Derek Lewis vs. Aleksey Oleynik Prediction and Odds, UFC Vegas 6 Main Card
Heavyweight contenders Derek Lewis and Aleksey Oleinik meet for 25 billed minutes Saturday at UFC Vegas 6 from the Apex Center in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Derek Lewis (23-7-1 NC, -235)
Derek Lewis enters this high profile main event at comfortable -235 odds. Lewis owns consecutive wins after failed missions vs. Junior Dos Santos and then heavyweight champion Daniel Cormier. The 35-year-old, 19 fight UFC veteran earned his 2018 title shot by defeating rugged opponents Alexander Volkov, Francis N'Gannou and Marcin Tybura. Lewis proved top-shelf viability by scoring signature victory over current no. 2 ranked heavyweight N'Gannou. Standing 6'3 with a 79.0' reach, Lewis enjoys banging on the feet and owns 18 paid TKO's -including thrilling stoppages of Travis Browne, Gabe Gonzaga, Tybura and Volkov.
A kickboxer with strong boxing tendencies, Lewis averages 2.53 significant strikes landed per minute but gains just 0.48 takedowns per 15 minutes.The major hole in Lewis' game is his lack of grappling experience. "The Black Beast" owns one career submission through 31 starts and is clearly overshadowed by Oleynik's mat credentials. In this textbook 'striker vs. grappler' matchup, Lewis remains in constant danger, especially late, of being submitted by his jui jitsu-savant opponent. However, 265 lb Lewis can just as easily impose his considerable size edge and punching power to deal Oleinik an eighth career TKO.
Alexey Oleinik (59-13-1, +200)
At 43-years-old, and with 46 professional submissions, Aleksey Oleinik can end a fight from any angle at a moment's notice. Though, chain wrestling and looping overhands pushed Oleinik to recent split decision victory vs. returning former world heavyweight champion Fabricio Werdum. Oleinik has won two consecutive fights since being TKO'd by heavy-hitters Walt Harris and Alistair Overeem. The Ukraine native fighting out of Moscow, Russia turned pro in 1997 and has compiled an 8-5 UFC record. Oleinik lands 3.72 significant strikes per minute while averaging 2.42 takedowns per 15 minutes. However, with a staggering 2.21 submissions per 15 minutes, Oleinik's dangerous reputation precedes him.
The Prediciton: At 35, Derek Lewis appears a step behind his best version from 2018 when he defeated N'Gannou. Conversely, even past 40, Oleinik remains capable of submitting any heavyweight combatant if grappling occurs. The rub here is Oleinik hasn't beaten an opponent of Lewis' caliber, nor has he consistently faced elite competition. While there's a strong chance the 43-year-old gains a takedown and submission through five rounds this weekend, the more likely outcome is a Derek Lewis TKO.
Oleinik is tempting at +200, and has top value at that price, but Lewis is a competitive notch above his latest main event dance partner.
The Pick: Derek Lewis by TKO
