LAFC vs. Sporting Kansas City Prediction, Preview, and Odds - 8/4/21

Western Conference contenders will clash on Wednesday night when Sporting Kansas City takes on LAFC at Banc of California Stadium. Kansas City currently owns second place in the West at 9-3-4, although it is coming off a surprise 2-1 home loss to F.C. Dallas on Saturday as a -175 favorite. LAFC drew Minnesota United 2-2 at home last Wednesday with the tie hitting at big +320 odds, and is now in fifth place at 6-5-5.

These teams met back on June 26 with Kansas City picking up a 2-1 win to take a 3-0-2 lead in the all-time series.

Kansas City defeated for first time in six games

A victory over 10th place FC Dallas could have vaulted Kansas City into the Western Conference lead, but it will need to regroup after an upset loss. Dallas, which did not have a victory on the road heading into the weekend, got off to a good start with a goal in the third minute before doubling its lead in the 51st, and Johnny Russell’s header in the 85th wasn’t enough for a Kansas City rally.

Kansas City did carry the run of play as it chased the game, holding 58% possession and a 20-12 advantage in overall shots. Only four of those Kansas City shots went on target, while standout goaltender Tim Melia was only able to stop three of Dallas’ five attempts.

That was an uncharacteristic performance for an elite Kansas City offense that is averaging 1.81 goals and 16.06 goals per game this season. While the defense is closer to average, it’s still done enough, allowing 1.19 goals and 10.56 goals per game with just two clean sheets on the season.

Daniel Salloi has been one of the most productive players in MLS with nine goals and four assists to pace the prolific Kansas City offense. Alan Pulido is also having a strong campaign with six goals, while Russell has now scored three times in addition to his three helpers.

Kansas City will be shorthanded by international duty, as Pulido and outstanding 19-year-old Gianluca Busio both played in the Gold Cup final. Defender Cameron Duke has been dealing with a hamstring problem, while midfielder Felipe Hernandez has been limited to six matches for personal reasons.

Late goal leads to a draw for LAFC

An LAFC side that expected to contend for the Supporters’ Shield is struggling to break into the top ranks of the West, as it settled for a home draw against Minnesota last week. Superstar Carlos Vela opened the scoring in the 40th minute after creating chances throughout the first half and LAFC went up again in the 77th on Tristan Blackmon’s header off a corner kick, only for Minnesota to tie the score 2-2 five minutes into stoppage time from a shot outside the box with just seconds remaining.

LAFC held a 19-7 advantage in overall shots while owning 60% of possession, although Minnesota was more efficient at generating chances as each team had five attempts on target. Jose Cifuentes and Eduard Atuesta each recorded an assist for LAFC to at least help get one point.

After a very slow start, LAFC has played better offensively the last few weeks and is now averaging 1.38 goals and 14.56 shots per match. Defense has been more of a consistent strength, with opponents putting up 1.19 goals and 9.75 shots per game while getting blanked four times.

Despite being limited to 11 starts, Vela has been LAFC’s top player with five goals and four assists on the season. Cifuentes and Diego Rossi have matched him atop the team leaderboard with five goals apiece.

Midfielder Mark-Anthony Kay was the only LAFC player on international duty, and could play on Wednesday as he’ll be a week removed from the Gold Cup semifinal with Canada. Key defender Eddie Segura is not expected to play after suffering a knee injury two weeks ago. Forward Kwadwo Opoku also has a knee problem.

Side prediction: Kansas City +1 (-115)

Total: Under 3 (+105)

While LAFC might be the more talented team on paper, Kansas City has been far more consistently strong this season and is capable of getting a result on the road. Few teams are more balanced than Kansas City, which has only lost three games all season and should not be this big of an underdog.

This is a difficult offense for any team to handle, as Kansas City has piled up 30 expected goals on the season, and has enough depth to make up for some of the missing players on international duty. LAFC will typically carry the run of play but has struggled to turn shots into dangerous chances, as finishing remains a problem even for some of its star players.

Recent struggles could spell trouble for LAFC here, as it is 0-2-1 over its last three matches despite playing Portland, Vancouver and Minnesota, none of whom are even close to Kansas City’s level. Kansas City already has a number of impressive wins including a recent victory at first place Seattle, and will at least challenge LAFC here if not pull off the upset outright.

These are two offenses that can rack up the goals, but the respective defenses have also been tough to break down. LAFC is among the elite in MLS with 14.9 expected goals allowed on the year, while Kansas City has been much better on that side in the 11 matches with Melia after the standout keeper dealt with injuries earlier in the season.

Kansas City’s offense will certainly not be at full strength, as Pulido has over 20% of its total goals on the year while the youngster Busio has provided plenty of playmaking. The first match between these two ended at three goals, and this will be even tougher for both offenses considering the absences.