Inter Miami vs. Chicago Fire Prediction, Preview, and Odds - 8/18/21
Two teams looking to get back in the Eastern Conference playoff picture will face off on Wednesday night when the Chicago Fire visit Inter Miami at DRV PNK Stadium. Chicago has played well of late, and moved into 10th place in the East at 5-5-9 after beating the Columbus Crew 1-0 as a +141 home underdog on Sunday. Miami was blanked 2-0 at New York City FC on Saturday as a massive +709 underdog, and is now in 12th place at 4-4-9.
These clubs met for the first time ever back in mid-May, with Chicago winning 1-0 at Soldier Field.
Chicago looks to run unbeaten stretch to five games
While the Fire still have a lot of work to do to climb into playoff position, they have recovered from a terrible start to the season with only two defeats in their last 10 games after blanking Columbus on Sunday. It was a sluggish start with neither offense recording a shot on target until the 23 minute mark, but Chicago looked more dangerous throughout the second half and finally broke through in the 77th on Luka Stojanovic’s goal.
Despite only having 46% possession, Chicago generated more chances with 17 shots to Columbus’ 11 including seven that went on target. Goaltender Bobby Shuttleworth only had to make one save to preserve the shutout, although the Crew did come dangerously close to the equalizer multiple times in the last few minutes of the match.
Chicago’s offense has poor stats for the season with an average of 1.11 goals and 13.84 shots per match, although it has been much better since getting shutout six times in seven games earlier in the season. The defense is also heading in the right direction with an average of 1.53 goals allowed on 14.21 shots per game while keeping four clean sheets, two of which have now come in the last three matches.
Stojanovic now has six goals to easily lead the Fire despite only starting nine matches on the season. Boris Sekulic has added two goals and four assists, while Alvaro Medran has a team-high five helpers.
Chicago is fairly healthy injury-wise, although it did lose an important midfielder at the transfer deadline recently when Przemyslaw Frankowski headed to RC Lens in France. Medran has missed the last two matches with an illness, and while all indications are he shouldn’t be far away from returning, it’s unclear if he will play Wednesday. Defensive midfielder Federico Navarro is still working on a Visa issue after being signed last week.
Inter Miami can’t breakthrough in New York
Following a 2-1 victory against Nashville the prior weekend for its most impressive win of the season, Miami was unable to keep up the good form as it dropped a 2-0 decision at NYCFC on Saturday. NYCFC’s strong first half made the difference with goals in the 20th and 45 minutes, as Miami had a few near misses in the final stages of the night but was unable to find the back of the net.
While NYCFC held 53% possession and limited Miami to seven shots, although the visitors managed a 4-3 advantage in attempts on target. Nick Marsman made two saves for Miami and was unable to stop a NYCFC penalty just before halftime after a clear handball from Kelvin Leerdam.
It’s been a huge struggle to score this season with Miami averaging 0.88 goals on 9.88 shots per match overall. Miami’s defense is only slightly better, with opponents putting up 1.65 goals on 12.33 shots per match, and the team’s lone clean sheet came in a scoreless draw against Nashville way back on May 2.
Designated player Gonzalo Higuain has been Miami’s top producer by far with eight goals and two assists. His brother Federico Higuain leads the team with three assists, while Robbie Robinson is the only other Miami player to score twice this season.
Robinson missed the last match with a head injury and is still questionable, although he has cleared concussion protocol and is back practicing with the team. Defender Joevin Jones is out with a knee injury, while Ryan Shawcross has been in and out of the lineup with an undisclosed injury.
Side prediction: Chicago Fire +0.5 (-115)
Total: Under 2.5 (even)
The Fire looked like the worst team in MLS through the first two months of the season, but have since gotten much healthier and look like a team that could make the playoffs at full strength. This is a manageable matchup against a struggling Miami team that has just two wins in nine home matches this season, and Chicago will at least get a result here.
There’s not much hope that the Miami offense is going to get turned around, as it ranks last in all of MLS with 0.91 expected goals per match this season. As limited as the Chicago defense is, it easily controlled the first meeting back in May, as Miami managed just four total shots with only one on target, resulting in 0.4 expected goals.
Chicago is far from a great offense either, but has much more scoring depth than Miami and is at least averaging 1.7 goals during the 10-match hot streak. Fading Miami has been a good play all season, and Chicago is good enough to win this on the road given its recent form.
With over half its total goals for the season coming from Higuain, Miami is an easy offense to gameplan for as nobody else is offering much in the way of playmaking. Chicago’s defense has keyed the recent turnaround with just two total goals allowed over its last four matches, and has a great chance to add another clean sheet in this one.
The Fire offense isn’t exactly lighting up the scoreboard this season, and losing Frankowski recently with the possibility of their best passer in Medran being out again for this match doesn’t help. This matchup resulted in only one goal last meeting, and another defensive struggle wouldn’t be a surprise here.
