DC United vs. NY Red Bulls Prediction, Preview, and Odds - 10/27/21

Eastern Conference rivals will clash on Wednesday night when the New York Red Bulls visit D.C. United at Audi Field. New York enters just above the playoff cut line in sixth place at 12-7-11 after picking up a big 2-1 road win over the Columbus Crew on Saturday to hit as a +185 underdog. D.C. United will need to bounce back quickly after a 6-0 blowout loss at NYCFC over the weekend as a +316 underdog, as it is now in ninth place in the East at 12-5-14.

This is the third edition of the Atlantic Cup this season, as D.C. United won 1-0 at home in late July before a 1-1 draw at Red Bull Arena last month. D.C. United leads the long-standing rivalry 42-21-33.

Red Bulls grab playoff spot behind third straight win

After a disappointing start to the season, the Red Bulls are in strong position to make their 12th straight postseason appearance thanks to an eight-match unbeaten streak continued in a 2-1 at Columbus over the weekend. Cristian Casseres Jr. opened the scoring just seven minutes in only for Columbus to equalize shortly after. The Red Bulls still weren’t deterred even after missing a penalty in the 50th, and eventually got the game-winner in the 87th on Sean Nealis’ strike from the center of the box.

New York dominated the total shot attempts with a 17-6 advantage while getting five of those on target, although Columbus did have slightly more possession at 52%. Patryk Klimala was credited with the assist on the game-winning goal as his header set Nealis up from short range, while Carlos Miguel Coronel was rarely pressed into action with one savfe all night.

"Obviously, we have a young team, and everyone has had to step up in their own way," Nealis said to New York’s webiste. "I think my performance has only grown under Gerhard [Struber] and the coaching staff, so I’m grateful for them. Over the last three years, I have grown tremendously here at New York Red Bulls and I’m thankful to be here and hopefully we can continue this streak and continue this run into the playoffs."

The Red Bulls offense has picked things up enough recently but still has modest numbers for the year with 1.23 goals and 14.26 shots per game. New York’s defense has been terrific throughout the year and particularly of late, allowing 1.03 goals and 9.56 shots per contest overall while keeping 11 clean sheets.

Klimala has been New York’s best outfield player this season with eight goals and six assists. Fabio has matched him atop the team leaderboard with six assists in addition to five goals, while Casseres Jr. now has six goals and two helpers on the season.

The Red Bulls have been without star defender Aaron Long for most of the season after he suffered an Achilles injury back in May. Forward Omir Fernandez, who has appeared in 21 games this season, was out last weekend with a hamstring injury and his status is unknown for Wednesday.

D.C. United suffers worst defeat in franchise history

For the first time in its 25-year history, D.C. United lost a game by six goals in the beatdown at NYCFC on Saturday night and is now two points out of a playoff spot with three matches left to play. It was a blowout from the start as NYCFC was up 1-0 just one minute into the game and managed two more goals before the quarter-hour mark, leaving D.C. United with no chance at a comeback.

NYCFC dominated from every facet, putting 15 attempts on target to D.C. United’s three while holding 66% possession. Bill Hamid finished with nine stops in net, with nobody on the D.C. United offense doing much of note.

“This doesn’t define us,” midfielder Felipe Martins said to The Washington Post. “We know that was a bad night for us, but there’s no time to cry.”

That was an uncharacteristic performance from a D.C. United offense that has been excellent all season with an average of 1.65 goals and 13.38 shots per game. D.C. United’s defensive numbers are at the opposite ends of the leaderboard with the team allowing 1.61 goals and 10.90 shots per game while keeping eight clean sheets.

Ola Kamara leads the MLS in goals with 17 while adding four assists to lead the prolific D.C. United offense. Julian Gressel has a team-high seven assists while scoring twice, while Nigel Robertha has four goals despite starting just seven matches.

D.C. United is dealing with significant absences, as midfielder Paul Arriola suffered a groin injury with the national team two weeks ago and remains out after putting up five goals and two assists earlier in the season. Forward Yordy Reyna, next up on the D.C. United leaderboard with four goals, is out with a quad injury. Defender Brendan Hines-Ike (hip) and striker Edison Flores (calf) are also out.

Side prediction: New York Red Bulls +230

Total: Under 2.5 (-122)

While these teams have similar overall records, they are heading in opposite directions down the stretch as D.C. United has just one point in its last four games while the Red Bulls are unbeaten in four straight. This won’t be an east match on the road, but New York is worth a bet at such plus odds as it shouldn’t be this big of an underdog with the defense in such elite form.

While D.C. United has been able to find some success this season thanks to a strong offense, yet it has netted just three goals in the last four games as the injuries to two of its more prolific scorers in Arriola and Reyna has led to some problems. That puts too much pressure on Kamara to carry everything, which will be easy for a defense like the Red Bulls to handle, as they now lead MLS with 1.23 expected goals per game and don’t suffer any decline in quality when playing on the road.

Consistent offense for the Red Bulls hasn’t always been there, but they have scored enough lately to back the league’s best defense and have strong advanced metrics across the board including 1.70 expected goals per road game to rank third in MLS. Keep betting the Red Bulls during this hot streak as the defense will keep them in every game, and D.C. United shouldn’t be this big of a favorite given its recent struggles.

Even the scoring numbers might not indicate it, D.C. United has posted top 10 defensive metrics with 1.37 expected goals allowed per game while being particularly stingy at home. New York’s offense creates good chances but finishing has been an issue, and even during this current hot streak has only netted multiple goals just one time in the last seven matches.

It’s hard to take an over in a Red Bulls game right now as they have allowed a total of three goals during the eight-match unbeaten run behind both great backline play and strong goaltending when opponents do get a rare chance. Both meetings between these teams have gone under the betting total this season, and the combination of New York’s red hot defense and D.C. United’s injuries means this one is even more likely to be low-scoring.