Cincinnati vs. CF Montreal Prediction, Preview, and Odds - 8/18/21
Cincinnati plays host to CF Montreal on Wednesday night from TQL Stadium in Ohio, in a crucial Eastern Conference matchup. These two teams have already faced off against each other twice on the season, splitting the two games. Cincinnati took the first meeting 2-1, while Montreal took the second meeting, 5-4 about a month ago. Both games were exciting affairs and Wednesday’s game expects to be no different as two teams come in with quite a bit riding on the line. Cincinnati sits right near the bottom of the Eastern Conference table and knows that they need to grab all three points at home if they want to make a jump back towards the playoff picture. For Montreal, they find themselves in seventh place currently, but far from safe with quite a few games to go down the stretch. Given how the season series is gone between the two teams, expect both to come out fast early as they try to make an impact and dictate the pace and style of the game, especially considering everything at stake as Montreal tries to sneak into the playoffs and for Cincinnati to try to put together a miraculous comeback to end the season.
Cincinnati Looks To Keep Streak Going
Cincinnati has seen some dark days in regards to MLS success over their first few years in the league but this year has been quite a bit more consistent. They’ve also put together a nice three-game streak without a loss, though they’ve all been draws. They sit 13th in the Eastern Conference, on 16 points in 17 games and a minus-12 goal differential. They know that they need to start converting some of those draws into wins if they want to make a run at the playoffs though and that starts on Wednesday night against a team that they already took three points from on the season. With both those games happening on the road, one in Florida and one in Canada, Cincinnati will have some confidence knowing that they’ll have the home crowd behind them in this one. The win back on May 22nd saw Cincinnati grab two goals in the final twenty minutes to steal all three points while July’s game was the opposite. In that one, Cincinnati held a 4-2 lead, only to see that evaporate in the blink of an eye and for Montreal to take all three points. Cincinnati will be looking for revenge on Wednesday, which is dangerous given the thin line that their season is standing on.
Cincinnati continues to battle the same injuries week after week and while they aren’t massive, it’s still a miss from a depth perspective for a team that doesn’t have much in that way of things. According to the league’s availability report, they’ll be without Calvin Harris (meniscus), Maikel van der Werff (sports hernia), and Zico Bailey (hip). Those three have only combined to appear in five games on the season, contributing no goals and no assists, as well as doing little in terms of defending, so shouldn’t impact the outlook of the staff on the game.
One of Cincinnati’s biggest issues on the season has been their lack of a front runner-up top to dominate games. Brenner and Luciano Acosta are even for the team lead, with four goals each, while Acosta also has three assists. One to keep an eye on is Ronald Matarrita, who just returned from injury and as he gets back into form, should be able to help form some attacking depth coming out of the back and build on the three assists he has himself. Geoff Cameron is now the engine of this team though, behind his two assists, but more importantly his experience. After spending years in Europe, he brings a sense of normalcy to a backline that has struggled over the last few years. Cameron missed the last game against Montreal and it showed, with Cincinnati allowing five goals.
Montreal Clinging To Life
CF Montreal has had an interesting go of it this season after spending the start of the year in Florida in a makeshift training camp, to moving back to their full-time facilities north of the border during the summer. The top seven teams make it to the MLS Cup Playoffs and right now Montreal sits right in seventh place. They have 26 points through 19 games and a plus-one goal differential, but only sit two points clear of Columbus, who is nipping on their heels. Going on the road to Cincinnati won’t be easy for Montreal, especially given the struggles they’ve had against them already this season and the fact that Cameron will be back in the lineup for Cincinnati as well. Taking them down 5-4 in the last meeting after a massive comeback should give them some confidence heading back on the road and they’ll need everything they have to even try to take a point out of Wednesday’s game. Another win against Cincinnati would at least see them remain two points ahead of Columbus regardless of other results and remain in the playoff picture for at least another set of games.
As opposed to Cincinnati, CF Montreal has quite a list of injuries. They’ll be without seven players in all likelihood when they take the field on Wednesday night. Ahmed Hamdi (undisclosed), Ballou Tabla (groin), Romell Quioto (hamstring), Lassi Lappalainen (groin), James Pantemis (health protocols), and Clement Diop (personal reasons), all remain out. Quioto might be the biggest miss on the offensive side without his two goals and three assists, while Lappalainen has added an assist as well. The injuries will mostly hurt their attacking depth, with no defenders out for Wednesday’s game, which might not be a massive deal against a Cincinnati team that times struggles to score.
Djordje Mihailovic and Mason Toye remain the two keys up top for Montreal. Both have national team experience and have formed s strong duo for a team that has struggled to score over the years. Toye leads the team with seven goals, while Mohailovic has added three goals and six assists. Add in three assists for Joaquin Torres and it’s evident that this team has talent. They will be lacking depth but it shouldn’t be an issue if the duo can make life tough early for Cincinnati’s backline.
Pick: Cincinnati (+160)
Cincinnati was hard-pressed to lose the last game to Montreal and Cameron’s absence from the lineup was a huge reason why. Adding him back into a backline that has been strong in his presence might make all the difference and really change the outlook of how Cincinnati and Montreal both view this game. Montreal has a little more of a punch up top, but Cincinnati has a knack for scoring timely goals and that won’t change at home. Add in that Montreal has traveled to go through and Cincinnati will be at home for the second straight game, and everything points towards Cincinnati finding their way towards all three points on Wednesday night.
Pick: Under
The last meetings between the two teams seem like more of an anomaly given some of the absences on both sides and before that, more than three goals hadn’t been scored in the previous four games between these two sides. The first meeting between them this season saw only three goals scored, two of those in the last twenty minutes, and expect a similar defensive effort from both squads on Wednesday night. Coming into the game, Cincinnati hasn’t seen more than three goals scored total in their last five games, while for Montreal, that’s the case in five of their last six games.
