Houston Dynamo vs. Minnesota United Prediction, Preview and Odds - 8/28/21
Western Conference foes will square off on Saturday night when Minnesota United visits the Houston Dynamo at BBVA Compass Stadium. Minnesota currently holds down fifth in the West at 7-7-6 after battling Sporting Kansas City to a scoreless draw at home last Saturday, with the tie hitting at +136 odds. Houston is hoping to climb out of the cellar at 3-10-8 after drawing rival FC Dallas 2-2 at home last weekend at +122 odds.
These teams met just three weeks ago, when Minnesota won 2-0 at home to cut Houston’s lead to 4-4-3 in the all-time series.
Minnesota earns a point against second-place Kansas City
Getting a result against one of MLS’ best teams certainly isn’t a bad outcome overall, but Minnesota will feel like it could have been more after carrying the run of play against 10-man Kansas City last weekend. It was a physical match throughout with a big moment coming in the 21st minute as Remi Walter was sent off for Kansas City, yet Minnesota was unable to breakthrough despite a number of dangerous chances, including a shot hammered off the post by All-Star Emanuel Reynoso just after halftime.
As expected after going a man up, Minnesota had 61% possession and record 24 shots to just 11 for Kansas City. Steering those attempts on target was an issue as only seven of those reached goal, while keeper Tyler Miller made five saves to ensure Kansas City didn’t steal three points.
Finishing continues to be an issue for the Minnesota offense, which is averaging 1.10 goals on 15.6 shot attempts per game. Minnesota’s defense has been stout all season, allowing 1.15 goals and 11.65 shots per match while now keeping six clean sheets.
Reynoso is Minnesota’s top producer with two goals and three assists, in addition to the best advanced metrics of any player on the team. Adrien Hunou has scored twice in addition to being a strong playmaker, while Miller has been terrific in net with 13 goals allowed in 16 starts.
Injuries are a huge storyline for Minnesota right now. Robin Lod, who is Minnesota’s top scorer by far with six goals and three assists in just 12 matches, has been out since the last Houston game with a calf issue and it’s unclear when he might return. Franco Fragapane, who is having a good year with two goals and three assists, is out with a thigh problem. Reynoso was dinged up during the physical Kansas City match and was deemed unable to play in the All-Star Game, which means he is ineligible for this weekend’s contest in Houston.
Dynamo snap four-match losing streak in rivalry tussle
Any bright spots for last-place Houston are welcome right now, and a 2-2 draw over the weekend against in-state foe FC Dallas was a far better result than the Dynamo have typically managed lately. A Fafa Picault penalty conversion gave Houston an initial lead in the 25th minute only for Dallas to score twice quickly just after halftime, but Matias Vera was able to equalize in the 72nd on a shot that deflected off the Dallas defense.
Dallas had more of the ball with 58% possession, although Houston managed a 12-11 advantage in total shots. Zarek Valentin was credited with an assist on the game-tying goal, while keeper Marko Marić made four saves.
Houston’s offense is in the bottom tier of MLS this season with an average of 1.10 goals and 11.52 shots per match. The defense started out strong but has faded lately, bringing its overall numbers to an average of 1.52 goals and 13.66 shots per match while keeping just three clean sheets.
Picault now has six goals and two assists on the season, tied for the team lead in both categories. Maximiliano Urruti is also having a strong campaign with six goals and one assist, while Vera has scored three times.
Tyler Pasher, who has racked up four goals and two assists in 10 matches, is currently dealing with a lower-body injury and is considered questionable for Saturday. Forward Nico Lemoine is out with a groin problem.
Side prediction: Houston Dynamo 0.0 (-125)
Total: Under 2.5 (+105)
With all the problems Houston has as a team, it has managed a decent enough 3-5-1 record at home and is worth betting to at least get a result here. Minnesota is the far better team at full strength, but is unlikely to get a win on Saturday considering the injury situation, as its depth is stretched far too thin to compete with anyone on the road at this point.
It’s unclear where the offensive production is going to come from for Minnesota, as the injured trio of Lod, Fragapane and Reynoso is responsible for nearly half the team’s goals and nine of its 16 assists this year. The last few matches with the injuries piling up have gone as expected for Minnesota, as it has just one goal in its last three matches and the advanced metrics for the 2-0 win over Houston on August 7 are even ugly.
As limited as the Houston offense is, it has a roughly league average 1.47 expected goals per match when playing at home as Picault and Urruti are both good playmakers, which will be enough to outproduce what’s left of Minnesota. Houston is a better team at home than its last-place record indicates, and Minnesota is just too shorthanded to back here.
These are not particularly good offenses even at full strength with both averaging just over one goal per game on the season, and with how many players are out, Saturday should be a defensive struggle. Houston ranks in the bottom seven in expected goals this season, while no team in MLS has put a worse percentage of its attempts on target than Minnesota.
The good news for Minnesota is that its defense has generally been among the better units in MLS, especially when Miller starts as he’s allowing only 0.81 goals per 90 minutes this year. Another scoreless draw isn’t out of the question here, as neither team has much firepower.
