Dallas Wings vs. Las Vegas Aces Prediction, Preview and Odds - 9/13/21

A pair of Western Conference teams that are looking to improve their standing in the playoff picture kick off the final week of the WNBA regular season with a clash in the Silver State. The Dallas Wings are on the road as they travel to face the Las Vegas Aces Monday night. Dallas slipped by New York 77-76 at home in their most recent contest Saturday. Las Vegas crushed Minnesota 102-81 at home in their most recent contest Wednesday night. The Aces have won the last seven meetings in the series, including an 85-78 home win on June 13 and a 95-79 road triumph on July 11 in the two meetings this season.

Dallas Wings Trying to Climb Playoff Ladder

Dallas had dropped two straight and three of their previous four before coming up with a win over the Liberty at home Saturday. The win improved the Wings to 13-17 on the season and they are seventh in the WNBA standings, two games up on the ninth-place Liberty with two to play. They have officially clinched a playoff berth. Against New York, Dallas led by five after the opening quarter, trailed by one at the half and were down 10 after three quarters. The Wings trailed 70-57 with 9:19 to play in the game but outscored New York 20-6 the rest of the way to earn the win. Allisha Gray blocked a potential game-winning attempt by the Liberty’s Sabrina Ionescu at the buzzer to give the Wings a victory. Dallas shot 36.1% from the field, including 10 of 27 from three-point range, and hit 15 of 19 at the free throw line in the contest. Marina Mabrey led the Wings with 21 points off the bench in the win.

The Wings come into this one sixth in the league in scoring with 81.1 points per game this season. Dallas is third in rebounding (36.4 boards per contest) but rank 10th in the league in assists with 17.3 per game. The Wings are struggling defensively, ranking 8th by allowing 81.4 points per contest. Arike Ogunbowale (18.5 points, 3.1 rebounds, 3.3 assists) is one of five players scoring in double figures for the Wings this season. Allisha Gray (11.8 points), Marina Mabrey (13.1 points, 3.9 rebounds, 2.7 assists), Isabelle Harrison (10.8 points, six rebounds) and Kayla Thornton (7.5 points, 5.7 rebounds) are all capable scoring options as well. Charli Collier, Tyasha Harris, Chelsea Dungee, Awak Kuier, Moriah Jefferson, Satou Sabally (12.4 points, 6.1 boards), Dana Evans and Bella Alarie all can be looked to for minutes for coach Vickie Johnson. The Wings are eighth in the league in field goal percentage as they hit 41.7% as a team. Dallas is fourth in three-pointers per game (8.2) and stand fourth in the league in three-point shooting as they hit 35.4% from long range. The Wings are fourth in free throw shooting as they convert 82.6% of their chances at the stripe. Harrison is in the league’s health and safety protocols after testing positive for COVID-19.

Las Vegas Aces Trying to Lock In Double Bye

Las Vegas put the boots to a Minnesota team that was on fire in their last game for their fourth win in the last five games. The Aces improved to 21-8 on the season and are second in the WNBA standings, 2.5 games behind the Sun for the top spot and 1.5 games ahead of third-place Seattle as they attempt to lock down one of the two double byes in the WNBA playoffs. Against Minnesota, Las Vegas trailed by six midway through the opening quarter before tying the game at the end of one. The Aces outscored the Lynx 28-14 in the second quarter to take a 14-point halftime edge and didn’t let Minnesota closer than nine the rest of the way. Las Vegas shot 55.1% from the field, including four of 10 from three-point range, and committed only five turnovers in the game. Jackie Young scored a career-high 29 points to lead the Aces in the victory.

The Aces come into this contest at the top of the pack in scoring offense, ranking first with 89.1 points per game. Las Vegas is 1st in the league in rebounding (38.8 boards a game) and stand third in the league in assists by handing out 21 dimes per contest. The Aces have been average on the defensive end of the floor as they are 6th in the league in scoring defense by allowing 80.6 points a game. A’ja Wilson leads the Aces with 18.7 points, 9.3 rebounds and 3.1 assists per game. Liz Cambage (14.7 points, 8.4 rebounds, 1.7 blocks), Jackie Young (12.3 points, four rebounds) and Kelsey Plum (13.6 points) are all solid secondary options on the offensive end. Coach Bill Laimbeer also can call on Chelsea Gray (11.3 points, 5.9 assists), Dearica Hamby (11.8 points, 6.9 boards), Riquna Williams (9.9 points), Ji-Su Park, Kiah Stokes and Destiny Slocum to contribute on both ends of the floor. Las Vegas is first in the league in field goal percentage as they shoot 46.8% from the field as a team this season. The Aces are 11th in the league in threes per game (4.8) and second in three-point shooting at 37% on the year. Las Vegas is currently fifth in free throw shooting at 81.7% on the season. Cambage (COVID-19) is questionable here after testing positive despite being fully vaccinated.

Pick: Las Vegas Aces

Dallas may have come up with a win over the Liberty at home with a furious fourth quarter rally but this one is going to be much tougher sledding. The Wings are 7-8 on the road this season but they have to travel to face an Aces team that is 12-3 at home on the year. Las Vegas owns a +12.1 ppg scoring margin on their home floor and they know a win will pretty much lock up a double-bye to the semifinals in the WNBA playoffs. The Aces could have Cambage back for this contest but as we saw against Minnesota, they are more than capable of putting up big point totals even when one or two stars are missing. Las Vegas gets the win here to maintain their momentum.

Total: Over

For all their weak defensive metrics and good offensive ones, the Wings have actually been pretty reliable as an under pick this season. Dallas has seen the under go 19-10-1 in their games this season. They now have to face a Las Vegas team that comes in with the over hitting in 18 of their 29 contests. Dallas has turned in eight unders in the last nine games, including five straight contests that have fallen short of the mark. Meanwhile, Las Vegas has gone over the total in each of their last three games. In the last nine meetings, the over is 5-3-1 when these teams take the floor. We’ve seen 163 and 174 points in the first two matchups this season. Look for this one to end up over the total as the Aces are explosive at home.

Author Profile
Chris King

Chris King has been immersed in the world of professional and collegiate sports for more than three decades. Whether it's playing pickup games or being involved in organized sports to being a fan, he's checked all the boxes. From the NFL to arena football, the NHL to the KHL, the NBA to the WNBA to college hoops, and even MLB to the KBO. If it's out there, he's covered it and bet on it as well, as Chris has been an expert bettor in his career. Before joining Winners and Whiners back in 2015, his work appeared around the internet and in print. He's written books for Ruckus Books about college basketball, the NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL, golf, and the World Cup. If you're looking for the inside track on hitting a winner, do yourself a favor and read what Chris has to say.