Houston vs. San Jose, Prediction, Preview and Odds - 4/16/21
The two teams with the worst odds to win the 2021 MLS Cup title will square off against each other in the first match of the season on Friday night. San Jose and Houston both enter the season listed at 100/1 to win the title. The Earthquakes made a surprise appearance in the playoffs last year, while Houston finished at the bottom of the Western Conference.
San Jose enters this season with expectations
San Jose enters its third season under Matias Almeyda, who has turned the squad into one of the most entertaining teams in the MLS. He inherited a last-place roster for his first season and has made some improvements during both seasons. The Earthquakes finished eighth in the Western Conference in 2020, racking up 30 points with an 8-9-6 record. They were eliminated in the first round of the playoffs in a match against Sporting KC that went to penalties. Forward Chris Wondolowski has been a star in the MLS for a long time now, coming in as a 38-year-old. He is expected to score key goals for San Jose again this year.
Midfielder Cristian Espinoza was the top offensive player in 2020, dishing out nine assists to go along with three goals of his own. He combines with fellow midfielder Jackson Yueill, who helps control possession and play defensive soccer. San Jose also has 17-year-old midfielder Cade Cowell, who made his MLS debut last season and scored a goal. The Earthquakes play a unique attacking style where they control the match and stay on the front foot. Their weakness last season came defensively on set pieces, which is why they were eventually eliminated by Sporting KC in the playoffs.
Houston needs to replace Ellis and Manotas
Houston enters a new era in 2021 following the departure of two key players in the offseason. Tab Ramos is heading into his second season as the head coach with the Dynamo looking to make an appearance in the postseason. He added several players in the winter, bolstering the roster with experience. Houston is coming off a disappointing 2020 campaign that ended with a last-place finish in the Western Conference. It tallied 21 points, going 4-10-9 in its matches. Former stars Alberth Elis and Mauro Manotas both transferred abroad during the 2020 season. Kiki Struna and Tomas Martinez are both out of the mix as well.
Forward Darwin Quintero was one of the few bright spots for Houston last season. He scored seven goals and notched 10 assists, finishing third in the MLS in total chances created. It was his first year with the Dynamo, so he will be looking to improve on those numbers. Midfielder Matias Vera has started 50 of Houston’s last 57 matches and the 25-year-old will be another constant piece this season. This is expected to be a stronger defensive team than last season after adding several new members. The attack is likely going to dip after the departures of Elis and Manotas, though.
Spread (San Jose +255)
Bettors who have gotten in on the early action have found value on the road underdog in this spot, but I think there is still some value to be had. San Jose was the better team last season and returns more key pieces in 2021. The Earthquakes have shown improvement in both seasons under Almeyda and are going to control the pace on Friday. Houston lacks serious scoring threats after losing its star attackers, which does not bode well against San Jose’s style. The Earthquakes have already dipped from +300 to +255, but I still like them at that price.
Total (Under 3)
All signs are pointing towards Houston being one of the lowest-scoring teams in the MLS this season. The Dynamo lost their two best scorers and added some defensive prowess, so they will be looking to win matches on that end of the field. San Jose likes to control the ball in the midfield and capitalize on scoring opportunities that gradually develop. These teams have combined for just five goals over their last two matches against each other. This is the first match of the season, so both clubs could be rusty on Friday.
