Colorado Rapids vs. Austin FC, Prediction, Preview and Odds-4/24/21
Austin FC will look to pick up its first MLS victory in franchise history when it visits the Colorado Rapids on Saturday night at Dick’s Sporting Goods Park. Playing in its first game as an expansion franchise last Saturday, Austin put up a solid effort in a 2-0 road loss to LAFC as a massive +706 underdog. Colorado’s opening match at Dallas FC finished in a scoreless tie over the weekend, with the draw cashing in at +228 odds.
Austin puts up a fight in MLS debut
A road game against preseason MLS Cup betting favorite LAFC was not an easy first assignment for Austin, but the expansion club held its own for much of the afternoon in a 2-0 loss. The powerful LAFC offense couldn’t get on the board until the 61st minute on a long distance goal from Cody Baird, and Jose Cifuentes locked up the win in stoppage time on a rare defensive breakdown from Austin.
One notable stat was Austin managing 56% possession against an LAFC team that typically dominates the ball. Scoring chances were still difficult to come by, as only three of Austin’s 12 shots were on target.
Midfielder Alexander Ring was Austin’s biggest off-season acquisition in a trade with NYCFC, and it looks like he should continue being one of the best defensive midfielders in MLS after a terrific showing on Saturday. Forward Ceciilo Dominguez is Austin’s first designated player and will lead the offense after tallying three goals and two assists with Guarani in the Paraguayan League last season.
Tomas Pochettino should be another stalwart in the Austin midfield after spending five years in the top flight of Argentina, as he also helped spur the strong effort in the opener. No. 1 overall pick Daniel Pereira Gil started at midfield in last weekend’s game and should continue to get consistent playing time moving forward.
Defenseman Hector Jimenez (undisclosed) and forward Aaron Schoenfeld (knee surgery) will both be unavailable for Saturday’s game.
Colorado gets a point out of defensive struggle
The Rapids return nearly everyone from a roster that made the playoffs thanks to a prolific offense, but started 2021 with a scoreless draw at Dallas. Both teams had a number of decent chances despite the lack of goals, but Colorado struggled to finish and kept Dallas scoreless thanks to four saves from William Yarbrough and a goal-line clearance from defensive midfielder Jack Price in the sixth minute.
Colorado finished with 11 shots and six on target, with former Dallas forward Michael Barrios racking up five shots in his first game with the Rapids. Dallas had an advantage in possession at 55%, and Colorado was a little sloppy completing just 77% of its passes while committing 16 fouls.
That poor finishing wasn’t common for Colorado a year ago, with the Rapids averaging 1.77 goals per game to finish in the top 10 of MLS. Colorado’s defense had some trouble with 1.55 goals per game allowed and was overwhelmed in the first round of the playoffs by Minnesota United, so the strong performance on Saturday despite some injuries was a positive sign.
Barrios, who racked up 31 goals and 37 assists in six years with Dallas, created several good chances with 0.7 expected goals in the opener last weekend. US international Kellyn Acosta started out of position at left back due to injuries against Dallas and led the shutout with a strong game.
Right back Lalas Abubaker, one of Colorado’s best players, sat against Dallas after picking up an injury in the preseason and his status is uncertain. Starting left back Sam Vines is also out for an undisclosed period of time, hence the need to move Acosta out of the midfield last week.
Side: Austin FC +0.5 (+110)
Total: Under 3 (-110)
Last season saw expansion teams Nashville SC and Inter Miami CF both play well enough to make the postseason, and Austin looks poised to follow in their footsteps this year. Austin looked great from a tactical perspective in their maiden match and have players who fit that system well, which will challenge a Colorado team that certainly wasn’t firing on all cylinders last week.
As head coach Josh Wolff was an assistant to Gregg Berhalter in Columbus, it wasn’t a surprise to see Austin FC play a possession-heavy style, and having more of the ball against LAFC right off the bat was impressive. Austin will be able to slow down a free-flowing Colorado offense that likes to push the tempo, and the Rapids’ lack of finishing could be a cause for concern moving forward.
Offense is still uncertain for Austin, but given how the Rapids are dealing with two crucial injuries and were not a good defense with the same roster in 2020, they are unlikely to keep another clean sheet. Austin will get its first MLS point with at least a draw here, and have a great chance to win thanks to Wolff’s tactics.
This is a high total based on the way Austin looks like it is going to play, as the MLS newcomers are going to try and slow the game down and win low-scoring matches. Ring is among the best defensive midfielders in the MLS, and will be able to deal with the creative attack of the Rapids effectively, especially if Colorado is as sloppy with the ball as it was last Saturday.
The biggest moves Austin made before its first season were all in the midfield so the scoring might be slow to come for now, and Yarbrough will be tough to get past in the Colorado net. Expect a sluggish game from both offenses that takes a while for either to get on the board.
