FC Dallas vs. Real Salt Lake Prediction, Preview and Odds - 10/27/21

Real Salt Lake will look to keep its playoff hopes alive when it visits FC Dallas on Wednesday night at Toyota Stadium. Following a 1-0 road loss to the Chicago Fire last Saturday as a +256 underdog, Real Salt Lake is below the Western Conference postseason cut line in eighth place at 12-6-12 for the season. Dallas currently holds 12th place in the West at 6-11-14 after battling to a 2-2 draw road draw against the LA Galaxy over the weekend, with the tie hitting at +463 odds.

This is the third meeting of the season between these teams after a 2-2 draw at Dallas in late May followed by Real Salt Lake picking up a 3-2 home win in early September. Dallas holds a 21-11-13 lead over Real Salt Lake all-time.

Real Salt Lake suffers crushing blow for playoff hopes

After taking an ugly 1-0 loss to a bad Chicago team over the weekend at Soldier Field, Real Salt Lake is now two points out of a postseason spot with four matches left to play. The lone goal of the night came just before the halftime whistle, and while Real Salt Lake finally created some good chances in the final 25 minutes of the game, none ended up in the back of the net.

Chicago racked up 25 shots to Real Salt Lake’s 16. although the visitors did have 53% possession after picking up steam in the second half. Makiel Chang had Real Salt Lake’s best chance of the game on a 64th minute header only to be denied on a terrific save, while David Ochoa played well in net with nine saves.

“In the second half the guys came out and really showed their true selves by threatening the goal, putting balls into dangerous areas and pressing and winning the ball higher up the field. That’s the team we need to be if we want a chance to qualify for the playoffs,” interim head coach Pablo Mastroeni told Real Salt Lake’s official website.

That was a rare shutout for a Real Salt Lake offense that has been strong overall this season with an average of 1.60 goals and 12.90 shots per match this season. Real Salt Lake’s defense has often struggled, allowing 1.53 goals and 14.36 shots per match while keeping six clean sheets for the year.

Damir Kreilach has been one of the best players in all of MLS this season with 14 goals and seven assists to pace the potent Real Salt Lake offense. Defender Aaron Herrera has recorded a team-high nine assists, while Rubio Rubin is enjoying a strong season with eight goals and five assists.

There aren’t too many injury concerns for Real Salt Lake, although starting defender Marcelo Silva has been sidelined for a month for an undisclosed ailment. Reserve defender Zack Farnsworth has also been on the injury report for an undisclosed reason, as he is yet to make his MLS debut.

Dallas earns a point on the road, stays out of last place

It has been a struggle for a Dallas team that has already been eliminated from the playoffs and faces plenty of questions in the upcoming offseason, but it least turned in a strong effort to earn a road draw with the LA Galaxy last weekend. It was Dallas on the front foot in the first half as Jesus Ferreira opened the scoring in the 30th before Franco Jara doubled the lead 11 minutes later, yet LA Galaxy would get some momentum midway through the second on a converted penalty before finding the equalizer in the 83rd to deny the visitors all three points.

The shots finished even at 12 apiece, with Dallas getting eight of those on target, while LA Galaxy held 59% possession. Jara was credited with the assist on Dallas’ first goal of the night, while Jimmy Maurer made four saves including a huge stop that preserved the lead at the time in the 68th minute.

“We were content with the first half,” Ferreira told The Dallas Morning News. “We had a lot of positive things. And that’s one of the things that we have to work on, staying focused throughout the whole game, 90-plus minutes. In this game, we were focused 85 minutes. Those five extra minutes that we weren’t, that’s when they took advantage and scored on us.”

There’s been a few bright spots for the Dallas offense, which is averaging 1.39 goals and 12.96 shots per game overall this season. The Dallas defense has struggled to contain opponents all year, allowing 1.68 goals and 13.61 shots per match while keeping just four clean sheets.

Rising star Ricardo Pepi is the leader of the Dallas offense at just 18 years old with 13 goals and two assists despite missing a few matches on national team duty. Ferreira has dished out a team-high seven assists while now scoring seven times, with Jadar Obrian adding eight goals and two helpers.

Midfielder Facundo Quignon is the big name on the Dallas injury report as he continues to be sidelined by a thigh problem after starting 16 matches earlier in the year. Defender Johnny Nelson (back) and promising young striker Beni Rezdic (ankle) are also sidelined.

Side prediction: FC Dallas +110

Total: Over 3 (+113)

Even though Real Salt Lake may be the better team overall, it is hard to trust on the road at this point with a miserable 3-2-10 record away from Rio Tinto Stadium on the season. FC Dallas has been putting up a decent fight against tough competition lately despite being eliminated from the postseason, and has enough firepower to do some damage against the shaky Real Salt Lake defense.

Real Salt Lake’s defense isn’t particularly good anywhere and gets even worse on the road with 1.98 expected goals per game to rank second-worst in all of MLS, trailing only woeful FC Cincinnati. The offense has to be nearly flawless to make up for that, but has scored a grand total of two goals in its last three road games including a 6-1 blowout at the hands of the Portland Timbers followed by losses two bad opponents in Chicago and Austin FC.

Dallas features a strong attack that has above average metrics overall and has managed to put multiple goals past tough defenses like LAFC and NYCFC in recent weeks. Real Salt Lake has lost six of its last seven road games, and its worth seeing if that continues against a Dallas side that is more talented than its record shows.

Both teams have a good balance of superstar-level attacking talent plus some scoring depth that makes each a difficult offense to stop right now. Kreilach had scored in five consecutive games before last week’s shutout and has been one of the top producers in MLS overall while Pepi has been on fire over the last few months in all competition, which should lead to some fireworks against a pair of defenses that really struggle to keep clean sheets.

Dallas has not done a good job of stopping opponent pressure, ranking in the bottom five across MLS with 1.68 expected goals allowed per game with numbers that don’t get much better at home. The first two meetings between these teams comfortably went over this total, and neither defense has shown enough to indicate that will change on Wednesday.

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Nathaniel Reeves

Nathaniel Reeves is an avid sports fan with degrees in journalism from the University of Washington and statistics from Western Washington University. He's always had a passion for applying statistical analysis to sports betting and has successfully handicapped college football, college basketball, and Esports for years. Nathaniel has endured being a lifelong fan of the Seattle Mariners, along with the Seattle Seahawks, UW Huskies and soon to be Seattle Kraken. He has been a very successful sports bettor the last several years and we are thrilled that Nate has chosen to bring his talents to us here at Winners & Whiners. You would be very wise to follow him daily.


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