FC Cincinnati vs. Chicago Fire Prediction, Preview, and Odds - 10/20/21

FC Cincinnati will hope to break a lengthy losing streak when it hosts the Chicago Fire on Wednesday night at TQL Stadium. Chicago is currently in 12th place in the Eastern Conference at 7-7-16 after battling the New England Revolution to a 2-2 road draw on Saturday, with the tie hitting at huge +649 odds. Cincinnati has lost seven straight matches including a 1-0 home defeat to Orlando City on Saturday as a +248 underdog, and has the worst record in MLS overall at 4-8-17.

These teams met back in late June, with Cincinnati picking up a 1-0 road win. Cincinnati now holds a 2-2-1 advantage over the Fire since joining MLS in 2019.

Fire turn in impressive performance at first-place New England

Chicago has struggled overall this season while heading for a fourth straight playoff miss, but has played better down the stretch and gave the best team in MLS all it could handle on the road last weekend. After a scoreless first half, New England found the opener just two minutes into the second only for the Fire to equalize on Alvaro Meran’s goal just moments later, and Chicago tied the score again at 2-2 just before stoppage time on Ignacio Aliseda’s strike.

The Revolution had the better of the play with an 8-5 advantage in shots on target while holding 60% possession. Jhon Espinoza and Brian Gutierrez were each credited with an assist on the night, while 17-year-old goaltender Gabriel Slonina had a terrific game with six saves against one of the best offenses in MLS.

“I wanted them to play with confidence. We had a very good game planned that they executed. I think the beginning of the game was a little bit slow on our part, and I think we grew into the game and we started taking control,” interim manager Frank Klopas said to Chicago’s official website. “But in the end, for me, the important thing is that the team showed a lot of character tonight. Great mentality, great attitude, great belief by everyone. The work rate was there.”

Chicago’s offense has played better of late but still has bad numbers for the season overall with an average of 1.03 goals and 13.56 shots per match. The defense has only been marginally better for the Fire at 1.60 goals and 13.46 shots allowed per game while keeping seven clean sheets this season.

Robert Beric is Chicago’s top currently healthy player with five goals and two assists on the season. Meran has dished out a team-high six assists while scoring two goals, and Aliseda is also having a nice season with four goals and one assist.

Luka Stojanovic, who leads the Fire with seven goals this season, has been limited to a total of 16 minutes combined over the last four matches with an ankle injury and it’s unclear if he will be ready for Wednesday’s game. Defender Boris Sekulic, who is having a nice season with two goals and four assists, remains out with a back injury. Carlos Teran is also missing from the Chicago backline due to a thigh injury, while goaltender Kenneth Kronholm has missed the entire season recovering from a torn ACL after starting 25 games the previous two years.

Cincinnati hopes to end seven-game losing streak

It’s been a rough go for Cincinnati since joining MLS in 2019, as it is headed for a third straight last-place finish and has won just one of its last 20 matches after dropping a 1-0 decision at Orlando City on Saturday. The game’s lone goal came just 13 minutes in, as Cincinnati put some good pressure on in the second half but could never find the back of the net while also having a Brenner goal called back for offside.

Orlando doubled up Cincinnati in total shot attempts 18-9, although the hosts did have a slight edge in possession at 53%. Przemysław Tytoń kept Cincinnati in the match by making four saves, but the offense just couldn’t generate enough dangerous chances.

“The boys, everyday they come into work. They’re in a really tough situation, going through a coaching change, having a new staff come in and try to implement some ideas to get their minds back to where they need to be in terms of their focus; it's a tough task. They’re trying everyday, they’re coming out on the pitch and putting the work in,” interim head coach Tyrone Marshall told Cincinnati’s official website.

Cincinnati has struggled on both sides of the ball, averaging exactly one goal on 11.93 shots per game. The defense has allowed opponents to rack up 1.90 goals and 15.44 shots per game while keeping six clean sheets for the season.

Brenner is Cincinnati’s top player for the season with seven goals and one assist on the season. Luciano Acosta is also having a strong season with six goals and a team-high seven assists, while Alvaro Barreal has three goals and three assists.

Defender Maikel van der Werff is the only Cincinnati player on the injury report as he continues to recover from a sports hernia.

Side prediction: Chicago Fire +170

Total: Under 2.5 (+114)

While it hasn’t been worth betting on the Fire too often this season, they have played well over their last four matches and are getting undervalued against the worst team in MLS. It’s hard not to fade Cincinnati at this point as it continues to struggle on both sides of the ball, and some emerging young players will lead the Fire to a win here.

The key to Chicago’s recent surge has been the emergence of Slonina, who looks like an emerging star at the age of 17 with two clean sheets in his last four matches while also turning in an impressive performance last weekend against New England’s talented attack to ensure a draw. That good form should continue on Wednesday against a limited Cincinnati attack, and the Fire should do some damage on the other end against a defense that is last in MLS by a healthy amount with 1.81 expected goals allowed per game.

Cincinnati’s numbers don’t get much better in home games, leading to a miserable 1-5-8 record at TQL Stadium this season. The Fire enter the last stretch of the season in their best form, and are worth a bet against a Cincinnati team that has lost seven straight matches.

While the defense has been the main source of its problems, Cincinnati also ranks near the bottom of the MLS leaderboard with 1.25 expected goals per game and has been shut out a whopping 12 times this season. The Fire have a great shot at a clean sheet here as the strong goalkeeping of Slonina helps

cover up for some issues on the defensive end, and Cincinnati just doesn’t have the scoring depth to challenge anyone right now.

Even though Cincinnati’s defense has struggled, Chicago’s offensive numbers on the road are poor while the injuries to Stojanovic and Sekulic are a huge factor. These offenses both rank in the bottom four in the league in scoring, and can’t be trusted to finish enough chances for the over to hit.