FC Dallas vs. Minnesota United Prediction, Preview, and Odds - 10/2/21

Western Conference foes will square off on Saturday night when Minnesota United visits FC Dallas at Toyota Stadium. Minnesota currently holds down a playoff spot in seventh place in the West at 10-7-9 after losing 3-1 at D.C. United on Wednesday as a huge +461 underdog. Dallas is struggling in 11th place at 6-9-13 after dropping a Wednesday home game against Sporting Kansas City 3-1 as a +116 underdog.

This is the third meeting between these clubs in 2021 after Minnesota won 1-0 at home in mid-May followed by a 1-1 draw in Dallas a month later. The all-time series is knotted up at 5-1-5.

Inconsistent Minnesota can’t keep up with D.C. United

An up-and-down second half of the season has kept Minnesota in the middle of the table, and it dropped another road game with a poor performance in the second half on Wednesday night at D.C. United. After the hosts opened the scoring with a penalty, Bakaye Dibassy headed home the equalizer in the 40th minute, only for D.C. United to get a dagger in stoppage time of the first half before dominating the second half.

Minnesota’s offense struggled to generate anything with just six total attempts and only two on target. Franco Fragapane was credited with the assist as his free kick set up Minnesota’s lone goal, while Tyler Miller came up with two saves.

“I thought we were really passive in the first half, in terms of getting tight to people and making it difficult. As I say, when you’re not good with it, and you don’t compete without it enough, then you’re going to struggle to win games. And, I don’t think we deserved anything from the game and that’s exactly what we got,” manager Adrian Heath said to Minnesota’s official website.

The offense has struggled to put the ball in the net with an average of 1.15 goals and 14.24 shots per match. Minnesota’s strength has been a defense that is allowing 1.15 goals and 11.57 shots per game while keeping nine clean sheets for the season.

Robin Lod is Minnesota’s top attacker with seven goals and four assists on the season despite playing in just 16 matches. Fragapane has dished out a team-high seven assists while scoring twice, with Emanuel Reynoso also turning in a nice season with four goals plus three assists.

Midfielder Hassani Dotson, who has made 20 starts this season, is expected to sit out Saturday’s match with a knee injury. Striker Justin McMaster has been sidelined by a thigh injury for the last month, while veteran midfielder Jan Gregus remains out with a foot injury after starting nine matches earlier in the year.

Dallas’ losing streak reaches three in ugly showing at home

Any hope of making a late-season playoff push is quickly slipping away for Dallas, as it was handled comfortably by Kansas City at home on Wednesday night to push its winless streak to six matches. Kansas City took control with the opening goal in the 13th minute and hopes of a Dallas comeback were hurt just after halftime as Bryan Acosta got sent off for a red card with the visitors converting the subsequent penalty, although star Ricardo Pepi at least prevented the shutout with a strike in the 68th.

Dallas was doubled up 12-6 by Kansas City in total shot attempts, with the hosts getting just two of those efforts on target. Ryan Hollingshead was credited with an assist to set up Pepi’s breakaway goal, while Jimmy Maurer made four saves in net.

“The idea was to use more of a 3-5-2 rather than a 5-3-2 and kind of push them and be on the front foot from the start. We let them get a little too confident early in the game,” Hollingshead said to The Dallas Morning News. “Then, just allowed them too much time and space and they had a pretty wondrous goal.”

Dallas’ offense has been solid if unspectacular with an average of 1.39 goals and 13.62 shots per match. The defense has been a different story with opponents putting up 1.68 goals and 14.25 shots per game, with Dallas keeping just three clean sheets all season.

Pepi is one of MLS’ brightest stars at the age of 18 with 13 goals and two assists on the season to pace the Dallas offense. Jesus Ferreira is also having a huge season with six goals and a team-high six assists, while Jadair Obrian has scored eight times.

Defender John Nelson remains sidelined by a back injury after appearing in 10 matches with six starts earlier in the season. Striker Beni Redzic has not played this season due to an ankle problem.

Side prediction: Minnesota United +0.5 (-130)

Total: Over 3 (+108)

Both of these teams certainly have flaws at the moment, but Minnesota has been better all season and will be able to do enough damage against the shaky Dallas defense to get a much-needed result here. Dallas is currently on a 1-3-6 stretch while struggling on its home field, and things don’t appear to have gotten better since making a coaching chance last week.

By just about any statistic, Dallas is a bottom five defense in MLS as it has averaged 1.66 expected goals allowed per match with both the backline and the goaltenders struggling. That puts a lot of pressure on the offense to be perfect with most of the burden falling on the 18-year-old Pepi, and Dallas has slowed down its scoring rate with one or fewer goals in five of the 10 games during the current slide.

Minnesota is a poor finishing team but generates shots at one of the highest clips in the league, and this could be the match where a few of those finally find the back of the net given Dallas’ defensive issues. While betting on a Minnesota outright victory might be too much as it isn’t a great road team, these are valuable odds for the win or draw.

These are teams that are going to generate a lot of scoring chances, and they will produce more goals than in the first two meetings as some key stars have gotten healthy since. All the advanced metrics point to Minnesota’s offense breaking out soon, as it ranks in the top 10 with 1.57 expected goals per game and has been particularly good with Lod and Reynoso both healthy in the lineup, which they expect to be on Saturday.

Pepi seems capable of scoring against any defense right now, and Dallas has a good amount of depth with Obrian, Ferreria and Hollinghead all contributing plenty. As Minnesota’s defense drops to roughly an average unit on the road, Dallas won’t get blanked here and will add enough for this to go over.