LAFC vs. Colorado Rapids Prediction, Preview and Odds - 5/22/21

LAFC will look to get its 2021 campaign back on track when it hosts the Colorado Rapids on Saturday night at Banc of California Stadium. After entering the season with high hopes, LAFC is in last place in the Western Conference at 1-2-2 after taking a 2-0 road loss to the Seattle Sounders as a +180 underdog on Sunday. Colorado currently holds fourth place in the West at 3-1-1 after taking down the Houston Dynamo 3-1 as a -187 home favorite over the weekend.

These teams have not met since October of 2019, when LAFC rolled to a 3-1 win at home. LAFC leads 3-0-1 dating back to its inaugural MLS season in 2018.

Colorado pushes win streak to three after Dominant effort

Following a sluggish start to the season, the Rapids are quickly rising up the table with three straight victories including a strong showing against Houston over the weekend. It was an electric first half on Saturday, as Colorado got goals from Sam Vines, Diego Rubio and Cole Bassett in a 13-minute span starting at the half-hour mark, and Houston was unable to generate much in the second after getting on the board in the 39th.

Colorado was in control, outshooting the Dynamo 12-8 while holding a massive advantage in possession in 63%. Michael Barrios provided assists on the first two goals for the Rapids, while William Yarbrough allowed one goal on four Houston shots on target.

The Rapids have been hot offensively during their win streak, bringing their season numbers to 1.8 goals per game on 14.6 shots per game. Opponents are putting up 1.2 goals and 10 shots per game on the Rapids, who have kept two clean sheets this season.

Rubio now has two goals for the season and has been Colorado’s most dangerous attacker by expected metrics, while Bassett has also has found the back of the net twice. Jack Price has two assists to match Barrios atop the Colorado leaderboard.

Attacking midfielder Younes Namli missed the last match with a knee injury and his status moving forward is uncertain. Forward Jonathan Lewis was also out against Houston for undisclosed reasons and it's unknown if he will play this weekend.

LAFC’s struggles continue in another loss

After finishing with its worst record since joining MLS last season, LAFC is off to an even shakier start this year as it has not won a match since opening weekend against expansion Austin FC. LAFC managed to hang in for a half on the road against the first place Sounders over the weekend, but generated almost nothing offensively and fell behind with Seattle scoring in the 57th and 73rd.

Each team recorded 10 shots with three on target, and LAFC had a 54% advantage in possession as the Sounders were content to sit back in the second half. LAFC recorded just 0.5 expected goals for the match and was unable to seriously challenge the Sounders net despite the fact that Seattle was playing with a backup goaltender.

Offense has been the main issue for LAFC, which is averaging just one goal per game albeit on a high volume of 13.8 shots per match. Opponents are managing 1.2 goals and 10.8 shots per match against LAFC, which has only kept one clean sheet on the season.

Corey Baird is LAFC’s top performer so far with two goals and an assist. Star Diego Rossi has found the back of the net once, while Jose Cifuentes has one goal and has been LAFC’s best player by expected metrics.

The good news for LAFC is former MLS MVP Carlos Vela was able to return from injury after missing a month to play 21 minutes off the bench, and he should be back closer to full strength this weekend. Bench defender Erik Duenas (ankle) and reserve forward Kwadwo Opoku (knee) are both expected to be out.

Side prediction: Colorado Rapids +0.5 (+120)

Total: Over 3 (+105)

Oddsmakers are still believing LAFC is one of the best sides in MLS, but this is a matchup of two teams heading in opposite directions recently and the Rapids will not be easy to beat given their current form. LAFC can’t seem to get both the offense and the defense to play well at the same time, and until it starts playing like the dominant team we haven’t seen in two years now, Colorado is a good bet at plus odds.

The Rapids featured one of the most creative and prolific offenses in MLS a year ago en route to a postseason appearance, and that unit appears to be back as Colorado has scored seven goals during its three-game win streak following a sluggish start. Expected goals metrics indicate Colorado has been one of the most dangerous offenses in MLS so far this season, and LAFC is yet to show the firepower to keep up.

While Colorado’s defense isn’t among the league’s elite, it looks much improved from a year ago as Yarbrough has played well in net and Sam Vines has made a huge difference on the back line during the win streak after missing the first two games with injury. LAFC has faced a tough schedule, but Colorado looks like a very good team right now, and can at least manage a draw if not pull off the upset.

At some point the high volume of shots on target for LAFC is going to start leading to more goals, and Vela getting healthier will certainly provide a massive boost. While the LAFC offense was dismantled twice by Seattle, who looks on another level right now, it has put up 5.3 expected goals in the other three matches and can do some damage here.

The Rapids play a free-flowing style that is difficult to prepare for with a lot of tempo, so don’t expect either team to sit back in defense. Colorado looks like it will play a lot of high-scoring games this year, and the sheer amount of attacking talent for LAFC should lead to a shootout here.

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Nathaniel Reeves

Nathaniel Reeves is an avid sports fan with degrees in journalism from the University of Washington and statistics from Western Washington University. He's always had a passion for applying statistical analysis to sports betting and has successfully handicapped college football, college basketball, and Esports for years. Nathaniel has endured being a lifelong fan of the Seattle Mariners, along with the Seattle Seahawks, UW Huskies and soon to be Seattle Kraken. He has been a very successful sports bettor the last several years and we are thrilled that Nate has chosen to bring his talents to us here at Winners & Whiners. You would be very wise to follow him daily.


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