German Bundesliga Soccer - Bayer Leverkusen vs. Mainz, 6/27/20 - Preview, Prediction & Odds
Chasing a spot in the next season’s Champions League by two points, 5th-placed Bayer Leverkusen will be hoping for a miracle while hosting 13th-placed Mainz, who have won three of their past four games. Kick-off - at 9:30 AM ET on Saturday, June 27.
Leverkusen Fail In Berlin
The chances of Bayer Leverkusen finishing in the top-four of the Bundesliga this season shrunk considerably after the team was shut out with a count of 2-0 by Hertha Berlin away at Olympiastadion last Saturday. Die Werkself controlled the ball 69% of the time but were outshot 14-12, allowing two out-of-the-blue snipes, one in each half, eventually failing to score themselves for the first time in 22 contests in all competitions since being blanked by Hertha 1-0 in the reverse fixture just before Christmas. Sitting 5th in the league (W18 D6 L9), Bayer Leverkusen are two points below 4th-placed Borussia Monchengladbach and need the Foals to lose on Saturday to bank a Champions League spot, providing they manage to beat Mainz themselves.
German playmaker Kai Havertz leads Die Werkself with 12 Bundesliga markers. Goalie Lukas Hradecky, meanwhile, sits 6th in the league with 98 saves. He has registered nine clean sheets in 33 appearances this year and gives up a goal every 68 minutes on average. Bayer Leverkusen have netted the 5th highest number of goals during the ongoing campaign (60), while delivering the 4th highest quantity of shots per game (14.6). The team is 2nd best in ball possession (60.0%) and 3rd in passing accuracy (85.0%).
Mainz Escape Relegation
A second consecutive victory and third in the last four contests (W3 L1) was on the cards for Mainz, who bagged a 3-1 home triumph against relegation-threatened Werder Bremen at Opel Arena last Saturday. Battling for Bundesliga survival themselves, the Zero-Fivers started on the back foot, but turned the game in their favor after first-half strikes from Robin Quaison and Jean-Paul Boetius five minutes apart gave the hosts a 2-0 lead. Edimilson Fernandes also scored for Mainz, who now sit 13th in the league (W11 D4 L18) and can still improve on their 12th-place finish of last year.
With 13 league markers during the current campaign, Swedish-Ghanaian forward Quaison tops Mainz’s scoring table. Goalie Florian Muller, meanwhile, is 21st in the league with 43 saves. He has picked up two clean sheets in 12 contests this year and allows a goal every 43 minutes of play. The Zero-Fivers have buried the 11th highest quantity of goals this season (44) while taking the 7th highest amount of shots per game (13.5). The team is 3rd from the bottom in both ball possession (45.1%) and passing accuracy (75.4%).
Prediction
To qualify for the Champions League next season, Bayer Leverkusen need a victory in this match and Borussia Monchengladbach to lose to Hertha Berlin in a parallel contest. Die Werkself will be entering the game with at least a certain amount of confidence, having already beaten Mainz on the very last four occasions, posting three clean sheets along the way. Still, Leverkusen has lost two of their past three home outings, while the Zero-Fivers have banked three victories in their past four games, beating the likes of Borussia Dortmund and in-form Eintracht Frankfurt. If anything, Mainz are far from being total underdogs against Die Werkself and can keep things close at the very least. The Zero-Fivers have not lost by two or more goals in nine of their past 10 Bundesliga matchups, while 10 of the previous 12 head-to-head encounters between Bayer Leverkusen and Mainz have all won on a Mainz Handicap of +1.5.
Best bet:
Mainz (Handicap +1.5) (+115)