FC Dallas vs. Sporting Kansas City Prediction, Preview, and Odds - 8/14/21

FC Dallas will look to keep up its recent surge when it hosts first-place Sporting Kansas City on Saturday night at Toyota Stadium. Sporting Kansas City holds down the top record in the Western Conference and second-best in all of MLS at 10-4-4 after a scoreless draw at the Colorado Rapids last weekend with the tie hitting at +293 odds. Dallas is further back in ninth place at 5-6-7, but has played well lately including a 2-0 home win over Austin FC on last Saturday as a -102 favorite.

These teams met in Kansas City just two weeks ago, with Dallas pulling off a 2-1 upset as a huge +460 underdog. Dallas is unbeaten in six straight against Kansas City and leads the series between the two original MLS clubs 28-17-24.

Kansas City looks for revenge against Dallas

While a midweek Leagues Cup fixture resulted in a 6-1 beatdown loss to Leon of Liga MX on Tuesday, Kansas City has been one of the best teams in MLS action all season, and earned a point in a tough environment at Colorado last weekend. It was not a good showing for either offense, with Colorado generating only a handful of chances and Kansas City only getting one great opportunity in the 66th minute on Alan Pulido’s counterattack.

The Rapids had a slight 53% possession advantage with 13 shots, while none of Kansas City’s six attempts went on target. Standout goaltender Tim Melia made three saves to preserve the shutout and keep Kansas City atop the Western Conference table with a point.

That wasn’t a typical performance for the Kansas City offense, which has usually been strong with an average of 1.83 goals and 15.11 shots per match. Kansas City’s defense is also among MLS’ best, allowing 1.11 shots on 11.27 shots per match, although it only has three clean sheets.

Daniel Salloi is having a monster season to lead the Kansas City offense as one of the best players in MLS with 10 goals and five assists in just 15 starts. Pulido has found the back of the net seven times, while Johnny Russell has played well of late to bring his season numbers to three goals and three assists.

Kansas City is without one of its best young players, as forward Gianluca Busio was recently transferred to Venezia in Italy’s Serie A. Forward Khiry Shelton missed the last game with an abdomen injury, while midfielder Cam Duke is dealing with a hamstring problem.

Dallas unbeaten in four straight, playoff spot in reach

After a slow start to the year, a young Dallas team is starting to climb the table with three wins and a tie over its past four matches against a difficult schedule, and it handled the first-ever MLS meeting with in-state rival Austin FC last weekend. The first half slightly favored Austin, but Dallas opened the scoring in the 50th on a goal from Ryan Hollingshead, with Jesus Ferreira adding another 13 minutes later on a short-range effort.

Austin ended up with 54% possession and both teams recorded 11 shots apiece, although Dallas managed five of those on target. Szabolcs Schön was credited with two assists, while Jimmy Maurer made two saves including a spectacular stop just seven minutes into the game to help Dallas keep a clean sheet.

While things are going much better lately, it’s generally been a struggle for the Dallas offense with an average of 1.28 goals on 12.44 shots per match. Dallas’ defense ranks around the same level with an average of 1.39 goals on 13.88 shots per game while recording shutouts in three matches.

Ricardo Pepi has emerged as one of the most exciting young players in MLS with a team-high eight goals at just 18 years old. Hollingshead leads Dallas with four assists while adding two goals, and Jader Obrian has scored three times.

Defenders Justin Che (leg) and Jose Antonio Martinez Gil (thigh) have both been sidelined the last several matches and are unlikely to play on Saturday.

Side prediction: Kansas City win or draw -110

Total: Under 3 (-140)

Even though Dallas has played well of late, Kansas City has been one of MLS’ best teams throughout the season and has valuable odds to get a result here. Kansas City was a little unfortunate to not get a result in the recent meeting between these two, and will be better this time out as it has a much more well-rounded roster.

Dallas’ offense has still been middling at best during this unbeaten surge, and has just 22.9 expected goals on the season while scoring more than once in only six matches. The playmaking depth for Dallas falls off hard after Pepi, which will make things tough against this Kansas City defense that features a well-organized back line.

The Kansas City offense is the difference-maker, as it ranks near the top of MLS in just about every statistic with a number of strong options, including the superstar Salloli. Bet on Kansas City bouncing back into form and getting at least a draw here, as it has been a strong team on the road all season.

While the last meeting between these teams got to three goals, chances were limited as each offense only had a total of nine goals. Dallas’ turnaround has mostly been to a defense that has allowed just two total goals over the past four games, while Kansas City has been much better in the 13 matches with Melia after the star keeper missed time early in the year with injuries.

Losing Busio is going to be a blow to Kansas City’s offense, as he is a fantastic passer who can also put the ball in from long range. Expect more of a defensive struggle this time as both squads are playing well on that side of the ball.