Chris Weidman vs. Omari Akhmedov Prediction and Odds, UFC Vegas 6 Main Card
Former middleweight ruler Chris Weidman (14-5, -115) looksto prove he can still absorb paid MMA strikes this weekend following five knockout losses in six fights. Weidman hasn't regained form since a 2015 TKO championship loss vs. Luke Rockhold. Since, the man who finally dethroned Anderson Silva has been rubbed within distance by Yoel Romero, Gegard Mousasi, Ronaldo Souza and Dominick Reyes. The Reyes loss was especially troubling as the recent light heavyweight title challenger essentially knocked Weidman unconscious with a light jab. Moving back to 185, Weidman seeks his first win since tapping Kelvin Gastelum in 2017.
Before his abrupt chin issues surfaced, "All American" twice beat a faded Anderson Silva for the middleweight championship. Top Weidman moments also include belt defenses against older versions of Lyoto Machida and Vitor Belfort. It can be said Weidman's marquee victories all come against faded competition.
That stated, the New Yorkerstill poses offensive threat while averaging 3.14 significant strikes per minute and 3.82 takedowns per 15 minutes. Further, 36-year-old Weidman gains 1.01 submissions per 15 minutes and generally looks good from all angles when advancing. Again, the Weidman knock is his inability to absorb elite strikes. It remains to be seen if Akhmedov wields enough power to halt the former champ as this is the least competitive fight Weidman's had since early last decade.
Omari Akhmedov (20-4-1, -105)
While the onus resides on Weidman to prove he can still take a punch, matching onus resides on Omari Akhmedov to step in and put his favored opponent away. Currently, the 32-year-old Russian is creeping through the middleweight ranks after earning five-straight wins. Akhmedov used crisp punches and grinding takedowns to defeat 185 pound names Ian Heinisch, Zak Cummings and Tim Boetsch to earn featured opportunities this weekend.
The latest Dagestan riser averages 2.99 significant strikes landed per minute and 2.40 takedowns per 15 minutes. Well-balanced, Akhmedov owns seven paid wins by TKO, five by submission and eight by decision. It is worth noting Akhmedov hasn't won by TKO since 2013. A hard puncher, but not a knockout threat, it will be interesting to see what effect "Wolverine's" strikes have on Weidman.
The Prediction: Yes, Chris Weidman is bigger, longer and more skilled than Akhmedov. And while the younger fighter is quality, he isn't elite. Weidman's losses come against current or former championship-level opposition. That stated, it's hard to take any fighter that has been knocked out in five of his last six assignments -including by a lazy jab. Every athlete has an expiration date, and it seems Weidman found his last October. For that reason, I'll take the fresher Akhmedov to up his intensity and reign heavy leather against prone Weidman Saturday.
The Pick: Omari Akhmedov by decision