FC Dallas vs. FC Austin Prediction, Preview, and Odds - 10/30/21

In-state rivals will square off on Saturday night when Austin FC visits FC Dallas at Toyota Stadium in Western Conference action. Austin picked up a 2-1 home victory over the Houston Dynamo last weekend to cash in as a +127 underdog, but is still in last place in the West at 8-4-19. Dallas is one spot ahead in 12th at 6-11-5 after suffering a 2-1 home loss to Real Salt Lake on Wednesday night as a +114 underdog.

This is the third meeting of the season between these Texas foes, as Dallas won the first-ever matchup 2-0 at home on August 7 before picking up a 5-3 victory three weeks later in Austin.

Austin hopes to climb out of last place as inaugural season winds down

It’s been a tough first year for expansion Austin, but the new MLS side has at least been able to pick up a couple wins over in-state foe Houston including a 2-1 victory at Q2 Stadium last Sunday. It was a bizarre start to the match, as Austin opened the scoring on what was ruled an own goal by Houston keeper Marko Maric off a Cecilio Dominguez penalty kick, and Sebastian Driussi would double the lead just before the halftime whistle. That would hold up despite a Julio Cascante own goal in stoppage time, as the Dynamo didn’t have much going offensively.

While the Dynamo had 52% possession, Austin finished with a 19-15 advantage in total shots with eight of those going on target. Alexander Ring was credited with an assist with the Driussi goal, while Brad Stuver made five saves to deal with any pressure Houston generated.

“The defending today was excellent, it was collective. A collective willingness and a collective determination is what I talk about with these guys, and it was on display,” head coach Josh Wolff said via Austin’s website. “We have a good group. There’s a lot to work with and there’s a lot to be proud of. We’ve got a big game against Dallas next week on the road and our guys will be fully focused.”

It’s been a struggle to score this inaugural season, with Austin averaging exactly one goal on 13.58 shots per game so far. Austin’s defense has been strong at times yet inconsistent overall, allowing 1.61 goals and 15.06 shots per match while keeping five clean sheets.

Dominguez is the best player for Austin so far with seven goals and three assists to lead the Austin attack. Diego Fagundez is right behind with six goals and three assists, while Ring has added four goals and two helpers while playing well as the holding midfielder.

Injuries have been a big part of the story for Austin, with two key strikers in Danny Hoesen (hip) and Aaron Schoenfield (knee) plus starting left back Ben Sweat (knee) and midfielder Ulises Segura (knee) all being lost for the season early on. Veteran defender Matt Besler has also been sidelined for several weeks by a concussion and doesn’t expect to play this weekend.

Dallas winless in last 10 matches after losing heartbreaker at home

With an offseason full of questions ahead, Dallas is at least trying to avoid a last-place finish, and squandered an opportunity to pick up all three points at home against Real Salt Lake on Wednesday by blowing a lead in the last 10 minutes. Matt Hedges opened the scoring with a goal in the 20th minute to give Dallas a lead for most of the night as Real Salt Lake only had one shot on goal before halftime, but the visitors finally equalized in the 80th before scoring the winner just before stoppage time to steal the victory.

Dallas racked up 23 total shot attempts to Real Salt Lake’s 15, yet both teams only managed six on target apiece while the visitors held 55% possession. Justin Che provided the assist on Dallas’ lone goal on the night, while Jesus Ferreira and substitute Ricardo Pepi were each denied late on some excellent goalkeeping by Real Salt Lake’s Daniel Ochoa.

“Everybody’s just disappointed. We gave it away,” said Hedges to the Dallas Morning News. “It feels like we kind of stopped trying to play, and teams are going to punish you when you try to sit back, and that’s what has been happening to us. We need to figure out why that’s happening and change it.”

There have been a few bright spots offensively even in a lost year for Dallas, which is averaging 1.38 goals and 13.28 shots per match. Dallas’ defense has struggled throughout the season, allowing 1.69 goals and 13.65 shots per game while keeping for clean sheets.

Pepi, who is likely headed for Europe this offseason, is one of MLS’ brightest stars at 18 years old with 13 goals and two assists. Ferreira has dished out a team-high seven assists while also scoring seven times, with Jader Obrian also turning in a strong year at eight goals and two assists.

Starting midfielder Facundo Quignon has been sidelined for the last month by a thigh injury but was listed as questionable on Wednesday and could play this weekend. Defender John Nelson (back) and striker Beni Rezdic (ankle) are out. Goaltender Phelipe Megiolaro, who has made 10 starts this season, is dealing with a thigh injury and likely won’t play.

Side prediction: FC Dallas -110

Total: Over 3 (-115)

Neither team is exactly playing well at the moment, but it’s impossible to trust Austin on the road where it has a 2-2-11 record including a seven-game losing streak. For all its other issues, Dallas has far more high-end attacking depth to go at the slumping Austin defense, and the visitors don’t have the firepower to keep up.

Scoring has been an issue throughout the season for Austin after it suffered some key injuries early on, and the expansion side has managed just 0.96 expected goals per game to rank second-worst in MLS this year. While the defense has stepped up at home behind a raucous crowd to pick up some victories over better opponents, Austin is allowing far too many goals on the road as well and hasn’t been able to handle this Dallas attack in two previous meetings, conceding seven times.

Pepi figures to be at full strength after getting most of Wednesday’s match off, and he makes for a dangerous trip with Obrian and Ferreira up front, giving Dallas a significant talent advantage over an injury-riddled expansion side. Dallas has at least been passable at Toyota Stadium with a 4-7-5 record and will have too much for an Austin team that is worth fading on the road.

This is not a good Dallas defense no matter what venue it is playing at, as it has allowed 1.69 expected goals per game to rank fourth-worst in MLS. Dallas’ backline could have some tired legs after defending so hard against Real Salt Lake in the second half just three days ago, giving a fresher Austin side a great chance to avoid the shutout at the very least despite its problems offensively.

The overall metrics are decent for Austin’s defense, but it seems to be getting worse as the season goes on and has conceded 10 times overall during the last three road games. Neither defense is trustworthy

enough right now, and this will be another high-scoring game between these two after they met in a 5-3 shootout earlier in the year.