Columbus Crew vs. D.C. United Prediction, Preview, and Odds - 8/4/21

Eastern Conference foes vying for playoff positioning will square off on Wednesday evening when D.C. United visits the Columbus Crew at Lower.com Field. D.C. United currently holds down eighth place in the East at 6-3-7 after a scoreless draw at FC Cincinnati over the weekend, with the tie hitting at +205 odds. Columbus will need to bounce back quickly after being blown out 4-1 at New York City FC last Friday as a big +515 underdog and is now in sixth place at 6-6-4.

The long-standing series between these MLS original members is all even at 32-17-32 after the Crew beat D.C. United 3-1 on May 8 in Columbus in the most recent meeting.

D.C. United settles for a road point after two players sent off

A win over a Cincinnati team that is near the bottom of the table would have been huge for D.C. United’s playoff hopes, but it could only manage a draw on a night where neither offense accomplished much. After his potential first career MLS goal was overturned for offsides just three minutes into the game, D.C. United midfielder Moses Nyeman was shown a straight red in the 52nd with teammate Joseph Mora also getting sent off in stoppage time, although Cincinnati still didn’t generate many dangerous chances against shorthanded opposition.

Cincinnati was in control for much of the game even before the red cards as it held 69% possession, with both teams recording three shots on goal. D.C. United goaltender Bill Hamid did make one terrific save on a point-blank attempt in the first half off the foot of Cincinnati’s Nick Hagglund.

The D.C. United offense has had a number of strong performances but is also inconsistent, bringing its season numbers to an average of 1.31 goals and 13 shots per match. Defense has been much more of a strength, as D.C. United is allowing just 1.13 goals and 9.06 shots per game while keeping six clean sheets, including two straight.

Ola Kamara has been the most productive player on the D.C. United offense by far with seven goals and one assist. Yamil Asad and Paul Arriola have each provided two goals and one assist apiece.

Arriola and defender Donovan Pines are both just returning from winning the Gold Cup with the United States, and almost certainly won’t play on Wednesday. Nyeman and Mora will both be suspended for their respective red cards. Defender Brendan Hines-Ike is out with a fractured hip, while midfielder Russell Canhouse has an ankle problem.

Crew’s hot streak ends in blowout fashion

After earning a result in nine of its previous 10 matches heading in to move into playoff position, Columbus will need to regroup after being thoroughly handled at Yankee Stadium on Friday. New York City was in total control throughout after scoring in the 14th minute before doubling the advantage in the 35th, and Columbus’ lone goal didn’t come until seven minutes into stoppage time in the second half on Pedro Santos’ penalty kick.

The Crew did have more possession with 56%, but it was all NYCFC otherwise as Columbus was outshot 24-9 overall. Only one attempt from the Crew went on target, and goaltender Eloy Room made five saves on a tough night for the defense.

While things have been much better recently, the Crew offense has been poor overall with an average of 1.06 goals and 10.43 shots per match. Columbus’ defense has picked up the slack by allowing exactly one goal and 14.18 shots per match while keeping six clean sheets, including two straight prior to last Friday’s game.

Lucas Zelarayan is having another terrific season to lead the Crew offense with five goals and one assist. Santos now has a goal to go along with his team-high three assists, while Gyasi Zardes has scored four times.

Zardes won’t be ready to play on Wednesday after going the distance in Sunday’s Gold Cup final. Midfielder Liam Fraser could be back in the lineup, as he’ll be a week removed from the Gold Cup semifinal with Canada. Midfielders Artur (hip) and Aidan Morris (knee) plus defenders Vito Wormgoor (thigh) and Milton Valenzuela (thigh) are listed on the Columbus injury report.

Side prediction: Columbus Crew -115

Total: Under 2 (+120)

There isn’t much to separate these two teams overall this season by record, but home-field advantage will be the main difference-maker as Columbus’ brand new stadium has been a difficult environment for visitors. The defending MLS Cup champion Crew are far more talented than they showed early in the season, and with several key players starting to round back into form after dealing with injuries, they can handle D.C. United.

Last Friday aside against a good NYCFC side, the Crew have been playing well for a few weeks and are yet to lose a game at home this season including posting a mark of 2-3-0 against a difficult schedule at Lower.com Field. Getting shutout in four of its first five matches hurt Columbus’ overall stats, but the Crew are averaging 1.45 goals per game since, and have several dangerous playmakers led by Zelarayan.

D.C. United has not been an inspiring offense this season outside of an outlier 7-1 win over Toronto, and losing Arriola’s playmaking is a crucial factor against an excellent Columbus defense. The Crew has been a strong team at home, and their superior depth will be too much for D.C. United.

These are two of the better scoring defenses in MLS, as both teams have put up consistently good performances on the backline and should play a low-scoring game here. Advanced metrics put D.C. United among the elite defensive squads in MLS, as it has allowed just 15.0 expected goals on the season and has not been scored upon in 240 minutes.

While the first meeting between these two resulted in four goals, the absences of Arriola and Zardes make a huge difference for both offenses. Back the defenses to turn in stronger performances this time, as both teams have tended to play low-scoring games.