with 1.50 expected goals per game scored, and Kreilach figures to be the best player on the pitch as he is in fantastic form with a goal in five straight games. Chicago’s defense is well in the bottom third in MLS in most statistical categories, and giving up three goals to last-place Cincinnati just a couple days before won’t be the best confidence boost for the backline or the 17-year-old netminder Slonina.

A big key in this bet is that Chicago played on the road on Wednesday night and could have some key veterans limited, while Real Salt Lake had a week off and will be going all out with the postseason still in reach. The Fire have been beatable at home with a 6-5-5 record, and despite their recent surge, Real Salt Lake is still the better team all around.

Chicago’s offense has been in its best form lately and could get in another shootout here with a Real Salt Lake side that tends to play more high-scoring games. The Fire have been unfortunate to post such modest scoring numbers all season as they rank seventh in MLS with 1.66 expected goals per game, and have turned in strong results in the past two weeks by putting multiple goals past both the New England Revolution and NYCFC, two elite opposing defenses.

Real Salt Lake is third-worst in the league in expected goals allowed on the road while Chicago is bottom five in the same stat during home games, so neither defense inspires much confidence. It is very unlikely that either team keeps a clean sheet here, and this will be another high-scoring game between teams that have been tallying a lot of goals lately.